Good Afternoon. If your portfolio feels like it’s been in a blender, you’re not imagining it. Risk assets had another rough day: bitcoin broke lower, silver got smacked again, and tech slid as investors digested softer labor signals. The bright spot? Alphabet quietly reminded everyone it owns a sleeping giant: YouTube.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Jobs Cracks + Tech Angst = Another Nasdaq Hit

The News: Stocks fell as fresh labor-market softness collided with an ongoing tech selloff. The Nasdaq fell ~1.6%, the S&P 500 ~1.2%, and the Dow ~1.2% after government data showed lower-than-expected job openings in December 2025 and higher-than-expected initial unemployment claims. Big Tech was a weight again: Alphabet slid after reiterating up to ~$185B in 2026 AI-related capex, while a weak Qualcomm outlook pressured chips. Risk assets stayed under stress—bitcoin fell to ~63,765 (-12.9%).

Why It Matters: The combo of rising layoff announcements and softer high-frequency labor data is what can turn “the economy is fine” into “we’re pulling back”—slower hiring tends to show up in spending and confidence before it shows up in the official unemployment rate. When growth stocks are already wobbly, any sign the labor market is cooling makes markets more sensitive to rates, margins, and capex discipline, especially when AI spending is huge and payoffs are uneven. And when crypto is dumping at the same time, it’s usually a sign the market is de-risking broadly, not just rotating.

What to Watch: Watch the next few labor updates—weekly claims and the next major jobs report—for confirmation that the “softening” is real, not noise. On the market side, keep eyes on Amazon’s earnings and whether megacap capex plans start to look like a growth engine or a margin problem. If bitcoin can’t regain $70,000, the risk-off mood may keep spreading.
Source: wsj.com

2. Bitcoin Breaks $64K

The News: Bitcoin fell below $64,000 on Feb. 5, 2026, hitting its weakest level since October 2024 as a broad crypto sell-off accelerated. Reuters pegged the drop alongside a wider washout that has shaved roughly $2 trillion off total crypto market value since a peak of about $4.379 trillion in October 2025; bitcoin is down about 23% YTD. The slide also triggered forced selling: roughly $722 million of bullish crypto positions were liquidated over the prior 24 hours.

Why It Matters: This is the familiar crypto cycle in reverse: leverage gets flushed, confidence cracks, and risk appetite cools—often spilling into “risk-on” corners of stocks too. For investors, the key shift is flow-driven: the spot-ETF bid that helped stabilize prices in prior drawdowns is turning into easier outflows, further putting pressure on prices.

What to Watch: Watch whether ETF flows stabilize after recent heavy redemptions. Also watch spillover stress: continued large liquidations can pressure miners, credit, and smaller tokens, turning a drawdown into a deleveraging event. When the exits get crowded, they often don’t like the price they pay to leave.
Source: bloomberg.com

3. Gold and Silver Slide Again as U.S.-Iran Talks Deflate the Hedge

The News: Gold and silver fell sharply on Feb. 5, 2026 ahead of U.S.-Iran talks in Oman on Feb. 6. Spot gold slid to around $4,873/oz after touching an intraday low near $4,792, while silver plunged as much as 12% to roughly $72/oz before bouncing—still far below last week’s record highs. Reuters tied the move to easing geopolitical risk (talks confirmed) and a firmer dollar, while the broader “forced deleveraging” dynamic lingered after exchanges raised margin requirements following last week’s historic metals crash.

Why It Matters: When war-risk premiums come out of the market, “safe havens” can turn into “sell the hedge,” fast—especially in a recent run up. This matters indirectly through inflation expectations and energy/commodity prices: cooler Middle East risk can pressure oil and, over time, take some heat off headline inflation. The bigger story is plumbing: margin hikes and volatility are forcing position cuts, which can create overshoots in both directions and hit correlated assets (mining equities, commodity-linked FX, even riskier corners like crypto).

What to Watch: Watch Feb. 6 headlines from the Muscat talks—any sign of progress can keep lowering gold/silver, while a breakdown could re-inflate the risk premium quickly. Also watch margin and positioning signals: after CME’s recent margin increases (gold up to 8%, silver up to 15%), further tightening or renewed liquidation waves could also impact people’s risk appetite for metals.
Source: reuters.com

4. Layoff Announcements Spike to a 17-Year High as Hiring Plans Stall

The News: U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January 2026, the highest January total since 2009 and up 205% from December 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Hiring intentions moved the other way: employers announced plans to add just 5,306 jobs in January, the lowest January figure since the firm began tracking in 2009. The biggest driver was transportation, led by UPS, which announced up to 30,000 cuts and 24 facility closures; tech was next, with Amazon planning 16,000 corporate job cuts. Challenger said only about 7% of January cuts were explicitly tied to AI, with contract losses, restructuring, and market conditions cited more often.

Why It Matters: This is the kind of data that changes consumer behavior before it changes official unemployment prints: big layoff plans can chill spending, especially on discretionary items, even if many reductions happen through attrition or over months. For investors, the mix matters—transportation and tech leading suggests companies are preparing for softer demand and higher productivity targets at the same time. And the collapse in hiring plans is the tell: firms aren’t just trimming; they’re also hesitating to backfill, which can slow wage growth and reduce the odds of a “no-landing” economy.

