Good Afternoon. On this day in 1962, Andy Warhol unveiled his Campbell's Soup Cans at Ferus Gallery in Los Angeles — 32 canvases, one for each variety, priced at $100 apiece. Nobody bought them.

Today a single can sells at auction for around $12 million, which is either a lesson in patience or a warning about ever selling anything. The chip pullback that spooked everyone Tuesday looked like a gift by Thursday afternoon, as chips led the market back up.

Only Wednesday's Fed minutes hung around as a reminder that nobody — not even the people running monetary policy — quite knows where this is going.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: +5.38% — how much AMD jumped today after Fundstrat's Tom Lee called this week's chip selloff a buying opportunity with an 88% historical hit rate.

1. AMD leads the chip comeback

The news: AMD jumped 5.38% to $545, Broadcom added 3.95%, and the SMH semiconductor ETF gained 2.76%. Intel also climbed roughly 5% on the same wave. Fundstrat's Tom Lee called the recent chip pullback a buying opportunity, noting the "structural bull case is intact" and that the memory-and-semi unwind is in its later stages. He pointed to an 88% historical win rate for chips in the month following comparable selloffs.

Why it matters: This is the third leg of a whiplash week — Monday rebound, Tuesday DeepSeek scare, Thursday recovery. When AMD is leading rather than Nvidia (which slipped 0.45% today), it usually means buyers are looking beyond the obvious names and rotating into second-tier winners. That's a healthier setup than a one-stock rally, and it's what Lee was pointing at when he cited the 88% historical hit rate. The dip-buyers won this round.

What's next: TSMC reports next Thursday, and its guidance on gross margins and 2026 capex sets the tone for the whole sector into August.

Source: 24/7 Wall Street

2. PepsiCo's North America headache

The news: PepsiCo fell 3.69% to $137.25 after reporting Q2 EPS of $2.20, a penny below the $2.21 consensus. Revenue came in at $24.18 billion, beating estimates on 6.4% growth. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance but flagged that results could land at the low end of the 4-6% core EPS growth range, with weak North America volumes offsetting international strength.

Why it matters: When PepsiCo says the U.S. consumer is tapped out, it's not just a soda story. It's a read on grocery budgets, wallet-share losses to private labels, and the broader inflation hangover finally catching up with household spending. Consumer staples were supposed to be defensive — the boring stocks you own when everything else is going sideways. Today they weren't, and that's the tell.

Big picture: Watch Coca-Cola's report next week — if KO echoes the same weakness, the whole staples sector needs a rethink.

Source: CNBC / AP

3. Airlines take off

The news: Delta added 1.51% to $88.61 on its Q2 report, American gained 4.33%, and United rose 2.53%. Delta released numbers this morning and hosts its call Friday. The broader lift came from crude's sharp reversal, with USO down 3.34% on the day and jet fuel costs following.

Why it matters: Airlines are the most oil-sensitive stocks on the market, and every dollar off a barrel of jet fuel drops almost straight to the bottom line. Add Delta setting a positive tone into earnings season, and you've got a sector that traders had written off just three weeks ago suddenly getting a second look. It's also a small vote of confidence in summer travel demand — which matters, because Q3 is where legacy carriers make most of their annual profit.

Bottom line: Delta's Friday call will tell us whether this is a one-day pop or the start of a real airlines rotation — and management commentary on domestic bookings is the number to listen for.

Source: Reuters

4. Fed minutes reveal a split house

The news: Yesterday's June FOMC minutes showed a divided committee. Some members made the case for a rate cut given cooling job data, while others argued a hike could still be warranted if inflation reaccelerates. The minutes said "both sides expressed arguments" — a rare acknowledgment that officials genuinely disagree on the next move.

Why it matters: A split Fed is a scared Fed. It means nobody at the table is confident about the inflation path, which raises the odds of policy mistakes in either direction. That's why the 10-year is stuck near 4.3%, why the VIX won't fully deflate below 20, and why every fresh data point gets three different interpretations by lunch. Uncertainty at the Fed feeds uncertainty in markets.

