Good Afternoon. The economy is sending mixed signals and the market is listening to all of them at once. Oil just broke below $55, job growth is slowing, and consumer spending is losing momentum, even as regulators open the door to bank-issued stablecoins. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow slips as softer jobs data and $55 oil hit energy stocks

The News: U.S. stocks were mixed Tuesday after delayed labor data showed a cooling job market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest in more than four years. The Dow fell as energy shares dragged, while the S&P 500 headed for a third straight loss and the Nasdaq recovered late to turn positive. Oil prices dropped to their lowest level since February 2021. Treasury yields declined as investors digested weaker hiring and downward revisions to prior job gains.

Why It Matters: This was a “good news, bad news” market day and neither side fully won. Softer hiring and falling yields support the case for easier Fed policy, but sliding oil prices and rising unemployment also underscore slowing demand. Energy stocks felt the pain first, but the broader message is that growth is cooling just as investors are debating what 2026 will bring, another boom or a bump landing?

What to Watch: Watch whether weakness spreads beyond energy into broader cyclicals or if cheap oil quickly turns from market warning sign into profit fuel. Also keep an eye on revisions: shutdown-delayed data has a habit of quietly rewriting the narrative weeks later. For now, markets are doing what they do best, reacting first, reconciling later.
Source: wsj.com

2. Retail sales stall as unemployment ticks higher

The News: U.S. retail sales were flat in October, missing expectations for modest growth, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November, according to delayed government reports released Tuesday after the 43-day shutdown. Employers added just 64,000 jobs in November, following a revised loss of 105,000 in October, signaling a cooling labor market. While headline spending stalled, a key “control group” measure rose 0.8%, driven by online shopping and department stores. The data arrives as the Fed has already delivered three rate cuts and is debating whether more relief is needed.

Why It Matters: This is the economic version of mixed signals — the consumer isn’t fully stalled, but the engine is clearly losing RPMs. Higher-income households are still spending freely, while lower-income consumers are pulling back, reinforcing a K-shaped economy that makes policy choices harder and politics louder. Meanwhile, rising part-time work and softer hiring suggest businesses are quietly bracing for slower growth, even if no one wants to say “recession” out loud yet.

What to Watch: Watch whether job losses spread beyond government and into private payrolls, that’s when sentiment usually turns fast. Also watch January retail data closely: holiday spending will tell us whether consumers were cautious… or just waiting for better deals. For now, the economy isn’t falling off a cliff but it’s definitely peering over the edge, checking the weather.
Source: usnews.com

3. U.S. oil slides below $55 as global supply glut deepens

The News: U.S. crude prices fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since early 2021. The selloff reflects a growing global oversupply, as record U.S. production and rising output from Brazil, Canada, and Guyana overwhelm modest demand growth. The International Energy Agency now expects global oil supply to exceed demand by nearly 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, even as consumption growth slow, particularly in China, where EV adoption is lowering fuel demand.

Why It Matters: Oil prices are entering what analysts describe as a potential new lower-price regime. For consumers, that means cheaper gasoline, now averaging about $2.95 a gallon in the U.S., the lowest since 2021. For producers, especially higher-cost drillers, it signals margin pressure, tougher investment decisions, and potential consolidation. Lower energy prices also ease inflation pressures globally, giving central banks more breathing room.

What to Watch: Watch how OPEC+ responds if prices stay depressed, especially whether deeper production cuts return to the table. Progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks could add further downside by bringing more Russian oil back to market. On the demand side, signals from China and U.S. driving data will help determine whether prices stabilize or slide further, which a further slide is good for everyone, just not so good for investors.
Source: reuters.com

4. FDIC lays groundwork for banks to issue stablecoins

The News: The FDIC approved a proposed framework that would allow FDIC-supervised banks to apply to issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries. The move is the agency’s first concrete step toward implementing the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July, which sets a federal pathway for stablecoin issuance. The proposal outlines a tailored application process focused on safety and soundness, with a 60-day public comment period. Final rules must be in place by July 2026, ahead of the law taking effect in January 2027.

Why It Matters: This marks a major shift from crypto regulation-by-enforcement to regulation-by-rulemaking. By giving banks a clear path to issue stablecoins, regulators are signaling that dollar-backed digital tokens are moving closer to the financial mainstream. If banks step in, stablecoins could become safer, more regulated competitors to traditional payments, while also reshaping how money moves across borders, settles trades, and interacts with blockchain infrastructure.

What to Watch: Watch whether large U.S. banks like JP Morgan Chase actually apply to issue stablecoins or wait on the sidelines. Coordination among the FDIC, OCC, and Federal Reserve will be key, as will upcoming public comments that could shape capital, reserve, and disclosure requirements. Also keep an eye on how non-bank issuers like Circle and Ripple adapt as banks inch into their territory. Never a dull moment when you’re rebuilding global financial infrastructure.
Source: fdic.gov

5. Goldman bets 2026 boom favors boring stocks over AI darlings

The News: Goldman Sachs says the market is underestimating a coming 2026 economic acceleration and investors may be looking in the wrong places for gains. In a recent report, the bank forecast stronger earnings growth in cyclical sectors like Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate, driven by faster GDP growth and easing tariff pressures. Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise 12% next year, while tech EPS growth slows modestly from 26% in 2025 to 24% in 2026.

