Good Afternoon. The week's economic blockbuster — April core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year, in line to the decimal — passed without fireworks. Stocks hovered around new highs. Salesforce reported a blowout quarter but light Q2 guidance; the stock is roughly flat. And the US and Iran agreed on a 60-day truce extension, pending one signature.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. PCE Lands Exactly Where Economists Drew the X

The News: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year in April. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, advanced 0.2% on the month and 3.3% on the year, hitting expectations to the decimal. Personal spending registered 0.5% growth, while personal income came in unchanged versus an expected 0.4% increase.

Why It Matters: For investors, "in line" is a green light to do nothing — which is exactly what the Fed plans to do. Fed funds futures still show no cuts in 2026 and a small but non-zero probability of a hike by year-end. For consumers, real income growth was flat in April, which explains why retail sales have been wobbly even as the labor market remains tight.

What to Watch: The June 17-18 FOMC meeting, where the Fed's updated dot plot will tell us whether "higher for longer" has officially become "higher, forever."

Source: CNBC

2. Salesforce Beats Every Number, Stock Goes Flat Anyway

The News: Salesforce reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $11.13 billion (vs. $11.05B consensus) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 (vs. $3.12 expected) — a 24% earnings beat. Agentforce annual recurring revenue crossed $1.2 billion, up 205% year-over-year. Yet shares traded flat to slightly red after the company guided Q2 revenue to $11.27B-$11.35B versus a $11.36B Street estimate — a roughly $100 million shortfall on an $11 billion business.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the SaaS dilemma in one chart: every traditional metric looks great, but the market is pricing in seat compression from AI agents replacing licensed users. CRM is now off about 30% year-to-date. For consumers, the bigger story is that enterprises are clearly buying AI software in volume — they're just unbundling it from seat licenses.

What to Watch: Whether Salesforce's $33.6B contracted backlog (cRPO, +14% YoY) starts to reaccelerate in Q2 — that's the cleanest single signal that "SaaSpocalypse" is being overpriced.

Source: Bloomberg

3. Marvell Lifts FY28 Outlook to $16.5B — Custom Silicon Story Intact

The News: Marvell Technology reported Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.42 billion, up 28% year-over-year and a company record. Data center revenue reached $1.83 billion, or 76% of total revenue. CEO Matt Murphy raised the fiscal 2028 revenue target to roughly $16.5 billion — about $1.5 billion above last quarter's outlook and the fourth multi-billion-dollar upward revision in a year. Interconnect revenue is now projected to grow more than 70% YoY on demand for 1.6-terabit optical solutions. Marvell shares advanced about 1.5% Thursday.

Why It Matters: For investors, Marvell is the cleanest "picks and shovels" play on hyperscaler AI capex — XPUs (custom accelerators) and the optical interconnects that link them. Q1 net income of $34.5M (down from $177.9M) shows the company is investing heavily, so leverage hasn't arrived yet.

What to Watch: Whether Marvell's design wins translate to gross margin expansion in the second half — the bull case requires both top-line growth and operating leverage.

Source: Yahoo Finance

4. Records Hold as Yields Push Through 4.50%

The News: The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all held roughly flat Thursday after closing at fresh records Wednesday — the first day this week all three indexes set highs together. The 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.50% as bond traders absorbed the in-line PCE reading and faded a "soft" data narrative. The dollar firmed against the yen and euro.

Why It Matters: For investors, the lack of follow-through after a record is more telling. With the VIX climbing back above 17 and yields rising, the index is signaling that the "good news is already in the price." For consumers, the move higher in yields will likely lift the 30-year mortgage rate back toward 6.70% by next week if it sticks.

What to Watch: Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading, which will tell us if tariff and gas-price worries are cooling alongside oil.

Source: Investopedia

5. Dell Lands Pentagon AI Contract — Reuters Reports $1B+ Deal

The News: Dell Technologies advanced after CNBC reported the company won a Pentagon AI infrastructure contract, expanding its federal data center presence. The contract follows last month's $5.2 billion CoreWeave order and a Wells Fargo target raise to $270 in mid-May. Dell shares are up roughly 18% over the trailing month as the "AI server vendor" thesis attracts new fund flows.

Why It Matters: For investors, Dell's federal pipeline matters because it's recurring and higher-margin than hyperscaler deals. With Trump's "AI Manhattan Project" budget tilting toward sovereign compute, expect more Pentagon wins for Dell, HPE, and Supermicro.

What to Watch: Dell's June 5 fiscal Q1 earnings, where AI server backlog will likely be the headline number.

Source: CNBC Squawk on the Street

6. US-Iran Agree to 60-Day Ceasefire Extension — Trump Signature Pending

The News: Negotiators in Doha reached an agreement Thursday on a 60-day memorandum of understanding extending the current US-Iran ceasefire and launching formal talks on Iran's nuclear program, according to four sources cited by Reuters and Fox News. President Trump has not yet signed off. The MOU follows roughly two weeks of negotiations and includes provisions on the Strait of Hormuz and the release of roughly $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

Why It Matters: For investors, a signed extension would meaningfully reduce the geopolitical risk premium in oil and shift attention back to demand and inventories. For consumers, a successful 60-day window could bring summer gas prices down 30-50 cents from current levels.

What to Watch: Trump's public response — he has been characteristically unpredictable on Iran framework deals, and a single Truth Social post could move Brent $5 in either direction.

Source: Fox News

7. Oil Reverses Higher — Brent Tops $97 on Ceasefire Wobble

The News: Brent crude futures climbed about 3% Thursday to surpass $97 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate gaining a similar amount to $91, reversing Wednesday's slide. Reuters reported earlier in the session that US warplanes had struck an Iranian military installation, though the strike's timing was later disputed. The BBC and Bloomberg reported Brent had briefly fallen to $93.36 before recovering on the strike report and ceasefire MOU news.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the textbook "headline risk premium" Goldman warned about Wednesday — oil now trades on whichever wire crosses last. Energy names like ExxonMobil and Chevron are again outperforming, while airlines and chemicals have given back yesterday's gains.

What to Watch: OPEC+'s June 1 meeting, where the cartel decides whether to extend voluntary production cuts through Q3.

Source: BBC

8. EU Fines TEMU €200 Million Under Digital Services Act

The News: The European Commission fined Chinese online retailer TEMU €200 million Thursday under the Digital Services Act, finding the platform failed to adequately protect consumers from illegal products. The Commission cited examples including dangerous baby toys and faulty chargers being sold without sufficient safety screening. TEMU's parent company, PDD Holdings, has 30 days to appeal.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the second major Western enforcement action against a Chinese e-commerce platform in 2026 and signals that Brussels is preparing the ground for tougher action on Shein, Alibaba's AliExpress, and TikTok Shop. For consumers, a clearer regulatory regime should improve product safety but may raise prices.

What to Watch: PDD Holdings' (PDD) reaction — the ADR has lagged Chinese tech all year and may face additional fines if remediation steps don't satisfy the Commission.

Source: Euronews

Q: What do clouds wear under their pants?

A: Thunderwear.

The income-based surcharge that high earners pay on top of standard Medicare Part B and Part D premiums. IRMAA tiers are based on modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) from two years prior, so a one-time income spike — a Roth conversion, a stock sale, or RMD bunching — can trigger years of higher Medicare costs.

Usage: "She did a large Roth conversion at age 63, then got hit with an IRMAA surcharge two years later when Medicare looked back at her MAGI."

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