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Good Afternoon. Today’s the first day of fall, and markets are bracing for their own seasonal shift: Nvidia just dropped $100B on OpenAI, Apple’s iPhone 17 is sparking an upgrade rush, and cardboard box demand is flashing a worrying consumer signal. Let’s get into it.
—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor
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🔍 Section Focus
🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥
AI Investments: Nvidia keeps its investment streak going with a $100B bet on OpenAI. The question is: is this empire-building through diversification or bubble-chasing?
🥶 What’s Not: 🥶
Cardboard Boxes: Demand has collapsed to near decade-lows, from less Amazon hauls to a housing slowdown, fewer boxes moving around means less stuff being bought, not exactly the kind of packaging investors like to see on their doorstep.
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🇺🇸 U.S. News
1. Nvidia stock jumps on $100B OpenAI investment
The News: Nvidia surged 4% Monday after announcing it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, guaranteeing at least 10 gigawatts of compute capacity, equivalent to 4–5 million GPUs, to train the next wave of ChatGPT models. The first phase, powered by Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, will go live in 2026. For scale, the project is five times larger than Meta’s Louisiana AI data center under construction.
Why It Matters: The deal cements Nvidia as both investor and supplier, ensuring its chips dominate AI’s most ambitious workloads. But critics warn Nvidia is acting as OpenAI’s “investor of last resort,” recycling capital into chip sales while OpenAI racks up costly commitments. What to watch: whether traditional investors step in and or if OpenAI’s next model comes with price increases.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
2. TikTok’s Algorithm to Be Secured by Oracle in Trump-Backed Deal
The News: Oracle will lease a copy of the algorithm from ByteDance and then retrain TikTok’s U.S. algorithm under a Trump-approved deal that hands control of the app’s recommendation software and U.S. user data to American investors. The plan gives Oracle authority to rebuild TikTok’s U.S. algorithm “from the ground up” while hosting all American user data in its cloud, cutting ByteDance’s stake below 20% and excluding it from security oversight. A U.S.-led board would run the new venture, with Oracle partnering closely with the federal government on monitoring.
Why It Matters: The algorithm is TikTok’s crown jewel — the secret recipe that keeps users engaged. U.S. lawmakers have long feared Beijing could use ByteDance ties to harvest data or shape narratives, and this deal is designed to sever those links without banning the app outright. Still, critics warn retraining an algorithm may not fully cut China out, leaving political and technical risks. What to watch: whether Congress signs off, if ByteDance resists losing control, and if Oracle can actually rebuild TikTok’s magic feed without breaking what makes it addictive. After all, nobody opens TikTok hoping to scroll through a “For You” page that looks like LinkedIn.
Source: bloomberg.com
3. Apple Stock Surges to 2025 High on iPhone 17 Demand
The News: Apple shares climbed 4% Monday to $256.64 intraday, their highest level since December, as the iPhone 17 launch fueled optimism about a long-awaited upgrade cycle. Ship times are running longer than last year’s iPhone 16, especially in China where a 15% government subsidy is boosting demand. Analysts say strong Chinese adoption is critical as Apple fights Huawei and Xiaomi for market share. Wedbush’s Dan Ives lifted his price target to $310, the highest on Wall Street.
Why It Matters: Apple had been down nearly 30% earlier this year on tariff fears and AI stumbles. The iPhone 17 rebound could reset growth expectations heading into 2026, while also expanding the installed base that powers Apple’s services business. Still, weaker interest in the new thin iPhone Air and questions about product mix leave some risk on the table. What to watch: whether early sales momentum translates into sustained upgrades or if Apple fans are just lining up for the base model. For now, a shiny new iPhone continues to be the main attraction for Apple.
Source: msn.com
4. Cardboard-Box Demand Slumps, Flashing Warning for Economy
The News: Box demand has fallen to its lowest since 2016, triggering mill closures that cut 9% of U.S. containerboard capacity this year, double the hit seen in the 2009 recession. International Paper is shutting two Georgia mills by month-end, while rivals like WestRock and Packaging Corp. consolidate capacity to preserve pricing. Linerboard still fetches ~$945/ton, up from $725 pre-pandemic, but e-commerce cutbacks and weaker consumer spending are dragging shipments.
