Good Afternoon. AI is splitting into two businesses: the kind that prints cash today and the kind that prints capex invoices. Meta proved the ad-machine version works; Microsoft reminded everyone adoption takes time. Apple, meanwhile, just bought audio AI that could make Siri useful without making you speak. Quiet progress.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Microsoft Trips the Tech Narrative

The News: A Microsoft-led tech selloff dragged markets on Jan. 29, 2026, with the Nasdaq down about 0.8% to 1% intraday as investors punished slower cloud growth and higher AI infrastructure spending; other enterprise names like ServiceNow, Workday, and Salesforce also slid, while Meta bucked the trend with a post-earnings rally. Commodities stayed jumpy: gold swung sharply, briefly nearing $5,600/oz before pulling back, while Brent pushed above $70/bbl on reports President Trump is weighing new strikes on Iran.

Why It Matters: For consumers, this is the “rates + geopolitics” combo meal: oil spikes can filter into gas and shipping costs, while gold’s surge is continues to be the market’s anxiety index in metal form. For investors, the day reinforced a theme of markets are differentiating between AI that monetizes quickly (Meta) and AI that demands massive capex first (Microsoft) and they’re pricing that gap in real time.

What to Watch: Watch Apple’s earnings after the close for whether “ambient AI” can show tangible payoffs (and whether it changes the mood in megacap tech), and watch the Iran headlines—Brent’s move suggests traders are no longer treating this as purely rhetorical risk.
Source: wsj.com

2. Meta’s AI Prints Cash; Microsoft’s AI Prints Capex

The News: Meta and Microsoft delivered the same headline — “AI” — and got opposite report cards. Meta reported Q4 revenue of $59.89B (+24% YoY) and EPS of $8.88 (both above expectations), then said it expects 2026 capex of $115B–$135B as it pours money into AI infrastructure; the stock popped on the idea that ads are already paying for the buildout. Microsoft also beat, with revenue of $81.3B (+17% YoY) and a cloud backlog that more than doubled to $625B, but investors fixated on Azure growth slowing to 39% and capex jumping to $37.5B (+66%), sending shares lower.

Why It Matters: Meta’s AI payoff is immediate (better targeting, more relevant ads, more ad dollars), which helps keep its core machine humming without a margin panic. Microsoft’s story is the tougher sell: enterprise AI requires workflow change, training, and integration and the bill arrives before the productivity shows up. For investors, this is the new AI scoreboard: not “who has the coolest model,” but “who can turn AI into revenue faster than it turns into power bills.”

What to Watch: Meta’s next test is whether it can keep ad momentum while scaling spending, its Q1 revenue outlook of $53.5B–$56.5B set a high bar. Microsoft’s is whether Azure re-accelerates as capacity comes online and whether capex growth cools from here; even Reuters notes the company remains constrained by how fast it can add compute. AI is still the future, but Wall Street is now asking for receipts.
Source: reuters.com

3. Super Bowl Spots Hit $10 Million

The News: NBCUniversal says some 30-second ads for Super Bowl LX (Feb. 8, 2026) have sold for as much as $10 million, up from an initial $7 million ask, with standard units now around $8 million and several placements above $10 million as inventory tightened. NBCU also bundled many buys with commitments across other tentpoles (including Peacock and major sports like the 2026 Winter Olympics), and it sold out Super Bowl inventory by September 2025, earlier than any prior broadcaster. On streaming, Digiday reported NBCU pitched $3 million for a 30-second Peacock-only spot, often requiring additional Peacock spend that effectively raises the minimum package.

Why It Matters: This pricing arms race shows where marketing budgets are concentrating: one game, one night, and the biggest remaining mass audience that can still justify “reach” at any cost. It’s a sign the Super Bowl has morphed into a cross-platform purchase, not a single ad—linear plus streaming plus surrounding inventory—raising the barrier for challengers while letting giants buy cultural oxygen. For NBCU and the NFL, it’s proof that premium live events remain the ultimate pricing power story in media, especially as advertisers chase younger viewers who increasingly watch via streaming.

What to Watch: Watch Peacock’s delivery and audience metrics on Feb. 8, buyers are explicitly scrutinizing stream quality and peak viewership because “premium CPM” doesn’t survive buffering issues. Also watch the mix of new advertisers and categories (health, wellness, and tech are pushing in), because where brands spend at $10 million a pop is a decent proxy for where they think growth lives.
Source: cnbc.com

4. Apple Buys “Silent Speech”

The News: Apple confirmed on Jan. 29, 2026 that it acquired Israeli audio-AI startup Q.ai, with the Financial Times valuing the deal at about $2 billion—one of Apple’s largest acquisitions. Q.ai builds machine-learning systems to improve audio and communication, including interpreting whisper-level speech and enhancing performance in noisy environments; patent filings tied to the company describe “silent speech” methods that infer speech intent from facial skin micromovements. The team (about 100 people) will join Apple, led by Aviad Maizels, who previously founded PrimeSense, acquired by Apple in 2013.

Why It Matters: This is a potential leap in hands-free computing: if Apple can decode speech better it could make AirPods, Vision Pro, and Siri feel more usable in public, noisy spaces, or quiet settings where you don’t want to talk to your phone like it’s your coworker who can’t hear well. For Apple, it’s also a strategic AI move that fits its hardware-first playbook—buy capability, integrate deeply, and ship it as a feature that’s hard to copy without the device stack. And at ~$2B, it signals Apple is willing to spend real money to accelerate “ambient” AI experiences, not just add another chatbot button.