What to Watch: Watch whether these plans show up in hard labor data: weekly jobless claims and the next monthly payroll report (Challenger noted past headline layoffs didn’t always translate into a claims spike as many come with severance packages). Also watch how much of the cutting shifts from “restructuring” to “AI-enabled efficiency” as 2026 budgets get reset. Sometimes the first recession signal is an org chart.
Source: cnbc.com

5. YouTube Crosses $60B, Quietly Beating Netflix at the Revenue Game

The News: Alphabet said YouTube generated more than $60 billion in 2025 revenue across ads + subscriptions, the first time Google has disclosed a combined annual figure for the platform. That puts YouTube ahead of Netflix’s $45.2 billion in 2025 revenue. The disclosure came alongside Alphabet’s Q4 2025 results (reported Feb. 4, 2026): YouTube advertising revenue hit a record $11.38 billion (+8.7% YoY) but missed expectations of about $11.84 billion. Alphabet also said it now has 325 million paid subscriptions across consumer services (including YouTube Premium/TV and Google One).

Why It Matters: This is why YouTube keeps adding subscriptions, bundles, and new ad formats: the platform is now big enough that even small changes in pricing, ad load, or creator economics can ripple into what you pay and what you see. For investors, the takeaway is durability. YouTube is no longer “a line item inside Google Ads”; it’s a revenue engine with two legs (ads and subs) and a direct seat at the streaming table. The flip side is what the Q4 miss hints at: ad growth is still cyclical, and Wall Street is getting pickier about who can convert attention into cash, not just views.

What to Watch: Watch whether YouTube can keep monetizing Shorts without cranking ad load—Alphabet has said Shorts is improving monetization, and this is where “engagement” has to become “profit.” Also watch Alphabet’s 2026 capex plan of $175–$185 billion and how much of that ultimately supports YouTube’s AI-driven creator tools and ad targeting; investors will want proof that spend turns into margin, not just more servers. YouTube is huge, now it has to be predictably huge.
Source: sec.com

1. U.S. Builds a 54-Ally Minerals Club to Box Out China

The News: The Trump administration announced a sweeping set of critical-minerals initiatives at the State Department’s first Critical Minerals Ministerial, unveiling a new bloc-style framework called FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) with 54 countries plus the EU. Vice President JD Vance pitched FORGE as a preferential trade zone for critical minerals that could include enforceable price floors. The announcements build on Monday’s Project Vault minerals stockpile plan (a $12B public-private initiative).

Why It Matters: This is industrial policy with a price tag and a strategy: make non-China mining and processing investable by reducing the “boom-bust” risk that kills projects and spooks investors. Resilient mineral supply chains matter because they feed EVs, electronics, power grids, and defense—shortages show up as higher prices, fewer cars, and delayed infrastructure. Price floors and preferential trade terms could materially change project economics for miners and refiners outside China, but they also invite retaliation and complicated compliance: once governments start setting floors, the market starts trading policy risk as much as the underlying geology.

What to Watch: Watch what “enforceable” actually means—i.e., whether price floors become binding treaty language or softer guidance—and which minerals qualify first.
Source: money.usnews.com

2. China’s Clean Tech Engine Is Now a $2.1T Business

The News: China’s clean-energy industries generated 15.4 trillion yuan ($2.1 trillion) of economic output in 2025, equal to 11.4% of GDP, and accounted for more than one-third of China’s growth plus more than 90% of net investment gains, according to a CREA analysis published with Carbon Brief. The report says the sector—led by EVs/batteries and solar/wind—nearly doubled in size from 8.4 trillion yuan in 2022 to 15.4 trillion yuan in 2025, and argues that without the cleantech contribution, China’s 2025 GDP growth would have been about 3.5% instead of the reported ~5%. Reuters highlighted the scale comparison: as a standalone economy, China’s cleantech output would roughly rival Brazil or Canada’s entire economy.

Why It Matters: This is why EV and solar prices keep falling outside of the US: China’s clean-tech supply chain isn’t a side project—it’s a core growth strategy, which supports aggressive scale and export capacity. The flip side is geopolitics: when one country dominates the physical inputs for the energy transition, everyone else starts writing industrial policy (and tariffs) like it’s a national-security memo.

What to Watch: Watch whether China’s power buildout stays this extreme—official data cited in recent reporting shows 543 GW of new power capacity added in 2025 (315 GW solar, 119 GW wind), a pace that supports both electrification and AI data-center demand. Also watch if Beijing keeps backing cleantech while also leaning on coal for “energy security,” markets will keep pricing China as the world’s scale setter and everyone else as the price taker.
Source: carbonbrief.com

3. Shell Eyes Venezuela Gas Again

The News: Shell CEO Wael Sawan said on Feb. 5, 2026 the company is weighing “a few billion dollars” of offshore gas investments in Venezuela that could be activated and deliver production within the next couple of years, as Shell looks to route Venezuelan gas to Trinidad and Tobago for processing and export. The focal asset is the Dragon offshore gas field (about 4.2 trillion cubic feet of reserves), where Shell holds 46.5% alongside Trinidad’s National Gas Company. Progress hinges on U.S. sanctions permissions: Washington granted an authorization in October 2025 that allows negotiations through April 2026, and Shell is seeking the approvals needed to move from talks to development and a final investment decision.

Why It Matters: More regional gas supply could help stabilize Caribbean LNG and petrochemical output—while, at the margin, global gas pricing—though any real volume is still years away and depends on permits, pipelines, and politics. It also signals how quickly “new” energy investment themes can reappear when geopolitics shifts: Shell is effectively betting that policy risk is becoming manageable enough to justify multibillion-dollar capex.

What to Watch: Watch the April 2026 negotiation deadline in the current U.S. authorization and whether OFAC expands permissions for actual field development and cash-flow mechanics (the difference between “talk” and “build”).
Source: cnbc.com

Q: What’s a frog’s favorite type of music?

A: Hip hop.

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A chemical reaction that releases energy in the form of heat, often making the surroundings warmer.

“Combustion of natural gas in a stove is an example of an exothermic reaction.”

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