Good Afternoon. On November 9, 1989, East German guards opened the Berlin Wall to crowds. People crossed a border that had split their city, friends and families for 28 years.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

In this edition

Supplied by StockTwits. ONEQ tracks the Nasdaq Composite; IEF holds U.S. Treasury bonds; GLD tracks gold. These three references are ETFs.

The read: The S&P 500 posted its biggest gain since April as oil prices fell. The rally recovered part of last week’s losses, rather than erasing the damage. Cheaper fuel offered some cost relief after a rough stretch for stocks tied to the AI boom.

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Constellation is making more money from electricity—and lining up more plants to sell it from. The extra power won’t all arrive at once.

Third-quarter profit reached $5.19 a share, up from $2.97 a year earlier. Adjusted operating profit was $5.06 a share, versus $3.04. That measure leaves out certain gains and costs.

Part of the jump came from Calpine, which joined the company in January. This year’s results include a larger business, rather than just more growth from the same plants.

A newly announced $715 million deal would add a 609-megawatt gas plant in Rhode Island. The purchase still needs regulatory approval.

Its nuclear plans take longer. A Google deal announced in October backs upgrades that would add 890 megawatts across 11 nuclear units. The first extra output is expected in 2028. Signed contracts can help fund the work; they don’t make new power available overnight.

Constellation raised the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted profit outlook and narrowed the range to $12.50–$12.80 a share. The earnings forecast improved today. Some of the new nuclear supply remains years away.

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💳 Steady price fears, more worry about debt

Americans’ price outlook barely budged. Their worry about paying the bills did. Households put the average chance of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months at 13.8%. That rose 1.6 percentage points in October, reaching its highest level since December 2025.

The New York Fed’s survey also found that expected income growth slipped to 3%. Expected inflation over the next year stayed at 3.9%. Those are households’ views of what lies ahead, rather than a count of bills already missed.

📦 More sales, with oil doing much of the work

U.S. wholesalers sold a lot more in September, but the jump wasn’t spread evenly. Sales rose 2.8% from August to $840.1 billion. Petroleum sales surged 18.8%, while sales of cars, furniture and computers fell.

Goods held in stock grew a slower 0.7%. At September’s sales pace, those goods would last about 1.21 months, down from 1.34 months a year earlier. These are seasonally adjusted dollar totals. Higher prices can lift them, so a bigger sales bill doesn’t prove more goods changed hands.

💼 KKR’s big return is headed to clients

KKR expects to return more than $40 billion to clients this year. That would beat its previous yearly record by more than half. It’s money flowing back from investments, rather than $40 billion in company sales or shareholder dividends.

The investment firm’s own business grew, too. Third-quarter management fees reached $1.20 billion, up from $1.06 billion a year earlier. Profit tied to fees rose 27% to $1.32 billion. That profit measure leaves out some costs and gains. Those fees help KKR earn money while it manages clients’ assets, alongside income from selling investments.

New home building is weak. Ferguson still found more business selling the pipes, parts and equipment that keep buildings running.

Third-quarter sales rose 9.5% to $9.03 billion. Growth was 7% before acquisitions and business sales. Buying other firms helped, but it wasn’t the whole story.

U.S. sales to non-residential customers grew 15%, while residential sales rose 6%. Ferguson gained business despite soft home building and repair work.

Profit from running the business rose 4.9% to $885 million. Profit per share fell, largely because last year benefited from the timing and size of tax breaks. Sales growth and per-share profit don’t always move together.

Ferguson now expects about 7% sales growth for calendar 2026. That higher forecast includes FloWorks, the business it bought in August.

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ANZ’s profit jumped. The size of that jump depends on what you compare it with.

The Australian bank earned A$7.27 billion in the year ended September 30, up 23%. Its preferred cash-profit measure, which strips out certain items, rose 31% to A$7.59 billion.

Leave out last year’s large special items, and cash-profit growth comes down to 10%. The rebound is still there. It’s just smaller when both years use a more similar base.

On that basis, operating costs fell 7%, while income rose 1%. Cutting costs did much of the work. The bank also set aside more money for possible loan losses.

ANZ kept its full-year dividend at A$1.66 a share. A much bigger profit hasn’t turned into a bigger yearly payment to shareholders.

🚢 More exports, a smaller trade surplus

Germany sold more abroad in September, yet its trade surplus shrank. Exports rose 2% from August, while imports climbed 4.2%. The surplus fell to €15.6 billion from €17.9 billion. Sales to EU countries grew, but exports to the U.S. and China fell. These early figures remove calendar and seasonal swings.

💻 Monday’s growth faces a slower quarter

monday.com’s sales grew 19% to $377.5 million in the third quarter. Its next forecast is slower: about 14% growth in the fourth quarter. The Israeli software firm says its shift toward AI brings short-term hurdles. Profit from running the business reached $31.2 million, versus a $2.4 million loss a year earlier.

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🥸 Dad Joke of the Day

Q: What do you call a dinosaur with an extensive vocabulary?

A: A thesaurus.

📖 Vocab Word of the Day · Organic growth

Organic growth: Growth from the business a firm already runs, instead of from buying another firm. It can come from selling more, raising prices or finding new buyers. Some firms also remove changes in exchange rates from this figure.

In a sentence: Ferguson’s organic growth shows that new deals weren’t its only source of higher sales.

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