Why It Matters: After years of AI doing all the heavy lifting, Goldman’s message is simple: the next leg of the market may look less like Silicon Valley and more like a factory floor. If growth does reaccelerate, earnings leverage favors companies tied to real-world demand, steel, shipping, shopping, not just server racks. In other words, the boom may come from the stocks no one’s been bragging about at dinner parties.

What to Watch: Watch whether capital actually rotates out of mega-cap tech and into cyclicals or if investors just keep hedging with Nvidia calls “just in case.” Also keep an eye on tariff policy and fiscal signals in early 2026: if growth momentum firms up, the market may finally stop treating Industrials like it’s still 2019. Sometimes the trade doesn’t need to be flashy, it just needs to work.
Source: businessinsider.com

1. European gas prices stay chill

The News: European natural gas prices held near their lowest levels in almost two years, with benchmark Dutch TTF futures trading around €27 per megawatt-hour. Abundant liquefied natural gas imports and strong Norwegian supply have offset rising winter heating demand, weaker wind generation, and colder weather. Prices are now roughly 45% lower than earlier this year, underscoring a dramatically improved supply picture compared with recent winters.

Why It Matters: Energy costs were one of Europe’s biggest economic and political risks just two years ago. Sustained low gas prices ease pressure on households, reduce inflation, and improve industrial competitiveness across the EU. The stability also signals that Europe’s rapid shift away from Russian gas — toward LNG and diversified suppliers — has meaningfully strengthened energy security.

What to Watch: Keep an eye on winter weather patterns, LNG flows, and European storage drawdowns as temperatures drop. Any breakthroughs in Russia-Ukraine peace talks could push prices even lower, while prolonged cold snaps or supply disruptions would test how durable this new, calmer gas market really is.
Source: tradingeconomies.com

2. South Korea raises corporate taxes to fund stimulus push

The News: South Korea’s Cabinet approved a bill raising corporate income tax rates by one percentage point across all brackets, reversing cuts enacted in 2022. Large firms earning over 300 billion won will now face a 25% tax rate, with increases applied across smaller brackets as well. The move supports President Lee Jae-myung’s shift toward expansionary fiscal policy, alongside a record 728 trillion won ($550B+) 2026 budget.

Why It Matters: Seoul is turning up the fiscal volume, less K-pop encore, more government remix. By reversing business-friendly tax cuts, the new administration is betting that stimulus spending will do more for growth than corporate tax relief. It’s a clear pivot toward state-led support as the economy slows, even if it risks making boardrooms a little less enthusiastic about their next big performance.

What to Watch: Watch whether Korean corporates respond by dialing back investment, boosting dividends, or passing costs along and whether stimulus delivers enough growth to justify the higher taxes. If the economy doesn’t bounce, this fiscal track could start to sound off-key, fast.
Source: koreatimes.co.kr

3. OpenAI recruits ex-UK chancellor to take Stargate global

The News: OpenAI has hired former UK Chancellor George Osborne as managing director of its “OpenAI for Countries” initiative, tasking him with leading the international rollout of the $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure project. Starting January 2026, Osborne will oversee partnerships with governments looking to build sovereign AI data centers, localized ChatGPT services, and national AI startup funds. The effort extends Stargate beyond the U.S., where OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank are racing to build 10 gigawatts of AI capacity.

Why It Matters: When AI gets geopolitical, you hire a politician, preferably one who’s balanced a few budgets and survived Parliament. OpenAI’s move signals that the next phase of the AI race isn’t just about chips and models, but treaties, data sovereignty, and who gets to write the rulebook. Stargate’s pitch is clear: democratic AI rails, now available internationally, no authoritarian firmware required.

What to Watch: Watch which countries sign up first and how fast Stargate turns into a global diplomatic roadshow, Davos next month looks like the soft launch. Also keep an eye on how OpenAI balances “neutral AI platform” branding with an expanding role as a quasi-infrastructure partner to governments. Once you hire a former chancellor, the politics have officially entered the chat.
Source: reuters.com

Q: Why did the innocent picture go to jail?

A: Because it was framed.

✅ Watch: The 10 best movies of 2025 according to the Atlantic.
✅ Get Matched: Take the quiz matches your lifestyle with the right dog breed.
✅ Up to $3,000 Bonus: See the brokerage account that’s now offering up to $3,000 in stock when you open and fund a new account*. Get started now.

*A message from our sponsor or affiliate link.

An individual or institution legally obligated to act in another party’s best interest, especially in financial or trust matters.

“As a fiduciary, the advisor was required to put his clients’ interests ahead of his own.”

Grit Capital: Get weekly deep dives on markets, stocks, and investing strategies used by 270K+ investors, hedge funds, billionaires, and advisors. Sign-up here.