Good Afternoon. If you saw how high the market was this morning and are just now seeing how it ended up, a lot has happened. A delayed jobs report may have just upended December rate-cut hopes, sending crypto sliding and volatility skyrocketing. But it wasn’t all stress: Walmart posted a standout quarter, Italy is flirting with a long-awaited ratings upgrade, and U.S. manufacturing scored another re-shoring win. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Reverse as Jitters Overpower Nvidia’s Beat

The News: A morning rally evaporated Thursday as renewed AI bubble fears dragged markets sharply lower. Nvidia, which surged premarket after another blockbuster earnings print, reversed hard and closed down 3%, pulling the Nasdaq to a 2% loss after being up more than 2% earlier. Investors again questioned whether hyperscale AI spending is starting to look less like “investment” and more like “overbuild.” A delayed September jobs report added to the pressure: payrolls beat at +119,000, but unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, muddying the path for a December rate cut. Bitcoin fell back below $90,000, while Walmart bucked the gloom with another strong session. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 2.6%.

Why It Matters: Nvidia’s strength isn’t enough to calm a market increasingly worried about stretched valuations, multi-billion-dollar AI capex plans, and a Fed that may be sidelining a December cut just as growth indicators soften. When the leader of the AI trade can’t hold a gain on great earnings, it tells you risk appetite is thinning out.

What to Watch: If tech continues to sell off even on great news, it could signal the market is shifting from “priced for perfection” to “priced for scrutiny.” Keep an eye on how AI-adjacent names trade Friday; follow-through selling would hint the narrative is changing.
Source: wsj.com

2. Fed Odds Shift After Delayed Jobs Data

The News: Markets are leaning away from a December rate cut after finally receiving September’s backlogged jobs report. Futures now reflect roughly a 35% chance of a cut—up slightly from yesterday, but still well below levels seen just a month ago. The Fed’s benchmark rate sits at 3.75%–4.00%. The report itself was a mixed bag: +119,000 jobs added, far above expectations (50,000). Unemployment up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. Wage growth and participation rate remain firm. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson summed it up: solid enough not to force the Fed’s hand, soft enough not to shut the door on cuts.

Why It Matters: Investors have spent months trying to read a Fed that’s juggling softening labor conditions, near-target inflation, and political crosswinds as Powell’s term runs toward a May expiration. Delayed data makes that job harder. For markets, every scrap of labor info now matters disproportionately because it’s one of the few remaining inputs that can justify easing before year-end.

What to Watch: How markets handle the next two weeks of rate-cut uncertainty—especially households watching mortgage rates, credit card APRs, and auto loan quotes inch higher or stay stuck. If you’re waiting for borrowing costs to “magically drop in December,” the odds suggest you may want a backup plan.
Source: cnbc.com

3. Walmart Pops After Strong Q3 and Upgraded Outlook

The News: Walmart delivered a clean beat-and-raise quarter, proving once again that in a shaky consumer landscape, scale and grocery dominance still win. CEO Doug McMillon said Walmart is seeing particular strength with higher-income households, while lower-income shoppers continue to show strain, a theme echoed across retail earnings this season. Shares jumped on the results, and Walmart announced it is shifting its stock listing to the Nasdaq, aligning with its “people-led, tech-powered” strategy. A deeper OpenAI partnership is also on deck, with agentic AI expected to build entire shopping baskets for customers.

Why It Matters: While Target is cutting forecasts and complaining about messy stores and cautious consumers, Walmart is capturing share, especially in grocery, which now represents 60% of its U.S. revenue. The retailer’s strength with both budget and affluent households reinforces the “barbell economy”: shoppers trade down on essentials but still want convenience and automation. Walmart’s e-commerce acceleration and AI ambitions also signal that retail’s next competitive frontier won’t be price—it’ll be fulfillment speed and personalized digital shopping.

What to Watch: Whether Walmart’s AI-powered personalization actually nudges customers to bigger baskets or just overwhelms them with suggestions. For anyone who logs on for the essentials and ends up with that patio set you’ve been eyeing, this might be the moment you realize the algorithm knows you a little too well.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

4. Bitcoin Plunges to 7-Month Low as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade

The News: Bitcoin tumbled to its weakest level since April, as traders unwound risk positions after hotter-than-expected jobs data cut the odds of a December Fed rate cut to roughly 40%. The drop pulled the broader crypto market with it, Ether: –3%, now well under $3,000, XRP: –2.3%, back below $2.00 The move extends a slide that began in early October after cascading liquidations hit the most leveraged corners of the market. Thursday’s retreat came even as Nvidia delivered blowout earnings, underscoring how tightly Bitcoin is now intertwined with the same investors riding AI-related trades.

Why It Matters: For months, Bitcoin has behaved less like a macro hedge and more like a high-beta tech asset—swinging with rate expectations, liquidity trends, and AI exuberance. With rate-cut odds fading and risk appetite cooling, crypto’s correlation to growth stocks is becoming the dominant force again.

What to Watch: Whether Bitcoin finds real buyers on the way down or if this turns into another round of forced selling. If tech and crypto investors keep deleveraging together, we may learn very quickly just how much overlap those “AI + BTC” portfolios actually had.
Source: cnbc.com

5. GE Appliances Shifts Washer/Dryer Production from China to Kentucky

The News: GE Appliances announced more than $150 million in new annual contracts for U.S. suppliers as it relocates production of its combo washer/dryer and front-load models from China to its massive Louisville “Appliance Park.” The move is part of a $490 million plant overhaul, creating 800 new jobs and expanding the clothes-care footprint to the size of 33 football fields by early 2027. While tariffs helped nudge production back home, the company cited shorter lead times, lower logistics costs, and tighter supplier collaboration as equally important drivers.

