Good Afternoon. Global companies just paid a record $2.09T in dividends—good news, the checks are still clearing. But the U.S. consumer is getting more K-shaped by the quarter, with debt at $18.2T and stress still concentrated at the bottom. Add surging power demand from data centers and Nvidia’s report after the close, and today’s theme is simple: cash is strong and the pressure points are too.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

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1. Nasdaq Pops as Nvidia Earnings Loom

The News: Stocks rose Wednesday as the AI complex continued to rebound from Monday’s selloff, with investors laser-focused on Nvidia earnings after the close. Nvidia shares were up about 2%, helping push the Nasdaq up ~1.2%–1.3%. The S&P 500 and Dow were up less than 1%. AI-adjacent winners ran too—Western Digital, Palantir, and Applied Materials were up 4%+—while AMD cooled off after Tuesday’s surge. Software names kept recovering, though Workday whipsawed after weaker guidance. Netflix popped about 6% after chatter that Warner Bros. Discovery is weighing a new bid from Paramount Skydance.

Why It Matters: This is the market trying to regain its footing by going back to the one thing it can quantify: earnings. Nvidia is the AI scoreboard—if it prints clean numbers and guidance holds, it stabilizes the whole “AI buildout is real” narrative (chips, networking, data centers). If it disappoints, the market’s recent rebound risks turning into a classic head fake, especially with software investors still jumpy about AI competition and pricing power. Either way, Nvidia results won’t just move Nvidia—they’ll move everyone’s confidence in the AI capex cycle.

What to Watch: Watch Nvidia’s guidance language on Blackwell/Rubin demand and delivery timing. Watch whether the rally broadens beyond the usual AI suspects; when participation widens, it’s less fragile. And watch how software reacts post-Nvidia: if chips are strong but software still struggles, the market is telling you the AI winners are upstream, not the app layer.
Source: wsj.com

2. Trump Pitches a “TSP-Style” Retirement Plan With a $1,000 Federal Match

The News: In Tuesday night’s State of the Union, Trump said private-sector workers without employer retirement plans will get access to a federal-style account similar to the Thrift Savings Plan, with the government matching contributions up to $1,000 per year. The proposal targets tens of millions of workers who don’t have workplace plans—Washington Post and Barron’s framed the pool around ~54 million uncovered workers. Semafor also reported ahead of the speech that the administration had been exploring ways to stand up a program without going through Congress.

Why It Matters: If this becomes real (and funded), it’s one of the few retirement ideas that’s actually aimed at the “I don’t have a 401(k)” population instead of just giving more tax advantages to people already maxing theirs out. The potential upside is portability and simplicity—one account that follows you job to job—plus a match that could matter for lower- and middle-income workers. The hard part is implementation: getting broad participation typically requires automatic enrollment and clear funding authority, and multiple sources note that bigger structural moves would likely need Congress.

What to Watch: Watch for the first real details on eligibility and how the match is delivered (standalone program vs. tied into Secure 2.0’s Saver’s Match). Watch whether the White House claims it can do this via executive action or starts pushing for legislation—because “announced” and “appropriated” are two very different verbs.
Source: barrons.com

3. U.S. Consumer Debt Hits $18.2T

The News: U.S. consumer debt hit $18.20 trillion by the end of 2025, with growth accelerating versus prior years, according to Equifax’s Q4 2025 Market Pulse report. Equifax said delinquencies have eased from recent highs but remain above pre-pandemic norms: 5.7% of consumers had at least one payment 60+ days past due in December, down from 6.8% in Q3. Credit-card balances rose to $1.12T (+4.1% YoY), while the 60+ day card delinquency rate dipped to 3.03%. Average card utilization stayed around 21.2%, helped by higher credit limits (+6.5% YoY) more than lower usage.

Why It Matters: This is the “consumer is fine… and also not fine” story in numbers. Higher-income households are riding asset gains and expanding credit, while subprime borrowers are still pinned—Equifax put subprime card utilization around 75.6%, which is basically “no breathing room.” That split matters because it shapes everything from retail earnings to bank credit losses: the top end can keep spending even as the bottom end quietly breaks. And once payment stress spreads, it doesn’t just hit cards—it spills into autos, rent, and utilities.

What to Watch: Watch student loan stress: severe delinquency on non-deferred balances was 16.39%, and Equifax warned that restarted wage garnishment could reshuffle “payment hierarchies” (meaning people may stay current on the garnished item and fall behind elsewhere). Watch auto leasing growth (lease balances up 7.6% YoY to $95.8B) as consumers chase lower monthly payments—a classic late-cycle signal. And watch how much “relief” tax refunds provide this spring; if delinquency improvement stalls after refund season, the underlying strain is still building.
Source: investor.equifax.com

4. Renewables Hit a Record 26% of U.S. Power

The News: U.S. electricity generation hit another record in 2025, snapping the long stretch of mostly flat demand and kicking off what analysts are calling a new growth era driven by AI data centers and broader electrification. The EIA put 2025 power-sector generation at about 4,260 billion kWh (up 2.7%), while Ember estimated demand growth of 3.1% (about 135 TWh). Renewables (wind/solar/hydro/biomass/geothermal) reached a record 25.7% of U.S. electricity, up from 24.1% in 2024. Solar was the breakout—generation up about 28% in 2025, and Ember said solar supplied 61% of the year’s demand growth.

