Good Afternoon. Markets are serving up a strange mix today: Buffett’s trimming Apple while loading up on UnitedHealth, Trump’s floating 300% chip tariffs (and maybe a stake in Intel), and China’s slowdown is so sharp Bridgewater bailed entirely. Add a possible Trump–Putin ceasefire, and geopolitics and markets are playing the same game of high-stakes chess. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Buffett Trims Apple and Makes a Big Bet on Healthcare

The News: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold another 20 million Apple shares in Q2, bringing its holdings to 280 million, while amassing a record $344 billion in cash. Even after the trim, Apple still makes up 22% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio, with Buffett continuing to praise Tim Cook’s leadership. But the legendary investor is also diversifying ahead of his year-end retirement, making Berkshire’s first-ever investment in UnitedHealth Group: over 5 million shares worth $1.6 billion. The move spurred confidence with other investors and sent UNH stock soaring over 11%, its best day in a decade, despite the insurer facing DOJ scrutiny, rising reimbursement costs, and political pressure to rein in pharmacy benefit managers.

Why It Matters: Buffett’s dual move signals two things: caution about market valuations and confidence in finding value where others see trouble. Selling a slice of Apple while building cash suggests Berkshire is keeping its powder dry for bigger opportunities or stormier markets. Meanwhile, stepping into UnitedHealth, a company under both regulatory and political fire, shows Buffett still likes a turnaround bet at the right price. For investors, it’s a reminder that even in uncertain markets, strategic rebalancing can mean trimming the winners and buying into the wounded, if you have the patience to wait for the recovery.
Source: barrons.com

2. Four AI Titans Are Powering Most of the Market’s 2025 Gains

The News: Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Broadcom are doing the heavy lifting for the S&P 500 this year, together accounting for roughly 60% of the index’s 10% year-to-date rise, according to DataTrek. Nvidia alone is responsible for more than a quarter of that gain. The outsized influence of a few mega-cap AI names has pushed market concentration to its highest level since the 1960s, with the top 10 stocks now making up 36% of the S&P’s total value, well above the dot-com peak.

Why It Matters: AI spending isn’t just driving stock prices, it’s lifting the broader economy, adding 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the first half of 2025, more than consumer spending did. However, the market’s reliance on a handful of companies is a textbook reminder of why index funds matter: if you haven’t held these names, you’ve missed most of this year’s rally. You won’t see the highest of the highs, but at least you won’t see the lowest of the lows nor miss the boat completely.
Source: marketwatch.com

3. Intel Pops on Talk of U.S. Government Stake

The News: Intel shares jumped 7% yesterday after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is considering taking an equity stake in the chipmaker to support U.S. manufacturing. The potential deal would help fund Intel’s Ohio factories, critical to keeping advanced chip production on U.S. soil, as the company struggles to catch up in AI chips and secure major foundry customers. The move fits a broader Trump-era trend of the government taking direct stakes in strategic industries, from rare-earth miners to steelmakers.

Why It Matters: A U.S. stake could give Intel both the capital and political backing to rebuild its competitiveness against TSMC and Samsung, but it also underscores how national security and industrial policy are increasingly intertwined in tech. And for investors, it’s a reminder that sometimes Uncle Sam isn’t just regulating the market—he’s buying in. At this pace, Trump’s proposed sovereign wealth fund might need its own NASDAQ listing.
Source: cnbc.com

4. Trump says semiconductor tariffs coming soon

The News: President Trump said Friday he’ll announce steep new tariffs on semiconductor imports within weeks, possibly as high as 200–300%, far above the 100% rate he’d previously discussed. The duties are part of his broader tariff expansion, which will also target pharmaceuticals, and come as wholesale inflation just saw its fastest jump in three years.Markets have so far brushed off the news, with stocks at record highs, but economists warn the impact will soon reach consumers.