Why It Matters: This is one of the largest single reshoring announcements of the year—and a real-world illustration of what “Made in America” looks like beyond the political slogan. When a manufacturer retools a plant this large, the impact cascades through the entire regional economy: suppliers hire, freight routes expand, and smaller family-owned firms often get multi-year stability they rarely see. It also marks a significant shift in appliance supply-chain strategy, where consumers increasingly want fast delivery and reliable stock.

What to Watch: Whether reshoring spreads beyond washers and dryers. If GE Appliances’ 2027 rollout proves profitable, expect more large consumer manufacturers—especially tariff-exposed ones—to follow. The bigger signal is that U.S. suppliers may be entering a multi-year investment cycle, where domestic manufacturing becomes the safer bet, not the nostalgic one.
Source: abcnews.go.com

1. Italy Poised for First Moody’s Upgrade in 23 Years

The News: Moody’s will review Italy’s sovereign rating on Friday, and analysts say the country could see its first upgrade since 2002—a milestone nearly a quarter-century in the making. The agency already raised Italy’s outlook to positive in May, and since then the Meloni government has tightened its fiscal stance, cutting the 2025 deficit target to 3% of GDP a full year ahead of EU rules. Stronger tax revenues, lower debt-servicing costs, and steadier politics have fueled a string of ratings improvements.

Why It Matters: For a country long treated as one of Europe’s fiscal problem children, an upgrade from Moody’s would be a reputational reset—and a meaningful one. A stronger rating lowers borrowing costs for Italy’s government, banks, and corporate sector. It also keeps a huge share of global bond portfolios mandated to hold investment-grade debt from trimming exposure. And for the EU, it signals something even more significant: the bloc’s third-largest economy is demonstrating fiscal discipline at a moment when larger peers like France are being pushed the opposite direction.

What to Watch: Whether an upgrade sparks a broader re-rating across Italian assets—especially bank stocks and utilities that benefit directly from lower sovereign risk. Bond investors will also be watching whether the spread to Bunds breaks through 70 bps, a level that would’ve been unimaginable just a few years ago.
Source: money.usnews.com

2. Japan Rolls Out $135B Stimulus, Its Biggest Since the Pandemic

The News: Japan is finalizing a ¥21.3 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package—its largest since Covid—as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi moves to counter stubborn inflation, revive consumption, and pour money into strategic industries like AI, semiconductors, and shipbuilding. Once private-sector funding is included, the package swells to ¥42.8 trillion. The plan includes ¥17.7 trillion in government outlays, ¥2.7 trillion in tax cuts, and a yet-to-be-determined amount of new bond issuance. Households will see support ranging from fuel tax reductions to 20,000 yen per child supplemental payments. A supplementary budget is expected by Nov. 28.

Why It Matters: Japan is doubling down on fiscal expansion just as markets are flashing warnings about debt sustainability. With the Bank of Japan still holding rates near zero, expectations of more borrowing have pushed the yen weaker and JGB yields higher, raising the stakes for policymakers who are trying to support consumers without triggering a credibility crisis. For global markets, Japan’s stimulus matters for two big reasons: Demand Boost: More spending could nudge global goods demand higher especially in autos, energy, and tech components. Currency & Yield Spillovers: A weaker yen tends to export deflationary pressure abroad and can intensify trade tensions, while rising JGB yields can disrupt global bond markets if Japan’s famously stable investors start reallocating.

What to Watch: Whether the stimulus actually lifts household spending, which has been unusually weak relative to wage gains or simply adds fuel to Japan’s widening fiscal deficits. Also keep an eye on the yen: if it slides past recent lows, markets may test how far Takaichi’s government and the BOJ are willing to push an expansionary stance before confidence wobbles.
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

3. WHO Approves First Child-Friendly Malaria Drug, A Major Win for Malawi

The News: The World Health Organization has approved the first-ever child-friendly formulations of primaquine, giving Malawi a breakthrough tool in its fight against malaria. The new 2.5 mg and 5 mg dispersible tablets—developed by MMV and Fosun Pharma with support from Unitaid—are flavor-masked, dissolve in water, and allow accurate dosing for infants for the first time.

Why It Matters: Malawi’s health workers have long been forced to crush bitter adult tablets for children, risking under or overdosing and poor compliance. Malawi already leads the world in malaria prevention innovation, having piloted the RTS,S vaccine in 2019 before any other country. Now, the combination of: a proven vaccine that prevents infections, and a child-friendly drug that blocks onward transmission creates a complementary one-two punch that could meaningfully bend the curve on malaria deaths, especially among children under five, who account for 74% of global malaria fatalities. With WHO prequalification, the new tablets can be rapidly purchased by major funders like the Global Fund, accelerating adoption across Malawi’s health system.

What to Watch: Whether Malawi becomes the global proof point for combining mass vaccination and child-friendly anti-transmission drugs, the kind of integrated model that other high-burden countries could replicate. If the data show sustained drops in community transmission, this could mark the closest the world has come to a scalable malaria elimination strategy in decades.
Source: nyasatimes.com

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