Good Afternoon. On this day in 1958, Billboard launched its Hot 100 with Ricky Nelson’s “Poor Little Fool” at No. 1.

Today’s market made its own run up the charts: profits delivered the beat, oil turned down the volume, and stocks didn’t need an encore before pushing toward fresh records.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: 93% — That’s Palantir’s year-over-year revenue growth last quarter. The gain is eye-catching, but the more useful takeaway is that customers are moving AI projects from demos into paid, expanding deployments.

Palantir isn’t asking investors to wait for artificial intelligence revenue anymore. Customers are buying now, existing relationships are expanding, and the company’s commercial business is growing fast enough to make today’s AI enthusiasm look less theoretical.

The news: Quarterly revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% from a year ago, while U.S. commercial revenue climbed 149% to $764 million. It’s also seeing strength from government customers, and management lifted its full-year revenue outlook to more than $8.1 billion. Shares were up close to 29% late in the session as investors rewarded the acceleration.

Bottom line: Growth this fast doesn’t make valuation risk disappear; it raises the standard for every report that follows. Businesses should watch contract expansion and customer retention, not only the share-price reaction. If paid deployments keep spreading across departments, the AI software story has a stronger base. If growth cools abruptly, expectations won’t provide much cushion.

Source: Palantir via StockTitan

Caterpillar isn’t only a proxy for roads, mines, and housing anymore. The company’s turbines are helping power data centers, which means the AI spending wave is showing up in heavy machinery long after it leaves a software budget.

The news: Sales and revenue topped $20 billion in a quarter for the first time, and management said order rates remain strong while backlog is growing across its main businesses. It’s benefiting from construction demand, but the more surprising engine is power generation: data-center developers need dependable electricity, and Caterpillar’s turbines are part of that physical buildout. Shares were up close to 6.6%.

What’s next: An order book can’t become revenue without factories, suppliers, and customers keeping projects on schedule. Watch whether data-center demand remains broad enough to offset softer pockets elsewhere and whether rising input costs pressure margins. Caterpillar’s result says the buildout is real, but investors shouldn’t assume every announced facility reaches completion on time.

Source: Associated Press

The job market isn’t reaccelerating, but it hasn’t tipped into a broad retrenchment either. June’s hiring, quitting, and layoffs data stayed remarkably stable, giving employers room to be selective without signaling a sudden collapse in worker demand.

The news: Employers had 7.4 million openings at the end of June, while hires held at 5.3 million and layoffs and discharges remained at 1.8 million. It’s a cooler picture than the post-pandemic frenzy, and the details were uneven: openings rose in transportation, warehousing, and utilities but fell in wholesale trade and nondurable-goods manufacturing.

Big picture: A steady openings count doesn’t guarantee Friday’s payroll report will be strong, because vacancies measure intent while payrolls measure completed hiring. Workers shouldn’t treat stability as bargaining power everywhere, and businesses may want to keep hiring plans flexible. The next clue is whether slower job creation arrives without a meaningful increase in layoffs.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The latest tariff wall isn’t settled policy just because importers are paying it. Twenty-five states are challenging the administration’s new legal route, leaving companies to plan around costs that could survive, change, or eventually be refunded.

The news: The lawsuit targets duties of 10% to 12.5% on 59 countries and the European Union, covering economies that supply 99% of U.S. imports. They’re now imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act and tied to foreign enforcement against forced labor, after the Supreme Court rejected the earlier emergency-powers approach. Small businesses have filed separate challenges, too.

Bottom line: Importers won’t want to price goods as if either side has already won. A durable Section 301 framework could keep costs in place, while another court defeat could create refund claims and fresh policy changes. Finance teams should preserve customs records, model more than one duty scenario, and avoid promises that depend on a quick legal resolution.

Source: El País

The Federal Reserve isn’t changing rates today, but it may be changing how markets learn about the next move. Chair Kevin Warsh wants to reveal less of the central bank’s reaction function, which could make every inflation or jobs report feel more consequential.

The news: Goldman Sachs economists warned that less information could make market pricing more volatile and error-prone. Traders won’t stop forecasting the Fed; they’ll make the same forecasts with fewer clues about which data matter most. That creates two risks: markets may underreact to information the Fed considers important or overreact to noise that officials largely ignore.

What’s next: Investors don’t need to predict every policy move, but they may want more room for prediction errors in bond, mortgage, and refinancing plans. Watch speeches for consistent principles rather than precise promises. A less talkative Fed can restore flexibility, yet it also means companies shouldn’t build budgets around a single expected path for interest rates.

Source: Axios

The Strait of Hormuz isn’t open normally yet, but Iran and Oman are making progress on a shipping plan. That was enough to pull more fear out of oil prices because the route handled about a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas before the war.

The news: The emerging proposal would use an Iranian-controlled route for ships entering the Persian Gulf and an Omani-controlled route for exits, though negotiations aren’t final. U.S. officials object to Iranian approvals or tolls, and any agreement may depend on lifting the blockade of Iranian ports. They’re serious gaps, even as Brent crude fell roughly 5.4% to below $80.

Big picture: A lower oil price doesn’t mean the geopolitical risk has vanished; a cargo ship still reported being struck in the strait Tuesday. Businesses exposed to fuel and freight may get near-term relief, but they’ll want hedges and contingency routes until commercial traffic normalizes. The useful signal is sustained safe passage, not one hopeful headline.

Source: Associated Press

BP isn’t waiting for its renewable-natural-gas investment to mature. The British energy company plans to sell Archaea Energy only four years after buying it, sharpening a wider retreat toward oil and gas under new leadership.

The news: BP bought Archaea for $4.1 billion and has since reduced its carrying value. It’s now preparing a sale while simplifying its portfolio and demanding more discipline from new investments. The decision arrived alongside quarterly profit of about $5.7 billion, more than double the prior-year result as the Iran conflict lifted commodity prices and refining economics.

Bottom line: Strong current profit isn’t the same as a settled long-term strategy. Selling Archaea may free cash and reduce complexity, but it also crystallizes the cost of an acquisition that didn’t fit BP’s new direction. Investors should watch the sale price, debt reduction, and capital-spending mix to see whether simplification improves returns or merely changes the story.

Source: Axios

Southeast Asia’s super-app model isn’t only adding activity; Grab is turning more of that activity into profit. A larger user base gives the company more chances to connect rides, food delivery, advertising, and financial services without paying to reacquire the same customer each time.

The news: Quarterly revenue rose 22% to $997 million, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 54% to $168 million, and monthly transacting users reached a record 54 million. It’s also raising full-year revenue guidance and authorizing another $750 million of share repurchases, a sign that management believes cash generation can support both growth and capital returns.

What’s next: Scale doesn’t remove credit, competition, or regulatory risk, especially as Grab expands financial services across different markets. Watch whether user growth continues without heavier incentives and whether lending losses stay controlled. The strongest version of the story isn’t simply more app traffic; it’s more services per customer with improving economics.

Source: Grab

Q: Why’d the earnings chart get on the dance floor?

A: It couldn’t resist a strong beat.

A valuation measure that compares a company’s price-to-earnings multiple with its expected earnings growth rate.

In a sentence: Palantir’s results explain why investors use the ratio, but it can’t remove the risk that even excellent growth falls short of enormous expectations.

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