Good Afternoon. It's a red Friday and the news has a familiar feel: oil up, stocks down, headlines out of the Middle East, and nobody in a rush to buy the dip. The Nasdaq is officially down 10% from its peak and the S&P is limping toward its ugliest monthly close in more than three years. Trump extended the Iran energy-strike deadline to April 6, but the Pentagon is quietly drawing up plans for 10,000 more boots on the ground. Gold is catching a bid again, crypto is getting smoked, and the VIX just punched above 31. Happy Friday, everyone.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. The Nasdaq Is Officially in Correction

The News: The Nasdaq Composite confirmed correction territory on Thursday, falling 2.38% and now sitting more than 10% below its recent peak. The S&P 500 dropped 1.74%, putting it on track for a roughly 6.8% monthly decline — its steepest since December 2022. On Friday, the selling continued: the Dow shed another 773 points, and all three major indexes are poised for their fifth consecutive weekly loss.

Why It Matters: For investors, this isn't just a bad week — it's a trend. Five straight weeks of declines is the longest losing streak in nearly four years. The culprit is a toxic cocktail of surging oil prices, Middle East uncertainty, and a Fed that can't cut rates while inflation runs hot. For 401(k) holders, March 2026 is a month they'll want to forget.

What to Watch: Whether the S&P 500 follows the Nasdaq into official correction territory. The benchmark is now about 8% off its highs, and another bad week puts it squarely in the danger zone. Earnings season kicks off in a few weeks — corporate guidance will be the next big tell.

Source: WSJ

2. Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman Confirm Merger Talks

The News: French spirits giant Pernod Ricard and Louisville-based Brown-Forman — the maker of Jack Daniel's — confirmed late Thursday that they're in discussions about a "potential business combination." Both companies described the talks as a "merger of equals" and said they won't comment further until an agreement is reached. Bloomberg first reported the discussions earlier in the day.

Why It Matters: This would be the largest deal the spirits industry has ever seen. Pernod owns Absolut, Jameson, and Martell; Brown-Forman controls Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, and Old Forester. A merger would create a portfolio rivaling Diageo's dominance. The backdrop: an industry-wide slump in premium spirits demand is pushing companies to consolidate or die.

What to Watch: Brown-Forman is controlled by the Brown family, which holds supervoting shares. Any deal needs their blessing — and they've historically been protective of independence. Regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and EU is virtually guaranteed given the combined market share.

Source: Bloomberg

3. Google's Memory Breakthrough Sends Chip Stocks Into a Tailspin

The News: Google unveiled "TurboQuant," a new compression technique it claims can slash the memory required to run large language models by a factor of six. The announcement triggered a two-day rout in memory chip stocks: Samsung fell 5%, SK Hynix dropped 6%, and U.S. names like Micron and SanDisk slid at least 5%. Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince called it "Google's DeepSeek moment."

Why It Matters: For investors, this echoes the January 2025 DeepSeek panic — the idea that efficiency gains could crater demand for chips. But the nuance matters: TurboQuant targets flash memory (NAND), not the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in Nvidia's AI accelerators. Samsung and SK Hynix actually stabilized on Friday as the market realized HBM demand is a different story. For consumers, more efficient AI means cheaper, faster tools — eventually.

What to Watch: Whether other labs adopt TurboQuant or develop their own variants. If memory efficiency becomes a race, the NAND flash cycle could peak sooner than expected. HBM makers like SK Hynix may actually benefit as the bottleneck shifts.

Source: CNBC

4. The Senate Passes a DHS Funding Bill

The News: The U.S. Senate passed a Department of Homeland Security funding bill by voice vote early Friday morning, forging a path to end the partial government shutdown that has snarled TSA checkpoints and left travelers stranded for weeks. The bill marks an abrupt reversal for Senate Republicans, who had blocked similar proposals for weeks even as airport wait times ballooned.

Why It Matters: This is about more than TSA lines. The partial shutdown has been an economic drag at a time the U.S. can't afford one — the Iran war is already squeezing growth, and consumer sentiment just cratered. For airlines and the travel industry, every day of shutdown chaos costs real money. For the White House, ending the airport optics is a political imperative heading into a war economy.

What to Watch: The House. Speaker Johnson faces pushback from hardline Republicans who wanted deeper spending cuts tied to the bill. If it stalls in the House, the shutdown — and the airport chaos — continues into next week.

