Good Afternoon. If you’re wondering what drives markets right now, the answer is simple: rates, realism, and a little bit of sci-fi. The Fed is pumping the brakes on cuts, Bitcoin is feeling it, and credit stress is creeping up the ladder. Meanwhile, we’ve got nuclear batteries, robotaxi fleet rumors, and Musk pitching an AI satellite factory… on the moon.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Fed Less Likely to Make Cuts After Jobs Surprise

The News: A trio of Fed officials warned this week against more rate cuts, saying easing too soon could leave inflation stuck closer to 3% than the Fed’s 2% target. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued the policy rate may already be near “neutral” and that if inflation doesn’t keep cooling, no further cuts may be needed. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack echoed that rates could be “on hold for quite some time.” The hawkish tone landed after the January 2026 jobs report beat forecasts: payrolls rose 130,000 (vs. ~70,000 expected) and unemployment fell to 4.3%, reinforcing the case for patience with the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%.

Why It Matters: “higher for longer” is not what people who want to refinance their mortgage want to hear. Mortgage rates don’t move one-for-one with the Fed, but fewer expected cuts generally keeps borrowing costs sticky. For investors, the signal is that the Fed is prioritizing inflation risk over growth insurance—bad for rate-sensitive assets that were counting on a steady glide path down, and supportive for the dollar and short-term yields if markets reprice the “cut calendar.” Translation: the Fed wants proof inflation is truly breaking, not just being calm.

What to Watch: Next catalysts is any inflation news ahead of the March 2026 Fed meeting—especially whether officials keep stressing “neutral” (implying the bar for cuts is high) or start highlighting labor-market cooling.
Source: reuters.com

2. Hot Jobs, Cold Crypto

The News: Bitcoin fell as much as 3.8% to about $67,100 on Feb. 11, 2026, after a stronger-than-expected January jobs report nudged markets toward a “Fed holds” view for March. Ether also dropped roughly 3%–4%, and other major tokens slid in sympathy.

Why It Matters: Crypto still trades like a high-beta rate bet: when investors think borrowing costs stay higher for longer, the present value of risk assets gets marked down, and leverage comes out of the system fast. For crypto users, this matters because crypto weakness tends to tighten conditions across the ecosystem—wider spreads, lower “earn” yields, and less willingness from lenders/exchanges to subsidize perks. For investors, the mixed jobs picture (strong January headline, ugly revisions) is the worst of both worlds: enough strength to keep the Fed cautious, plus enough uncertainty to keep volatility elevated.

What to Watch: The next catalyst is January CPI on Feb. 13, 2026—a softer print could revive cut hopes and stabilize crypto, while a hotter number risks pushing Bitcoin further downAlso watch whether rate-hold probabilities keep climbing into the March meeting—crypto’s mood swings tend to follow that line more than earnings season.
Source: cryptonews.com

3. Startup Aims to Turn Spent Nuclear Fuel into Military Batteries

The News: Project Omega, a Rhode Island startup, emerged from stealth on Feb. 11, 2026, pitching a plan to recycle spent nuclear fuel into long-duration “battery” power sources and nuclear-industry materials. The company says it raised an oversubscribed $12 million seed round led by Starship Ventures and is working with DOE’s ARPA-E and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on early testing and demonstrations. The timing fits a broader U.S. policy push: DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy said on Feb. 5 it awarded $19 million to five companies to advance used-fuel recycling R&D, framing spent fuel as an “untapped resource.”

Why It Matters: If this category works, the consumer payoff is indirect but real: more reliable “always-on” power for defense and critical infrastructure and a less grid-constrained path for high-end electronics (and eventually data centers), which can reduce the odds of energy becoming the bottleneck that shows up in everyone’s bills. Turning a politically and literally toxic waste stream into a strategic input has a long road to go. Nuclear recycling has a long history of economics not penciling out fast and regulatory + nonproliferation constraints.

What to Watch: A named ARPA-E demo timeline, third-party validation of performance (power output, lifespan, safety), and a first contracted use case (likely defense sensors/drones) that proves someone will actually buy “nuclear batteries” at scale. Nuclear waste doesn’t move quickly until it becomes “cheap energy.”
Source: forbes.com

4. Musk Wants an “AI Satellite Factory” on the Moon

The News: Musk told xAI employees in a company-wide meeting on Feb. 10, 2026 that the company ultimately needs a moon-based manufacturing facility to build AI-powered satellites and launch them into orbit via a “mass driver” (an electromagnetic catapult), according to The New York Times. The moon pitch landed amid leadership churn: reports say six of xAI’s 12 original founders have now departed. The vision also follows the recently announced SpaceX–xAI combination (reported valuation around $1.25 trillion) that Musk has framed as tying together launch, satellites, data, and AI.