Why It Matters: The U.S. grid is no longer in “slow growth, retire plants, add a little wind/solar” mode. Data centers are turning electricity into the binding constraint for AI, and that changes everything: utilities’ capex, permitting fights, and the economics of what gets built next. The weird twist is we’re doing two transitions at once—building tons of clean capacity while also delaying retirements to keep the lights on. That’s why coal retirements got pushed back and why batteries suddenly matter: it’s not just generating power, it’s generating it when and where the load shows up.

What to Watch: EIA is projecting a record 86 GW of new capacity, with solar and storage doing most of the heavy lifting, and that’s the best near-term scoreboard for how fast the grid can scale.
Source: electrek.com

5. “SuperAgers” Grow Way More New Brain Neurons

The News: A new Nature study found adults over 80 with exceptional memory (“SuperAgers”) generate at least 2× as many new neurons in the hippocampus as cognitively normal peers their age—and roughly 2.5× more than people with Alzheimer’s. Researchers used multiomic single-cell sequencing on about 356,000 cell nuclei from postmortem hippocampal tissue to map neurogenesis (stem cells → neuroblasts → immature neurons) and identify a distinct “resilience signature” in SuperAgers’ brain environment.

Why It Matters: This is rare “receipts” for cognitive resilience: not just that some older adults stay sharp, but a plausible biological mechanism for why. If neurogenesis and the supporting cellular environment (astrocytes/CA1 neurons) really differ this clearly, it points toward future therapies aimed at preserving synapses and the brain’s ability to keep building and integrating new neurons. The important caveat: sample sizes are small (a common limitation in postmortem brain work), so this is promising direction—not an “anti-Alzheimer’s breakthrough” headline.

What to Watch: Watch for follow-up studies that replicate the “resilience signature” in larger cohorts and connect it to real-world factors like exercise, inflammation, sleep, and metabolic health and watch drug-development chatter around synapse preservation and astrocyte pathways; that’s where this could eventually turn from cool science into something actionable.
Source: nature.com

1. Global Dividends Hit a Record $2.09 Trillion in 2025

The News: Global dividend payouts rose to a record $2.09 trillion in 2025, up 7% from the prior year, according to Capital Group’s Dividend Watch (tracking ~1,600 listed companies). “Core” dividends (adjusted for FX, specials, and calendar quirks) grew 6%, and 30 of 46 markets in the index posted record payouts. Capital Group expects dividends to reach $2.2 trillion in 2026 (about +5.4%).

Why It Matters: This is the underappreciated “income” side of the equity story: even in choppy markets, companies kept writing checks. Financials drove the biggest chunk of growth (roughly two-fifths of the increase), while tech was the surprise standout—software and IT services pushed software dividends to a record $64.1B. For investors, it’s a signal that earnings quality and balance sheets were strong enough to support payouts, which tends to cushion returns when multiples are volatile.

What to Watch: Watch whether 2026’s projected growth holds if cyclicals stay soft—Capital Group flagged weakness in areas like mining/energy/autos and Australia, and those sectors can swing payouts fast. Watch Japan in particular; it led dividend growth at ~12.5%, and if that shareholder-return shift continues, it’s a structural tailwind for the “Japan is back” trade.
Source: smcp.com

2. Cuba Says Coast Guard Killed 4 on Florida Speedboat

The News: Cuba’s Interior Ministry said four people were killed and six others wounded after a Florida-registered speedboat entered Cuban waters on Feb. 25 and opened fire on Cuban forces, who returned fire. Cuba said all four fatalities were on the speedboat, and the commander of a Cuban border patrol boat was also wounded. The injured “foreign attackers” were evacuated and received medical care, and Cuba said it’s investigating what happened.

Why It Matters: This is a sudden escalation risk in a relationship that’s already tense—especially with Havana under heavy pressure from a U.S.-backed squeeze on oil shipments, which Reuters notes has tightened the screws on Cuba’s economy. Incidents like this can harden political postures quickly, even before facts are fully known (who was on the boat, why they were there, whether it was smuggling, etc.).

What to Watch: Watch for a U.S. response (State/Coast Guard) and any confirmation of the identities/nationalities of those on board, since Reuters reported those details were not provided in Cuba’s statement and whether Cuba releases more evidence from its investigation (location, weapons, motive), because this will determine whether it stays a one-off border incident or becomes a broader flashpoint.
Source: reuters.com

3. Ray Dalio: The “Post-1945 Order” Is Dead

The News: Ray Dalio says the post-WWII world order has “officially” broken down and we’re entering a period of “great disorder,” citing rising great-power conflict, debt, and the erosion of rules-based norms. In a Feb. 14 post titled “It’s Official: The World Order Has Broken Down,” Dalio pointed to the Munich Security Report 2026 (“Under Destruction”) and its warning about “wrecking-ball politics.” Dalio followed up Feb. 24 with a long essay, “Investing In Light Of The Big Cycle,” urging investors to rethink classic stock-and-bond allocations.

Why It Matters: Dalio’s big point isn’t “doom”—it’s correlation risk. In periods of trade wars, capital controls, sanctions, and inflation shocks, the normal 60/40 playbook can fail at the same time on both sides. That’s why he keeps emphasizing diversified “all-weather” positioning and real-asset exposure—especially gold (which he’s repeatedly framed as an asset that isn’t someone else’s liability).

What to Watch: Watch whether today’s policy path starts looking more like Dalio’s “capital war” framing—more tariffs, more tech export controls, and more financial weaponization—because that’s what changes portfolio behavior fast. Watch real yields and inflation expectations; if they re-accelerate, the “cash flow now” / hard-asset trade tends to stay in charge. And watch whether gold remains bid even on risk-off days—if it does, that’s the market quietly agreeing with Dalio’s core thesis.
Source: linkedin.com

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