Source: Bloomberg

5. Consumer Sentiment Crashes to Its Lowest Level Since December 2025

The News: The University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index for March plunged to 53.3, well below the preliminary reading of 55.5 and February's 56.6. The decline was broad-based: every age group, income bracket, and political affiliation reported weaker expectations for their personal finances, which fell 7.5% nationally. Year-ahead inflation expectations held at 3.4%.

Why It Matters: Consumers are watching gas prices climb and feeling every penny. The national average has surged roughly $1 since the Iran war began, and the psychological toll is now showing up in the data. For the Fed, sticky inflation expectations at 3.4% are a flashing yellow light — that's the kind of number that keeps rate cuts off the table indefinitely. For retailers heading into spring, a demoralized consumer is the last thing they need.

What to Watch: Whether the sentiment drop translates into actual spending cuts. So far, credit card data has held up reasonably well, but the lag effect of $4+ gasoline tends to bite within 60-90 days.

Source: University of Michigan

1. Trump Extends Iran Energy-Strike Deadline to April 6

The News: President Trump announced late Thursday that he's pausing strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for 10 additional days, pushing the deadline to April 6 at 8 p.m. ET. He said Iran "asked for seven" days and he gave them ten, citing 10 oil tankers Iran allowed through the Strait of Hormuz as a sign of good faith. But the Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the Pentagon is simultaneously weighing the deployment of up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region.

Why It Matters: The mixed signals are dizzying. On one hand, Trump is touting progress — calling Iran's negotiators "begging" for a deal. On the other, the Pentagon is drawing up plans that look a lot like a ground invasion, with Kharg Island (which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports) as a possible target. For markets, the pause bought a temporary reprieve, but Brent crude is still above $104 and the S&P just had its worst day since the war started.

What to Watch: April 6. If the deadline passes without a deal, Trump has promised to "unleash hell" on Iran's energy sector. Whether Pakistan's mediation efforts produce a face-to-face meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in the next 10 days will determine whether this is a real negotiation or just a countdown to escalation.

Source: CBS News

2. Anthropic Wins a Federal Injunction Blocking the Pentagon's Supply-Chain Risk Label

The News: U.S. District Judge Rita F. Lin issued a preliminary injunction on Thursday blocking the Department of Defense from labeling Anthropic — the maker of the Claude AI model — as a supply-chain risk. The Trump administration had designated Anthropic a national security threat after the company raised concerns about military applications of its AI, effectively barring all federal agencies from doing business with it.

Why It Matters: This is the most significant legal battle at the intersection of AI and government power. Anthropic argued that the Pentagon's designation violated its constitutional rights and that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth overstepped his authority. The injunction is a win for AI companies that want to maintain ethical guardrails without being punished by the government. For the broader AI industry, the ruling sets a precedent: the Pentagon can't just blacklist companies for having principles.

What to Watch: The case is far from over — this is just a preliminary injunction. A full trial will determine whether the supply-chain risk designation stands. Meanwhile, watch whether other AI companies feel emboldened to push back on military contracts.

Source: WIRED

3. Consumer Sentiment Craters Globally as the Iran War's Inflation Shock Spreads Beyond U.S. Borders

The News: The economic fallout from the Iran war is going global. Japan's bond yields have blown out to multi-year highs as the Bank of Japan faces pressure to hike rates in April to contain energy-driven inflation. The Japanese yen weakened to 150.96 against the dollar, approaching intervention territory. France reported its 2025 deficit narrowed to 5.1% of GDP — better than expected — but European Central Bank officials warned that the war could force early rate hikes across the continent.

Why It Matters: For global investors, this is the nightmare scenario: a supply shock that forces central banks to tighten into an economic slowdown. Japan, the UK, and the eurozone are all confronting the same problem — energy prices rising faster than wages, squeezing consumers and corporate margins simultaneously. The Bank of England is now pricing in three rate hikes by year-end, a dramatic shift from the cuts markets expected just three months ago.

What to Watch: The Bank of Japan's April meeting is shaping up to be the most consequential in years. If the BOJ hikes, the yen carry trade unwind could send shockwaves through global markets — again.

Source: Bloomberg

Q: How do you keep a bull from charging?

A: Take away its credit card.

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