Why It Matters: this is less “moon base soon” and more a signal that AI’s next constraint is power + compute, and Musk is marketing a radical answer: move some infrastructure off Earth. If markets buy that narrative—even partially—it can reshape where capital goes (launch, satellite comms, space hardware) and how regulators think about orbital congestion and safety. The near-term read is governance and execution risk: bold infrastructure visions can attract financing and talent, but founder departures in a model-race era can also hint at internal strain, shifting priorities, or hard tradeoffs on product performance and safety

What to Watch: Real-world proof points: any mention of mass driver prototypes, lunar manufacturing partnerships, or regulatory filings tied to “compute satellites.” Also watch xAI’s org chart—whether Musk replaces departed technical leaders with credible operators—and whether the combined SpaceX/xAI machine ships concrete products (satellite-enabled compute services, Starlink-integrated AI, etc.) before the moon pitch becomes another “someday” slide.
Source: techcrunch.com

1. Hyundai in Talks to Supply 50,000 Autonomous Vehicles to Waymo

The News: Hyundai Motor is reportedly in talks to supply Waymo with up to 50,000 IONIQ 5-based autonomous vehicles by 2028, a potential order worth roughly $2.5 billion at ~$50,000 per vehicle. The report hasn’t been confirmed by either company, but it lands as Waymo ramps its commercialization push after a $16 billion funding round announced Feb. 2, 2026 that valued the business at about $126 billion. Waymo also points to rapid scaling—roughly 15 million rides in 2025—as it expands to more cities and needs more hardware to match demand.

Why It Matters: More vehicles is the difference between “cool demo” and “reliable ride”: bigger fleets typically mean shorter wait times, wider service areas, and fewer surge bottlenecks. This is the real business model test—robotaxis don’t scale on slide decks, they scale on factories, supply chains, and unit economics. A mega-order would also signal that Waymo is moving from bespoke fleet builds to something closer to a repeatable “vehicle platform + driver stack” model—good news for OEMs that can become the default chassis for autonomy.

What to Watch: Watch for an official Hyundai/Waymo announcement (or a quiet “no comment” that says plenty), plus any detail on pricing, delivery cadence, and where the vehicles are built and deployed. The real test for these cars isn’t the demo, it’s Tuesday at rush hour.
Source: theverge.com

2. Big Tech Finds the Side Door Around the $100K H-1B Fee

The News: Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are discussing ways to minimize exposure to President Trump’s $100,000 fee for new H-1B visas by recruiting from categories that don’t trigger it—like existing H-1B holders, students, and workers on other visa types. One big “legal cheat code” is Optional Practical Training (OPT), which lets foreign grads work for a year (and up to three years total for STEM grads) before needing an H-1B—meaning companies can defer or avoid paying the fee in many cases. Meanwhile, the administration has also reshaped the annual March lottery for 85,000 new visas to favor higher-paid workers, another advantage for giants that can bid up salaries and/or place workers in overseas offices.

Why It Matters: This tilts the job market toward employers with the most “immigration plumbing”: big firms can keep hiring globally, while smaller companies lose candidates to places that can offer OPT-to-H-1B pathways, higher pay, or a fallback office abroad. For consumers and innovation, that matters because startups are often the ones pushing new products and price pressure, especially in AI and specialized fields like healthcare tech. If the fee functions like a scale tax, you get more talent concentrated inside incumbents and fewer challengers getting off the ground. In other words: the policy may reduce small-company hiring more than foreign-worker hiring.

What to Watch: Watch the March 2026 H-1B lottery under the new wage-weighted rules and whether startup hiring shifts more aggressively to OPT pipelines (Georgia Tech-style feeder schools) or overseas hubs as a workaround. The fee isn’t just a cost; it’s a competitive advantage you either can arbitrage or you can’t.
Source: wsj.com

3. USMCA on Exit Watch

The News: President Donald Trump has privately asked aides why the U.S. shouldn’t withdraw from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), according to Bloomberg reporting published Feb. 11, 2026, as the pact heads toward its mandatory review window by July 1, 2026. Under the agreement, any country can leave with six months’ written notice—a procedural detail that turns rhetoric into a real countdown if formal notice ever drops.

Why It Matters: The fastest impact wouldn’t be prices at the checkout—it’d be uncertainty that raises costs behind the scenes (shipping contracts, inventory buffers, and “just in case” supply-chain spending), which eventually shows up in sticker prices. USMCA is the operating system for North American manufacturing (autos, parts, ag, industrial goods). Even a credible threat to rip it up can freeze capex, pressure cross-border dealmaking, and widen the range of outcomes for tariffs aka a volatility tax on anything tied to North American trade.

What to Watch: Any formal notice (that’s when the six-month clock matters), and for signals that the administration is using withdrawal talk as leverage ahead of the July 1, 2026 review—especially if officials start floating a rewrite or separate bilateral deals. Also watch corporate pushback from autos, agriculture, and industrials, because they’ll be first to lobby when “maybe” turns into “paperwork.”
Source: bloomberg.com

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