Good Afternoon. Markets ended the week the same way they started it: reacting to headlines, then hedging the reaction. Europe’s defense boom just got a blockbuster IPO, while Amazon’s next cut reminds everyone that “resilient” doesn’t mean “relaxed.” Welcome to 2026, where confidence and caution share a desk. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow Slips, Metals Soar

The News: U.S. markets finished mixed on Jan. 23, 2026, capping a volatile week of Greenland-driven tariff whiplash and a sliding dollar. Intel dragged on sentiment after a weak outlook. The dollar stayed under pressure into its worst week since June, with USD/JPY around 155.93 and broader dollar measures down close to 1% on the week. Meanwhile, gold futures logged an all-time closing high, and silver closed above $100/oz for the first time.

Why It Matters: The big tell is the dollar + commodities combo: a weaker dollar can lift import prices over time, while surging gold often signals investors are paying up for insurance usually not a sign they expect calm borrowing conditions. For investors, Intel’s drop is a reminder that “AI” is not a universal get-out-of-guidance-free card; the company’s forecast miss hit semiconductors even as mega-cap tech held up. And when gold is ripping during an equity relief rally, markets are basically saying: “Nice bounce, still hedging.”

What to Watch: Keep an eye on whether gold holds near $5,000 or cools if geopolitics de-escalate and more tech earnings next week to see if Intel is an isolated incident or is becoming part of a growing trend.
Source: wsj.com

2. Silver Tops $100 per ounce

The News: Silver cracked $100/oz for the first time on Jan. 23, 2026, while gold surged to a fresh high near $4,988/oz. The move caps a blistering run: Reuters pegged silver up roughly 200% over the past year, as investors piled into havens amid geopolitical stress and expectations of easier U.S. policy. The latest catalyst: President Trump said a U.S. naval “armada,” including the USS Abraham Lincoln and guided-missile destroyers, is heading toward Iran as tensions escalate.

Why It Matters: A metals melt-up is usually a “risk tax” signal. Markets are paying up for protection, which can show up indirectly in higher hedging costs and, if it spills into rates and the dollar, more volatility in borrowing costs and imports. The story is bigger than one scary headline: gold’s bid is being reinforced by dollar weakness and Fed-independence worries, with the DOJ’s subpoenas aimed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell adding to sensitivity around U.S. policy credibility. Silver’s jump also isn’t purely “fear trade”: it has real industrial pull from electrification and data-center demand, which is why it can behave like both a hedge and a growth input when markets get weird.

What to Watch: Watch next week’s Fed meeting for any language that stabilizes (or inflames) the independence narrative, and keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index—a continuing slide would keep tailwinds behind metals. On the geopolitical side, markets will follow the Iran deployment timeline and any escalation signals. If gold actually gets to $5,000, expect a fresh round of “is this a bubble?”
Source: forbes.com

3. Capital One Buys Brex

The News: Capital One agreed to acquire corporate-card and expense-platform Brex for $5.15B in a roughly 50% cash / 50% stock deal announced Jan. 22, 2026, with closing expected by mid-2026. The move follows Capital One’s $35.3B Discover acquisition, which gave it the Discover payment network and more leverage in card economics. Brex brings a software-heavy corporate spend stack—cards, real-time expense tracking, bill pay, travel, and accounting integrations—and about $13B of commercial deposits, plus a customer base that includes names like DoorDash and Robinhood.

Why It Matters: This is a “bank meets modern finance OS” moment: companies could get Brex-style controls and automation with Capital One’s balance sheet, which tends to mean more reliable credit, broader product bundling, and (eventually) sharper pricing—especially for mid-market firms that want enterprise tools without enterprise hassle. For investors and operators, it’s Capital One diversifying beyond consumer cards into stickier commercial relationships and fee streams, while picking up deposits that can lower funding costs. And yes, the timing matters: if Washington’s talk of credit-card APR caps gains traction, building a larger business-payments footprint is a logical hedge.

What to Watch: Watch deal scrutiny and integration sequencing—Capital One is still digesting Discover, and “two major integrations at once” is where synergy decks go to get stress-tested. Also watch Capital One’s next earnings commentary for revenue mix targets (consumer vs. commercial) and whether Brex’s platform gets pushed into Capital One’s broader merchant and payments ecosystem. Fintech is still moving fast; now it has a much bigger balance sheet behind it.
Source: businesswire.com

4. GDP Pops, Layoffs Stay Muted

The News: U.S. initial jobless claims rose just 1,000 to 200,000 for the week ending Jan. 17, 2026, undershooting forecasts (207,000 per FactSet; 209,000 in a Bloomberg survey) and reinforcing that layoffs remain unusually low. Continuing claims fell 26,000 to 1.849M for the week ending Jan. 10, the lowest since November. On the growth side, the Commerce Department’s final estimate showed Q3 2025 GDP revised up to 4.4% annualized (from 4.3%), the fastest pace since Q3 2023 and up from 3.8% in Q2, driven largely by stronger exports and investment.

Why It Matters: This is the “still-employed, still-spending” backdrop that keeps paychecks steadier and makes a sudden recession feel less imminent even if hiring has cooled. For markets, it complicates the rate story: low claims plus faster growth gives the Fed less urgency to cut quickly, especially if inflation stays sticky, which can keep borrowing costs higher for longer. The flip side is that resilient growth supports corporate earnings, so risk assets can stay buoyant even when rates stay steady.

