Good Afternoon. Walmart’s printing cash and buying back stock, snack giants are retooling for GLP-1 appetites, and oil is back to trading geopolitics instead of supply-demand spreadsheets.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow Slips as Oil Hits Its Highest Since Summer

The News: Stocks dipped Thursday as investors digested earnings and a geopolitics-fueled surge in oil. Brent rose about 1.9% toward $72 a barrel, extending Wednesday’s jump, after reports of a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East revived fears of a potential strike on Iran—and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Walmart initially popped on strong results but later gave back gains as the broader market softened.

Why It Matters: Higher oil is the fastest way to sneak inflation back into the conversation—because it hits shipping, airline costs, and gas prices before it shows up in a CPI chart. And the Hormuz angle is the big one: when markets start pricing “tail risk” around a chokepoint, crude can move faster than supply-demand math. For investors, that’s a double whammy: energy costs squeeze margins for everyone not named “oil producer,” and it makes the Fed’s “maybe cuts later” story harder to sell if inflation expectations reheat.

What to Watch: Watch Middle East headlines for concrete escalation signals—deployments, sanctions, direct warnings because crude is trading probability / headlines, not facts, until something actually breaks.
Source: wsj.com

2. Walmart Announces a Record $30B Buyback After an Earnings Beat

The News: Walmart announced a new $30 billion share repurchase authorization—its largest ever—after wrapping up its prior $20B program that began in November 2022. The company said it bought back roughly 189.5 million shares for $16.1B under that authorization, and repurchased 85 million shares for $8.1B in fiscal 2026 alone. The buyback headline landed alongside Q4 results that beat expectations: revenue was $190.7B (+5.6% YoY) and adjusted EPS came in at $0.74 (vs. $0.73 expected). Walmart also raised its annual dividend to $0.99, extending its dividend-growth streak to 53 years.

Why It Matters: This is Walmart using its “steady cash machine” status like a weapon. A $30B buyback is a loud message: management thinks the stock is a good use of capital even after joining the $1 trillion market-cap club. For investors, the story is the mix—Walmart is still a defensive retailer, but it’s increasingly getting paid for higher-margin engines like e-commerce (+24%) and advertising (+37%), which can cushion margins even when shoppers get price-sensitive. The watch-out is guidance: if the FY2027 EPS range ($2.75–$2.85) disappoints, buybacks don’t fix the near-term growth narrative—they just soften the landing.

What to Watch: Watch how Walmart talks about consumer trade-down and discretionary categories over the next quarter, because the “Walmart wins in weak times” thesis depends on share gains holding up.
Source: stock.walmart.com

3. PepsiCo and Kraft Heinz Start Rebuilding for the GLP-1 Era

The News: Big food and beverage companies are spending real money to adapt to GLP-1 weight-loss drugs changing how Americans eat. Roughly 20% of U.S. households now include at least one GLP-1 user, and PwC/Numerator data suggest GLP-1 users consume ~40% fewer calories—with desserts down 84% and alcohol down 33%. At CAGNY this week, PepsiCo said it’s “restaging” four major brands (Lay’s, Gatorade, Quaker, Tostitos) that total $15B+ in revenue, while Kraft Heinz’s new CEO announced a $600M brand refresh plan instead of splitting the company. EY-Parthenon estimates the shift could mean $12B in lost snack sales over the next decade.

Why It Matters: This is the snack-and-soda industry realizing the pharmaceutical industry is now a competitor. If GLP-1 adoption keeps rising (and gets cheaper), the old playbook—sell more ounces to more people—gets harder, especially for impulse categories built on “mindless” snacking. The pivot is from volume → value: smaller portions, higher protein/fiber, “cleaner” ingredient labels, and products that feel compatible with appetite suppression. Investors should read this as a margin and mix war, not just a marketing refresh. Consumers will just notice the new reality: more “protein” on the front of the box and fewer “family size” vibes.

What to Watch: Watch whether companies start breaking out GLP-1 exposure in guidance and if insurers expand coverage and prices fall, this moves from “trend” to “structural,” and the pantry will keep changing faster than the commercials.
Source: reuters.com

4. Crypto Debuts Big “Institutional” Moves at Mar-a-Lago

The News: The Trump family’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, hosted an invite-only “World Liberty Forum” at Mar-a-Lago with a very on-the-nose guest list: Goldman CEO David Solomon, Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman, NYSE President Lynn Martin, CFTC Chair Michael Selig, plus Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, per Reuters. World Liberty announced a partnership with Apex Group (>$3.5 trillion in assets under administration) to pilot its USD1 stablecoin for fund flows tied to tokenized assets, and said it plans to tokenize loan revenue interests connected to a Trump-branded Maldives resort project via Securitize and DarGlobal. Reuters also reported USD1 has surpassed $5B in circulation.

Why It Matters: This is the crypto industry’s endgame in one room: stablecoins + tokenized assets + regulators + Wall Street + politics, all shaking hands. If USD1 is actually used for fund subscriptions/redemptions, that’s a step toward stablecoins becoming boring infrastructure (the goal), not just trading chips. But the political overlay is the risk: when a stablecoin is tied to a high-profile political family while Congress is debating the CLARITY Act, the regulatory optics get radioactive fast—especially around conflicts, disclosures, and whether rules get written in ways that “accidentally” favor certain players.