Why It Matters: Box demand could be one of the best hidden economic indicators. Boxes are a proxy for goods demand, fewer shipments suggest softer retail sales, weaker housing turnover, and slower manufacturing. What to watch: whether box demand rebounds into the holiday season or keeps shrinking, a potential red flag for the broader U.S. economy. If cardboard is out of work, Main Street might be too.
Source: wsj.com
5. Seattle Faces a Post-Boom Tech Reality
The News: Seattle, once supercharged by Amazon and Microsoft, is feeling the sting of tech’s pullback. The two giants have cut more than 46,000 jobs since 2023, 85% of the region’s tech layoffs, sending ripples through restaurants, retail, housing, and even barista job postings now filled with ex-tech résumés. Office vacancies are at records, 450 restaurants have closed this year, and home sales have gone flat. For a city where tech drives nearly 40% of the workforce, the slowdown is rewriting its identity.
Why It Matters: Seattle is showing signs of what happens when a city’s economy leans too heavily on two employers. For investors, the risk is clear: regional tax revenues, housing markets, and small businesses rise and fall with Big Tech’s headcount. What to watch: whether AI-driven efficiency gains deepen the layoffs, or if startups launched by ex-Amazonians and ex-Microsofties can restart the growth engine.
Source: wsj.com
🌎 World News
1. US Signals Lifeline for Argentina’s Peso Crisis
The News: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is “ready to do what is needed” to stabilize Argentina’s financial turmoil, including possible peso and debt purchases. The pledge, ahead of a Milei–Trump meeting in New York, briefly lifted Argentine stocks and bonds after weeks of selloffs tied to plunging reserves and election setbacks for Milei’s austerity agenda.
Why It Matters: Argentina has defaulted nine times in its history, and Milei’s credibility rests on proving his radical reforms can avoid a tenth. For the US, supporting a key Latin American ally is as much geopolitical as economic, keeping Argentina aligned with Washington over Beijing. What to watch: whether US backing steadies the peso before October’s midterms. If not, Milei’s “chainsaw economics” could be blunted by political backlash at home.
Source: bbc.com
2. Oura Nears $11B Valuation in $875M Funding Round
The News: Oura Health, a Finnish health technology company & maker of the Oura Ring, is closing an $875M Series E that values it near $11B, double its worth less than a year ago. The Finnish wearable giant has sold 3M rings in the past year (over half of its lifetime total) and is on pace to hit $1B in 2025 revenue. Partnerships are expanding too: Amex Platinum cardholders can now expense up to $200 annually on the ring, cementing its status as both a health tool and lifestyle luxury.
Why It Matters: Oura dominates 80% of the smart ring market and has turned what began as a Kickstarter into a mainstream health brand with both hardware and subscription revenue. For investors, this is one of the largest raises ever in wearables, signaling confidence in the “finger is the new wrist” investment approach. What to watch: whether Oura’s rapid growth stays ahead of rivals like Ultrahuman and Whoop — and whether Oura becomes an acquisition target. Oura by Apple?
Source: techcrunch.com
3. Buffett Bows Out of China’s BYD After 17-Year Ride
The News: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has sold its entire stake in Chinese EV giant BYD, ending an investment that began in 2008 with a $230 million bet and returned billions. The exit, revealed in a May SEC filing, had been expected after years of gradual stake trimming. BYD, now worth about $137 billion, recently overtook Tesla in global EV sales but faces slowing growth and heavy competition in China’s discount-driven auto market.
Why It Matters: Buffett’s departure removes a marquee backer just as BYD tries to prove it can sustain leadership without cutting into profits. For global investors, it underscores both the massive gains possible in China’s EV boom and the risks of staying too long in an increasingly cutthroat market. What to watch: whether BYD’s 2025 sales force a strategic reset. Sometimes the smartest move isn’t floor it, it’s knowing when to hit the brakes.
Source: forbes.com
🥸 Dad Joke of the Day
Q: Why did the golfer bring an extra pair of pants?
A: In case he got a hole in one.
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📖 MBA Vocab Word of the Day
Quixotic:
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