What to Watch: Next week’s Fed meeting for any shift in tone: if the Fed emphasizes labor-market strength and growth resilience, markets may price fewer (or later) cuts. The economy is still doing that thing where it looks fine and stressful at the same time.
Source: usnews.com

5. Amazon to Cut Workforce Again

The News: Amazon is preparing a second major wave of corporate layoffs as early as Jan. 27, 2026, targeting thousands of roles and bringing total planned reductions to ~30,000 positions, per Reuters and Bloomberg. The cuts are expected to mirror October 2025’s ~14,000 white-collar layoffs and will hit teams across Amazon Web Services, retail, Prime Video, and HR (People Experience & Technology). The reductions would approach ~10% of Amazon’s ~350,000 corporate workforce, though they remain a small slice of its ~1.58M total employees.

Why It Matters: This is a reminder that even profitable tech giants are still thinning management layers. Job security at the corporate level remains fragile, especially in functions increasingly automated or centralized. Service levels likely won’t change overnight, but cost discipline can show up later as tighter budgets for content, perks, or experimentation. For investors, the message is operational: Amazon is prioritizing speed and flatter orgs over headcount growth, a posture that can lift margins if execution holds without signaling a demand slump.

What to Watch: Watch how deep the cuts go inside AWS and Prime Video, and whether Amazon backfills fewer roles after the 90-day transition window from October expires on Jan. 26. Also listen for tone shifts from CEO Andy Jassy as he’s framed this as a culture reset, not a financial squeeze. If “startup Amazon” is the goal, the org chart is the first milestone.
Source: reuters.com

1. Europe’s Defense Boom Just Rang the Bell

The News: Czech defense contractor Czechoslovak Group (CSG) jumped as much as 32% in its trading debut on Jan. 23, 2026, after pricing its IPO at €25 and hitting around €33 early on Euronext Amsterdam, valuing it at roughly €31.6B–€33B.

Why It Matters: More funding for ammo, vehicles, and production capacity tends to mean more jobs and industrial investment, but also a longer period of elevated government spending (read: budgets competing with everything else). The debut is a loud signal that defense is now a “growth” sector in Europe: the STOXX Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense Index is up ~59% over the past 52 weeks, and public listings are starting to follow the demand. Add policy tailwinds like the European Commission’s €90B loan proposal for Ukraine (2026–2027) that pushes purchases toward European manufacturers and you get a bid that looks more structural than cyclical.

What to Watch: Reuters notes the company has guided to up to €7.6B in 2026 revenue and is targeting dividends starting in 2027, which will matter for long-only funds deciding if this is “defense tech” or “defense cash flow.” Also watch the next wave: more defense IPOs are already being teed up for 2026 (KNDS has signaled listing plans), and CSG’s performance is the new yardstick. One thing is clear: investors aren’t treating defense like a niche anymore.
Source: cnbc.com

2. China’s FDI Slide Continues

The News: Foreign direct investment into China totaled 747.7B yuan ($107.4B) in 2025, down 9.5% YoY, extending a three-year decline, China’s Ministry of Commerce reported on Jan. 23, 2026. The drop is milder than 2024’s -27.1% fall to 826.3B yuan, but it still signals sustained caution from multinationals. A few countries bucked the trend—MOFCOM said investment from Switzerland (+66.8%), the UAE (+27.3%), and the U.K. (+15.9%) increased.

Why It Matters: Weaker inbound investment can translate into fewer new plants, slower job creation in foreign-funded supply chains, and less competitive pressure that can keep prices down especially in sectors where multinationals historically brought capital and know-how. For businesses and markets, the message is “de-risking, not decoupling”: firms keep operating in China, but are more selective about expanding, while capital shifts toward “safer” geographies and higher-tech niches. China is trying to offset the drag with reinvestment-friendly policies and faster approvals, but geopolitics and policy uncertainty remain the main weight on big-ticket commitments.

What to Watch: Watch 2026 guidance signals from multinationals—capex plans, supplier diversification, and whether “China+1” becomes “China+2.” The headline number matters but the real story is where the money is still willing to land.
Source: money.usnews.com

3. Davos Urges Calm

The News: Global economic leaders wrapped up the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 23, 2026, urging governments and businesses to tune out tariff turmoil and focus on sustaining growth. Christine Lagarde, Kristalina Georgieva, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the global economy is proving more resilient than feared, even after a week rattled by U.S. tariff threats tied to Greenland that were later withdrawn. Okonjo-Iweala noted that 72% of global trade still operates under WTO rules, despite what she called the biggest disruption in 80 years.

Why It Matters: Trade continuity helps keep shelves stocked and price spikes contained even when politics get loud. The message was steady-handed: growth is holding, but it’s thin. Georgieva cited the IMF’s 3.3% global growth forecast for 2026, calling it “beautiful but not enough,” warning it won’t solve debt burdens or inequality on its own. Lagarde pushed back on talk of a permanent “rupture,” arguing economies remain deeply interdependent though she acknowledged Europe must improve its investment climate and innovation pace.

What to Watch: Whether calm rhetoric translates into policy follow-through. EU leaders are weighing competitiveness measures, while markets will track if tariff threats truly fade or resurface in new forms.
Source: bnnbloomberg.ca

Q: What’s orange and sounds like a parrot?

A: A carrot.

✅ Idea Dump: Set a timer for 5 minutes. Write down as many business or project ideas as you can. No filter, just quantity.
✅ The Two-Minute Rule: If a task takes less than 2 minutes, do it right now. Pick three today.
✅ Over The Weekend: Browse top free courses from universities, learn something new in an afternoon.

Upgrade Your Inbox: Join hundreds of thousands of readers getting smart, no-BS insights from today’s fastest-growing finance, investing, and tech newsletters—all free in one bundle. Grab it here.

Note: Newsletter lineup rotates regularly to highlight what readers love most.

An analysis conducted to determine whether a proposed project is viable and likely to succeed, considering factors like cost, technical challenges, and benefits.

“The feasibility study concluded that the new product line would be profitable and sustainable.”

Love reading Afternoon Finance?
Click here to share with your friends and family. ✈️