Good Afternoon. On this day in 1983, Costco opened its first warehouse in Seattle. The club’s model was simple: buy in bulk, keep operating costs low, and pass the savings to members.

Forty-three years later, Costco’s motor-oil limits show how hard that promise gets when energy costs surge. Wall Street couldn’t avoid the same squeeze today as oil topped $109, Treasury yields held near 5%, and investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in three years.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: $109.35 — the afternoon price of a barrel of Brent crude, up 3.5% as disruptions kept the world’s most important inflation input moving higher.

Wall Street didn’t get a fresh economic report today, but it didn’t need one to feel the pressure. Stocks fell as oil climbed and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.0%, giving investors two reasons to pay less for future corporate earnings.

The news: The S&P 500 wasn’t immune, falling close to 0.5%, while the Dow lost close to 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 fell close to 0.7% late in the session. Brent crude reached $109.35, while the 10-year yield touched 5.04% overnight as the Fed began a meeting expected to produce a quarter-point rate increase Wednesday.

What’s next: The decision itself won’t be the only market mover. Investors will need to compare the Fed’s new rate projections with Chair Kevin Warsh’s explanation of how officials plan to fight oil-driven inflation without squeezing hiring, housing, and business investment more than necessary.

Source: Associated Press

Costco’s value promise hasn’t made it immune to the energy shock. The retailer has nearly doubled the price of a popular Kirkland motor-oil package and capped purchases, turning a global supply problem into a very visible household expense.

The news: The product isn’t just pricier: a two-pack containing 10 quarts of Kirkland full-synthetic motor oil now costs about $58, up from roughly $30 last year, and members can buy only two boxes per week. The U.S. imports more than 40% of the Group III base oils used in synthetic motor oil from the Middle East, where disrupted crude flows have made gasoline and diesel more profitable for refiners to produce.

Big picture: Costco can’t protect every shelf from commodity inflation, even with enormous purchasing power. If refiners keep favoring higher-volume fuels, drivers may face fewer motor-oil promotions while repair shops and retailers decide how much of the extra cost they can absorb.

Source: LiveNOW from FOX

Dave & Buster’s isn’t getting enough lift from new locations to cover weakness at existing stores. Revenue, comparable sales, and operating profit all moved the wrong way, which explains why shareholders reacted more to the current score than management’s recovery plan.

The news: The company didn’t escape the slowdown: quarterly revenue fell 2.4% to $544.1 million, comparable-store sales declined 2.9%, and it swung to a $12.5 million net loss from an $11.4 million profit a year earlier. Adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization dropped to $98.9 million from $129.8 million, even as six new domestic stores opened.

Bottom line: Management says food, beverage, special events, and remodeled stores are improving, but the business hasn’t returned to same-store growth. Eight remodels planned for the year may help, though they’ll need to raise traffic without adding costs faster than sales.

Source: Dave & Buster’s

Sysco isn’t funding its Restaurant Depot expansion with debt alone. The food distributor priced a large stock sale, giving the acquisition more financing certainty while asking existing owners to accept some near-term dilution.

The news: Sysco priced 12,345,679 shares at $81 each, raising about $1.0 billion before expenses, and gave underwriters an option for another $150 million. The proceeds will help fund its pending purchase of Jetro Restaurant Depot, although the stock sale isn’t contingent on that deal closing.

What’s next: The financing reduces the amount Sysco may need to borrow while yields are high, but it also spreads future earnings across more shares. The deal’s eventual value will depend on whether cash-and-carry growth and expected cost savings outweigh the dilution and integration work.

Source: Sysco

Corteva’s future seed company isn’t waiting for its separation to explain where growth should come from. Vylor laid out a soybean roadmap built around proprietary traits, broader crop protection, and licensing revenue that doesn’t require it to win every sale directly.

The news: Vylor hasn’t separated yet, but it said four new technology platforms could add roughly $500 million of revenue by 2035 after its planned October 1 split. The pipeline spans herbicide tolerance, insect control, Asian soybean rust, and gene-edited multi-disease resistance, with launches eventually covering 95% of its soybean business.

Big picture: A seed trait can earn money through both branded products and licensing, so intellectual property may matter as much as acres planted. Vylor’s long runway also creates execution risk: farmers won’t pay for a future promise unless field performance, regulatory approvals, and economics arrive together.

Source: Corteva

China’s factories aren’t waiting for households to feel confident. Export demand and the global data-center buildout lifted industrial output, but weak retail sales, falling investment, and a softer property market showed why production alone can’t rebalance the economy.

The news: August industrial output didn’t share the domestic economy’s weakness, growing 5.2% from a year earlier, while retail sales rose only 0.4% and fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over the first eight months. Property investment dropped 19.9%, and the urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3%.

Bottom line: China’s technology exports can keep factories busy, but they haven’t translated into stronger household incomes or spending. Policymakers may need broader fiscal support if they want domestic demand to carry more of the load instead of relying on foreign buyers and infrastructure projects.

Source: The Business Times

Canada can’t quickly replace the market next door, but new U.S. tariffs are making diversification less optional. The latest measures widen the list of affected products just as Ottawa tries to reduce the economy’s dependence on one enormous trading partner.

The news: Washington is extending 50% tariffs to more Canadian paper, furniture, and steel products, with restrictions on certain alcohol, dairy products, and motorcycles scheduled for September 29. Exports equal about one-third of Canada’s economy, and 71.7% of its goods exports went to the U.S. in 2025.

What’s next: Ottawa wants to double exports to countries outside the U.S. by 2035, but autos, energy, steel, and lumber rely on supply chains built across the border over decades. New European defense ties can help, though they won’t replace American demand on a tariff timetable.

Source: Le Monde

France’s budget math isn’t getting help from either oil or bonds. Higher energy costs threaten growth and inflation, while rising sovereign yields increase the government’s interest bill before officials have agreed on how to narrow the deficit.

The news: France’s 10-year government yield rose to about 4.53%, versus 3.54% in Germany, leaving a 99-basis-point spread that hasn’t been seen since 2012. The French Treasury still raised €7 billion, but the government expects this year’s interest expense to run €4.5 billion above its earlier estimate.

Big picture: Investors haven’t stopped lending to France; they’re demanding more compensation. That higher price leaves less budget space for services, tax relief, or energy support, making political agreement on the 2027 plan more urgent before refinancing costs take another step higher.

Source: Le Monde

Q: What did zero say to eight?

A: Nice belt!

Yield to maturity: the estimate of what a bond’s annual return will be if it’s held until maturity and promised payments arrive and can be reinvested as expected.

In a sentence: Today’s higher bond yields may improve yield to maturity for new buyers, but they’ve also raised borrowing costs across the economy.

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