What to Watch: Watch the CLARITY Act timeline and any stablecoin provisions (especially around yield, reserves, and oversight), since the fine print will decide who wins the next era of tokenized finance.
Source: reuters.com

5. Netflix Slips While YouTube Captures More TV

The News: Netflix is still hanging near its 52-week low (~$77), down roughly 40% from last year’s highs, as YouTube keeps widening its lead in “what people actually watch on TV.” Nielsen data shows YouTube at 12.7% of U.S. TV viewing time versus Netflix at 9%. YouTube also dwarfs Netflix on revenue scale: Alphabet says YouTube is now a $60B+ annual business, versus Netflix’s $45.18B in revenue. Netflix’s fundamentals aren’t falling apart—Q4 revenue grew 17% YoY, and it’s guiding $50.7B–$51.7B in 2026 revenue with a 31.5% operating margin target.

Why It Matters: This is the attention economy getting brutal. Netflix is fighting a premium, paid subscription model against a free, ad-powered machine with infinite creator supply and better ad targeting—especially for under-30 viewers who treat YouTube like default TV. Even if Netflix grows and margins expand, the market’s starting to price the bigger risk: streaming isn’t a two-horse race anymore, it’s “TV vs. the internet,” and the internet is winning on hours watched. That’s why the Warner deal matters too—Netflix is basically paying up for more must-have IP to keep people choosing “play next episode” instead of “scroll forever.”

What to Watch: Watch Nielsen share trends—if YouTube keeps pushing above that 12.7% while Netflix stays flat, the narrative gets harder to fight with earnings alone. Watch Netflix ad-tier metrics (ad revenue, CPMs, user growth), because competing with YouTube increasingly means competing in advertising, not just subscriptions.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

1. Scientists Pull the Deepest-Ever Core from Under Antarctic Ice

The News: Researchers drilled a 228-meter sediment core from beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the deepest geological sample ever recovered from under any ice sheet. The SWAIS2C team pulled it up from Crary Ice Rise near the Ross Ice Shelf after melting through 523 meters of ice, with early signals suggesting the record could span roughly 23 million years of climate history. It took three seasons to pull off, after earlier attempts were derailed by technical issues, and the core is now headed to labs for dating and analysis.

Why It Matters: This is basically a time capsule. Models can estimate how ice behaves above 2°C warming, but a sediment core tells you what actually happened the last time Earth ran hot—including whether this vulnerable part of West Antarctica retreated and left open water behind. That matters for everyone with a coastline: West Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea level by roughly 4–5 meters if it fully melted. No, that’s not “next year,” but it’s the kind of long-tail risk that changes infrastructure, insurance, and where cities invest (or stop investing).

What to Watch: Watch for the first published results on timing and retreat cycles—when did this ice pull back, how fast, and under what temperatures and ocean conditions.
Source: straitstimes.com

2. Mexico Becomes America’s Top Export Market

The News: Mexico became the No. 1 destination for U.S. merchandise exports in 2025, edging out Canada for the first time since NAFTA began in 1994, per U.S. Census Bureau trade data. U.S. exports to Mexico hit $337.96B, versus about $336.5B to Canada. Mexico also stayed the U.S. largest overall trading partner for a third straight year, accounting for about 15.6% of total U.S. trade, with U.S. imports from Mexico at $534.87B in 2025. The overall U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was about $901.5B in 2025, little changed from the prior year.

Why It Matters: This is the “North America is one factory” story getting a new headline. The U.S. and Mexico aren’t just trading finished products—they’re co-producing cars, electronics, and aerospace components across the border, which is why Mexico can be both a top supplier and the top customer. For investors, it’s a reminder that tariffs and threats don’t automatically unwind supply chains—companies optimize around them.

What to Watch: Watch the USMCA review in July 2026, because this export milestone becomes negotiation ammo on both sides.
Source: nytimes.com

3. U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Hit a Record $1.24 Trillion in 2025 (Tariffs and All)

The News: The U.S. trade gap widened sharply at year-end: the goods-and-services deficit jumped to $70.3B in December 2025, up $17.3B from $53.0B in November, as imports rose 3.6% to $357.6B and exports fell 1.7% to $287.3B. For the full year, the goods deficit hit a record $1.24T, even as the overall goods-and-services deficit was basically flat at $901.5B. A big driver: imports of capital goods like computer accessories and telecom equipment, which multiple reports tied to AI/data-center buildouts.

Why It Matters: This is the awkward truth about tariffs: they can reshuffle where the U.S. buys from, without automatically shrinking how much the U.S. buys. The data show the China goods deficit fell (trade diversion worked), but deficits widened with other places (supply chains rerouted). And in late 2025, the deficit got juiced by exactly the stuff the U.S. is trying to build more of—chips, networking gear, and “AI infrastructure” inputs.

What to Watch: Watch whether the deficit stays elevated as AI capex continues; imports of capital goods are a good proxy for how much hardware is still getting pulled into the system.
Source: wsj.com

Q: Why did the frog take the bus to work?

A: His car got toad.

The minimum amount of energy required to initiate a chemical reaction.

“Enzymes lower the activation energy needed for reactions to proceed in the body.”

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