Good Afternoon. Today’s market mood? Bullish with a side of meme stock mania. Between Trump’s trade deal blitz and Krispy Kreme’s sugar-fueled stock surge, it’s a weirdly wonderful day on Wall Street. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Trump floats eliminating capital gains tax on home sales

The News: President Trump is considering eliminating federal capital gains taxes on home sales, a move that would mark the first major change to residential capital gains policy in nearly 30 years. Under current law, sellers can exclude up to $250,000 in gains ($500,000 for couples), but these limits have never been adjusted for inflation—leaving millions of homeowners exposed as home prices have surged. The White House says the policy aims to unlock housing inventory and boost a sluggish market, though any change would require Congressional approval.

Why It Matters: Eliminating the capital gains tax on home sales could provide a windfall for longtime owners and those in expensive markets, making it easier for seniors and empty nesters to sell, we’ll see you in Hawaii grandma, and potentially easing America’s housing shortage. However, most of the benefits would go to wealthier homeowners, and critics warn it could reduce government revenue. With inventory at historic lows and affordability at crisis levels, any change to capital gains rules could have sweeping effects on buyers, sellers, and the broader real estate market.
Source: cbsnews.com

2. US home sales hit nine-month low as prices reach records

The News: U.S. home sales fell to a nine-month low in June as surging prices and high mortgage rates sidelined many would-be buyers. According to the National Association of Realtors, contract closings dropped 2.7% to an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, below economists’ expectations. The median sale price soared to a record $453,300—up 7.2% in just one month—while mortgage rates hovered near 6.8%. The result: affordability is at crisis levels, with nearly 15% of pending sales falling through and sellers increasingly forced to cut prices or pull listings off the market.

Why It Matters: Like a polar bear’s toes, today’s housing market is frozen. Highlighting just how urgently policymakers are searching for solutions—like Trump’s proposal to eliminate capital gains taxes on home sales. With so many homeowners sitting on huge paper gains (but unable or unwilling to move because of tax penalties and high prices), the lack of inventory is locking up the entire system. Removing the capital gains tax could encourage longtime owners to sell, freeing up inventory and potentially easing upward price pressure. But with affordability still out of reach for many buyers, real relief will likely require broader action on interest rates, supply, and tax policy to truly unfreeze the market.
Source: realtor.com

3. Meme stocks are so back

The News: The meme stock frenzy has roared back with GoPro surging 50% and Krispy Kreme up over 30% in pre-market trading as social media-fueled retail traders target heavily shorted stocks. Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets and similar forums have become rallying points for investors seeking the next big short squeeze, propelling shares of companies like Kohl’s, Opendoor, and Beyond Meat to outsized gains—even when there’s little fundamental news.

Why It Matters: Don’t get caught up in the hype, the rug will be pulled before you know it. While the buzz creates opportunities for quick gains, it also brings extreme volatility and the risk of being left holding the bag when the hype fades. With market optimism high and more money coming off the sidelines, the meme stock resurgence is both a sign of retail empowerment and a fresh warning that speculative frenzies can reappear at any time—often untethered from a company’s financial reality.
Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Hershey raising chocolate prices by double-digits as cocoa costs soar

The News: Hershey is raising retail chocolate prices by up to 20%, with most products set to cost more due to surging cocoa prices and “shrinkflation” (smaller package sizes). The Pennsylvania-based company said the move was necessary to offset historic highs in cocoa costs, which hit $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 and remain at $8,100—well above previous norms. Other chocolate giants like Lindt and Mondelez have also hiked prices as West African cocoa production faces crop disease, bad weather, and aging trees.

Why It Matters: Sorry for those with a sweet-tooth or the pros with a “chocolate cupboard,” you’ll will be paying more—and often getting less—for your favorite treats as the cocoa crisis squeezes global supply and drives up prices industry-wide. With West Africa’s crop outlook still shaky, experts expect cocoa inflation to persist, raising costs for both companies and consumers.
Source: foxbusiness.com

5. Google's AI search summaries slash website traffic by half

The News: A new Pew Research Center study finds that Google’s AI-powered search summaries—“AI Overviews”—are dramatically slashing website traffic, with users clicking traditional search results just 8% of the time when an AI summary appears, compared to 15% without one. Even more striking, only 1% of users clicked on links within the AI-generated summaries themselves. The feature, now present in about one in five Google searches, has publishers and online businesses alarmed as click-through rates plummet and more users end their browsing sessions entirely after seeing an AI Overview.

Why It Matters: Get ready for consolidation in media and local news to get hit hard. The rise of Google’s AI search summaries threatens the web’s longstanding traffic and revenue models, intensifying concerns that content creators, news outlets, and e-commerce sites could see their livelihoods undermined by disappearing referral traffic. As fewer users click through to source websites, publishers face shrinking ad revenue and heightened pressure to adapt or seek alternatives—especially as the search giant’s AI features become more prevalent.
Source: pewresearchcenter.com

1. Global stocks surge after US-Japan trade deal

The News: Global stocks rallied sharply Wednesday after President Trump announced a breakthrough trade deal with Japan, slashing tariffs on Japanese imports to 15% (down from a threatened 25%) and securing a $550 billion Japanese investment pledge in U.S. infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing. The Nikkei 225 soared 3.5% to its highest level in a year, with Japanese automakers leading the surge. The agreement also opens Japanese markets to more American cars and farm goods, while reciprocally lowering tariffs on both sides.

Why It Matters: The deal delivers much-needed relief to global investors who had feared a new round of trade wars ahead of Trump’s August 1 deadline for higher tariffs. With Japan’s automotive sector and U.S. exporters both benefiting, the agreement signals potential for further tariff rollbacks with other major trading partners. The result: renewed optimism in equity markets worldwide, especially for sectors and regions most exposed to U.S.-China trade tensions. If more deals follow, it could mark a turning point for global growth and market stability this summer. Wouldn’t that be nice?
Source: nippon.com

2. India, UK to sign historic trade deal Thursday

The News: India and the UK will sign a landmark Free Trade Agreement on Thursday, ending three years of negotiations between the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies. The deal will slash or eliminate tariffs on nearly all goods traded between the countries. India will cut duties to zero on 99% of its exports to Britain, while the UK will lower tariffs on 90% of its exports to India, including major reductions for whisky and cars. The pact, India’s first with a Western nation in over a decade, is projected to more than double annual bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030.

Why It Matters: This agreement represents the most significant post-Brexit trade deal for the UK and a pivotal moment for India’s global economic strategy. Lower tariffs will benefit a wide range of industries—from textiles and engineering in India to whisky, autos, and medical devices in Britain potentially creating new jobs and boosting growth on both sides. It’s a good day for Britain to help stimulate their sluggish economy.
Source: news.sky.com

3. China’s tech talent are making big strides

The News: Chinese tech talent is making global waves, with startups like Lovart—a San Francisco-based AI design app led by former ByteDance exec Melvin Chen—launching innovative A.I. tools aimed at North American users. Chinese developers are increasingly building AI apps for international markets, leveraging open-source models and rapid development cycles to challenge Western dominance.

Why It Matters: This shift signals China’s evolution from domestic tech powerhouse to a global force in A.I. applications. By focusing on real-world use cases and fast innovation, Chinese teams are expanding user choice, driving down costs, and intensifying global competition in the A.I. economy. If you don’t have any global exposure in your portfolio, now might be the time.
Source: cnbc.com

Q: Why don’t skeletons fight each other?

A: They don’t have the guts.

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The statement or proposition that logically follows from the premises of an argument; the final point derived from reasoning.

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