What to Watch: Watch for product clues in the next 12–18 months: new AirPods capabilities, Vision Pro interaction upgrades, and any Siri roadmap specifics that tie to on-device sensing and privacy. The future of voice assistants may be…less voice.
Source: reuters.com

5. Dow Joins the Layoff Week

The News: Dow Inc. said on Jan. 29, 2026 it will cut about 4,500 jobs (roughly 13% of its ~34,600 workforce) as part of a “Transform to Outperform” restructuring aimed at boosting profitability by $2 billion, with a heavy emphasis on AI and automation. Dow guided Q1 sales of $9.4B, below analysts’ $10.33B estimate, and said it expects $1.1B–$1.5B in total restructuring charges through 2027, including $600M–$800M in severance costs. The news lands in a broader job-cut drumbeat—Amazon confirmed ~16,000 corporate layoffs this week as it reshapes around efficiency and AI.

Why It Matters: This is the clearest version of the current labor market: companies aren’t collapsing, they’re reallocating—trimming headcount to fund automation, data centers, and “self-help” programs. Widespread white-collar cuts can still dent spending and sentiment even if layoffs stay concentrated; the Conference Board’s latest read has confidence at its lowest since 2014, which tends to show up first in discretionary purchases. For investors, Dow’s guidance is the tell: weak demand and pricing pressure are forcing cost actions, not just “strategy.”

What to Watch: Watch whether Dow’s cost actions translate into measurable margin stabilization by mid-2026, management is promising a $2B profitability lift, but chemicals cycles don’t cooperate on command. Also watch whether the layoff wave broadens beyond tech into industrials and transportation (UPS has also flagged major job cuts tied to volume changes). The economy may be “resilient,” but the org chart is not.
Source: abcnews.com

1. Siemens Takes Germany’s Crown

The News: Siemens became Germany’s most valuable listed company on Jan. 29, 2026, after SAP shares fell as much as ~15%–17%, their biggest one-day drop since 2020, on cloud guidance investors found underwhelming. SAP forecast 2026 cloud revenue growth of 23%–25% and signaled slightly slower growth in current cloud backlog, while announcing a share buyback of up to €10 billion. The whiplash also hit the broader software tape, with investors increasingly sensitive to whether “AI everywhere” is a tailwind or a margin and pricing problem.

Why It Matters: This is a reminder that in enterprise software, the market doesn’t pay for “good”—it pays for acceleration, and cloud backlog optics can matter as much as headline earnings. It’s the new reality of AI-era expectations: customers are signing bigger transformation deals that ramp later (great for long-term stickiness), but the market punishes anything that looks like near-term deceleration. And for Europe Inc., Siemens taking the top spot is symbolic: old-line industrials with tangible demand can suddenly look like the “steady” trade when software guidance wobbles.

What to Watch: Watch SAP’s next updates on current cloud backlog and deal mix—management says sovereign-cloud and larger transformation contracts can distort near-term metrics, but investors will want proof in the numbers.
Source: reuters.com

2. China Retires the “Three Red Lines”

The News: China has effectively wound down its “three red lines” developer lending regime, a 2020 policy that capped leverage and helped trigger the property liquidity crunch that erupted in 2021. Local housing-ministry-linked media said developers are no longer required to submit monthly red-lines data, and markets reacted like it was 2020 again: China Aoyuan +34%, Logan +20%, Sunac +29%, and Country Garden +16%, with the CSI 300 Real Estate Index +5% (highest in two months) and the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index up ~4%–5%. Officials have already been easing financing constraints via the “whitelist” project mechanism, which has approved 7+ trillion yuan (~$1 trillion) in loans, alongside measures that can allow longer loan extensions for eligible projects.

Why It Matters: For Chinese households, this is less about developers getting less work and more about finishing homes and stabilizing confidence—property is still a core store of wealth, and the crisis has been a multi-year drag on spending. This is Beijing acknowledging the old deleveraging framework has done its job (and damage), but the more important question is whether credit actually flows: analysts warn that with banks still risk-averse and the market in “deep adjustment,” the end of the red lines won’t magically reopen funding spigots. In other words: the policy is changing faster than the risk appetite.

What to Watch: Watch two things: (1) whether bank lending terms improve for non-approved developers (spreads, collateral demands, maturities), and (2) whether home sales and prices stabilize enough to pull private capital back in. Ending the red lines is a headline; restoring trust is the hard part.
Source: reuters.com

3. Venezuelan Heavy Crude Is Back on the Gulf Coast

The News: Valero said Jan. 29, 2026 it has struck agreements with three authorized sellers of Venezuelan crude and expects those barrels to make up a “significant portion” of its heavy-crude slate in February and March; Valero said it can run 240,000+ barrels/day of Venezuelan crude. The day before, Reuters reported Citgo bought its first Venezuelan cargo since 2019—about 500,000 barrels of heavy crude from Trafigura for February delivery—signaling a broader restart of flows after years of sanctions. Before the 2019 cutoff, U.S. Gulf Coast refineries processed as much as ~800,000 bpd of Venezuelan heavy oil.

Why It Matters: More discounted heavy crude is usually bullish for refining economics—especially for Gulf Coast plants built to process heavy sour barrels—potentially supporting supplies of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel if volumes scale. For refiners and investors, this is about feedstock advantage: earlier deals were reported at ~$8.50–$9.50/bbl below Brent, which can widen margins if product prices hold. And strategically, it reshuffles trade flows meaning less need for imported fuel oil and other heavy barrels when Venezuela re-enters the mix.

What to Watch: Watch actual February–March delivery cadence and whether Washington expands the pool of authorized sellers/buyers beyond today’s license holders and whether Chevron ramps exports further in March, which would add to Gulf Coast supply options. Cheap barrels are great until the rules change mid-voyage.
Source: reuters.com

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