Why It Matters: Tariffs this high would be a shock to global chip supply chains and a windfall for U.S. producers like Intel, especially with the White House considering a direct stake in the company. For investors, that means two things: short-term volatility as global buyers scramble for alternatives, and a potential longer-term boost for domestic chipmakers positioned to fill the gap. It’s also another sign that in Trump’s Washington, trade policy is doubling as industrial strategy with the federal government acting less like a referee and more like a player on the field.
Source: yahoo.finance.com

5. What a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire deal could mean for global markets

The News: President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet today in Alaska to discuss a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, a conflict that has reshaped global markets since 2022. The war triggered an energy shock, sent food prices soaring, and hit European stocks, while driving a rally in defense shares and accelerating de-dollarization as Russia deepened trade ties with China. Investors are watching Ukraine’s government bonds, still trading at distressed levels, for signs of progress. A deal could also ease pressure on oil, gas, and grain markets, but its impact will depend heavily on its credibility and durability.

Why It Matters: A lasting ceasefire could calm energy and food prices, offer relief to emerging markets, and boost sentiment for the euro and Ukrainian assets. But the structural market shifts, Europe’s long-term reliance on U.S. liquefied natural gas, Russia’s tighter alignment with China, and the reduced role of the dollar in global trade are here to stay. Even if the guns go quiet, the war has already rewired parts of the global economy.
Source: msn.com

1. PayPay files for U.S. IPO in SoftBank’s latest fintech play

The News: Japan’s mobile payments leader PayPay has filed to list American depositary shares in the U.S., setting the stage for a potential $2 billion IPO as early as Q4 2025. Backed and controlled by SoftBank, PayPay has tapped Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mizuho, and Morgan Stanley to lead the offering, one of the largest fintech floats of the year. While dominant in Japan, PayPay isn’t entering the U.S. consumer market yet; instead, it’s using the listing to raise capital, deepen investor ties, and position itself for eventual overseas expansion. SoftBank will retain nearly 70% of voting rights after the IPO, ensuring it keeps a tight grip on strategy.

Why It Matters: A successful listing would give PayPay both the capital and Wall Street credibility to expand beyond Japan’s saturated payments market while letting SoftBank unlock value without losing control. It’s also a reminder that U.S. markets remain the go-to venue for global tech champions seeking scale, even when they’re not targeting American customers because in fintech, the first battle is funding, not geography. And in SoftBank’s case, it’s another roll of the dice in its long-running bet that payments are the glue of the digital economy.
Source: ainvest.com

2. China’s growth cools and Bridgewater walks away

The News: China’s economy lost momentum in July, with industrial output up just 5.7% and retail sales rising 3.7%, both missing forecasts and marking the weakest readings since late 2024. Fixed asset investment also disappointed, and producer prices fell 3.6%, highlighting sluggish demand despite Beijing’s new consumer-loan subsidies and trade-in incentives. In a sharp reversal, Bridgewater Associates sold all $1.4B of its U.S.-listed Chinese stocks in Q2, including Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu and redeployed into U.S. tech leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta, plus a new stake in ARM.

Why It Matters: Weak momentum at home and worsening U.S.-China relations are prompting even long-time bulls to rethink China exposure. Bridgewater’s exit underscores for portfolio managers that sometimes, the biggest macro call isn’t picking winners — it’s deciding when to leave the table.
Source: scmp.com

3. Eli Lilly hikes UK weight-loss drug price 170% under Trump pressure

The News: Eli Lilly will raise the UK price of its blockbuster weight-loss drug Mounjaro from £122 to £330 a month starting Sept. 1, marking a 170% increase. The move comes as the Trump administration pushes drugmakers to raise prices abroad and lower them in the U.S. under its “Most Favored Nation” policy. Americans currently pay about $1,000 per month for Mounjaro’s U.S. counterpart, Zepbound. Lilly says the adjustment “rebalances” UK pricing to match other European markets and is part of a broader plan to spread the cost of drug development more evenly across countries.

Why It Matters: This could be the opening shot in a global pharma price realignment, one that shifts costs toward overseas buyers to relieve U.S. consumers. For now, British waistlines may shrink, but private wallets will feel much lighter too.
Source: news.sky.com

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