What's next: Next Wednesday's CPI report becomes the tiebreaker — a soft read gives doves the mic, a hot one hands it back to hawks.

Source: Yahoo Finance

5. Silver breaks out

The news: The silver ETF SLV climbed 2.68% to $54.24 as the metal extended a multi-week rally. Analysts point to a fourth consecutive year of structural deficit, with a 215-million-ounce supply gap in 2025 and solar demand alone eating 160 million ounces. Some Bank of America notes have floated $100/oz as a Q4 2026 possibility.

Why it matters: Silver has a split personality — half industrial metal, half safe haven. Right now both halves are working: solar panels need it, EV wiring uses it, and investors nervous about a divided Fed want it as insurance. Gold gets the headlines and hit $3,780 an ounce this week, but silver is running harder off a much smaller float. That's why the gold-to-silver ratio has compressed all year.

Big picture: If solar deployment keeps growing at its current pace, the deficit gets worse before it gets better — and central-bank buying only makes the math tighter.

Source: Barron's

6. SK Hynix's $29B U.S. debut

The news: South Korean memory giant SK Hynix prices its U.S. ADR listing tonight, with trading set to begin Friday under the ticker SKHY. The offering covers 17.79 million shares as 177.9 million ADSs at a 10-to-1 ratio, aiming to raise roughly $28-29 billion. Initial reference is 242,500 won per share.

Why it matters: This is one of the largest foreign listings in Nasdaq history and lands right in the middle of a chip narrative that can't decide if it's bullish or bearish. Hynix supplies the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that AI accelerators need — the stuff that sits next to every Nvidia and AMD training chip — so it's a direct proxy for AI capex. And now U.S. investors can hold it without a Seoul brokerage account.

What's next: Watch the first-day trading action Friday for the market's real verdict on AI memory demand.

Source: Reuters

7. Oil fades the ceasefire drama

The news: Brent slipped 0.21% to $77.86 and WTI eased 0.20% to $73.37, with the USO ETF down 3.34% on the day. The move came despite Trump saying at yesterday's NATO summit that the Iran ceasefire "is over" and threatening to strike again. Traders shrugged.

Why it matters: A month ago that same statement would have added $5 to a barrel of crude. Today it barely moved the needle. Markets are learning to separate rhetoric from action, which is a healthy sign — but also a risky one if actual disruption follows. Strait of Hormuz traffic remains open, U.S. inventories are ample, and Chinese demand hasn't spiked despite the geopolitical noise. The bear case for oil is slowly getting stronger, one shrug at a time.

Big picture: The next real oil catalyst is OPEC+'s late-July meeting, not the next presidential press conference.

Source: Reuters

8. Nikkei catches the AI updraft

The news: Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 1.47% at 67,743, briefly gaining more than 1,600 points intraday before profit-taking trimmed the advance. AI-linked names led the way, following overnight strength in U.S. tech. The Topix added a more modest 0.41%.

Why it matters: When the Nikkei catches this kind of updraft, it usually means global money is chasing the AI theme into every corner it can find. Japanese chip-equipment makers like Tokyo Electron and Advantest are the biggest beneficiaries — they sell picks and shovels to TSMC, Samsung, and now SK Hynix's newly-listed U.S. incarnation. A weaker yen at 162 to the dollar helped too, since roughly half of Nikkei revenues come from exports.

Bottom line: Japan's tech market is now correlated tighter than ever with Nasdaq — good on green days, brutal on red ones.

Source: Japan News

Q: Why did the can crusher quit his job?

A: Because it was soda pressing.

A chart plotting interest rates on bonds of equal credit quality but different maturities, typically Treasury debt from 3 months out to 30 years. When short rates rise above long rates (an "inversion"), it's historically one of the more reliable recession signals. When the curve steepens with long rates climbing, it usually means the market is pricing in stronger growth or higher future inflation.

"When she saw the flat yield curve* she started worrying about the recession odds."*

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