Good Afternoon. The Northeast got hit with a deep freeze and the markets followed suit, thousands of flights wiped out, stocks sliding on trade chaos and fresh AI nerves. Meanwhile, oil’s war premium is back and safe havens are getting crowded.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

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1. Stocks Fall on AI Angst + Tariff Whiplash

The News: Stocks sold off hard Monday as investors repriced two headaches at once: AI disruption fears and renewed trade uncertainty. The Dow fell ~1.6% (down 800+ points), the S&P 500 slid ~1.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped ~1.2%. Software got hit again—AppLovin and Intuit fell 7%+—while trade-sensitive retailers (American Eagle, Ralph Lauren, Yeti) also sank. Bonds rallied in the risk-off move, while gold and silver climbed and Bitcoin slid toward $65,000.

Why It Matters: The market’s mood continues to shift from “AI = upside” to “AI = who gets disrupted next,” and that’s a broader drag than a single earnings miss. Layer in tariff chaos—Trump bumping the new global surcharge to 15% and the EU pausing its deal ratification—and you get the worst combo for stocks: uncertainty that’s both macro (trade policy) and structural (AI margins/competition). When investors can’t model the rules or the winners, they hide in bonds and metals.

What to Watch: Watch whether the White House clarifies how the 15% tariff will be applied (stacking vs. replacing) and whether refunds happen—policy clarity is the only thing that calms this trade.
Source: wsj.com

2. Blizzard Wipes Out Flights, Takes Airline Stocks Down With Them

The News: Airline and travel stocks slid Monday as Winter Storm Hernando (a fast-intensifying bomb cyclone) basically shut down the Northeast’s air map. FlightAware showed 5,300+ cancellations Monday and 10,000+ through Tuesday, with NYC airports especially wrecked (LaGuardia near-total cancellations, plus heavy cuts at JFK and Boston Logan). Airline shares reacted like you’d expect: American and United down 5%+, Delta off about 4%, JetBlue down about 4%, and the airline ETF off 3%+. Carriers waived change fees for rebooking through at least Feb. 26 as they try to restart service airport-by-airport.

Why It Matters: This is the double hit airlines hate: lost revenue now, plus messy recovery costs later. Even when the storm passes, crews and planes are out of position, schedules get tangled, and Tuesday/Wednesday can stay ugly. For travelers, the real pain is the domino effect—rebooked flights are scarce, hotels spike, and business trips turn into video calls or get extended. For investors, this is a reminder that airlines are still operational leverage in stock form: one weather event can erase a week’s worth of sentiment.

What to Watch: Watch Tuesday’s cancellation count and whether it keeps climbing—recovery speed is the tell for how long the earnings impact lingers. And watch online travel names like Expedia too: they were already under pressure from separate AI-disruption fears.
Source: cbsnews.com

3. Google Ships Gemini 3.1 Pro

The News: Google rolled out Gemini 3.1 Pro (preview) on Feb. 19, pushing it across consumer products (Gemini app, NotebookLM), developer tools (Gemini API/AI Studio), and enterprise (Vertex AI / Gemini Enterprise). Google also announced a partnership with Sea Limited to build an “agentic shopping” prototype for Shopee, plus AI work across Sea’s gaming and fintech ecosystem. The model-launch pitch is performance: independent benchmark tracker Artificial Analysis reported Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview leads its Intelligence Index (about 4 points ahead of a top Anthropic model) and highlighted big gains in reasoning/coding.

Why It Matters: This is Google doing two things at once: (1) trying to win the model race with measurable jumps, and (2) trying to win distribution by embedding Gemini everywhere people already work. The Shopee deal is the other half of the strategy—turn the model into commerce outcomes (search → recommendation → checkout). If Google can make “agentic shopping” feel normal on Shopee, it’s a blueprint for monetizing AI beyond chat windows and a warning shot at TikTok Shop and Lazada.

What to Watch: Watch whether Gemini 3.1 Pro’s “preview” quickly becomes the default model tier for developers (API usage + enterprise deployments), because adoption is the only benchmark Wall Street truly cares about. Watch Shopee’s rollout details—what the agent can actually do (browse, compare, apply promos, pay) and whether it improves conversion without annoying users. And watch Google’s capex narrative: better models are great, but investors will keep asking how fast “AI spend” turns into “AI revenue.”
Source: blog.google.com

4. Tariff Shock Sparks a Crypto Flush

The News: Solana slid below $80 Monday (hitting roughly $77 intraday) as crypto sold off in a broader risk-off move tied to Trump’s weekend tariff escalation. Bitcoin also dipped below $65,000, and liquidations spiked into the hundreds of millions across major tokens, per CoinGlass figures cited in market coverage. The catalyst: markets repriced trade-policy uncertainty after Trump said he’ll raise the new global tariff rate to 15% under Section 122, with the levy set to start Feb. 24 (and limited to 150 days without congressional extension).

Why It Matters: Crypto still trades like a high-beta tech stock when macro uncertainty hits—especially when liquidity is thin and leverage is high. A tariff shock doesn’t directly change Solana’s code, but it does change risk appetite, and that’s what gets vaporized first in a fast selloff. Bitcoin’s “digital gold” story also gets tested here: when real-world uncertainty spikes, actual gold tends to catch bids while crypto often gets sold to raise cash.

What to Watch: Watch Feb. 24 tariff implementation and any follow-on headlines—crypto’s been reacting to policy whiplash as much as fundamentals. Watch liquidation data and ETF flows for stabilization signals; when forced selling cools, prices usually stop falling before the news improves.
Source: barrons.com

5. PayPal Pops on Takeover Chatter After Its Long Stock Slide

The News: PayPal is drawing takeover interest after its stock slump, Bloomberg reported, sending shares up ~7% Monday. The company has reportedly held meetings with banks amid unsolicited approaches; at least one large rival is said to be looking at buying the whole company, while other would-be buyers are eyeing specific assets. Discussions are early and may not result in a deal, and PayPal declined to comment.

Why It Matters: PayPal has become “cheap enough to matter.” The company is a fraction of its 2021 peak valuation (Reuters pegged it at ~$38B+ recently), yet it still sits on valuable plumbing—checkout, Venmo, merchant processing—and a massive user/merchant network. Add the sudden CEO reset (Enrique Lores takes over March 1) and you’ve got classic M&A ingredients: a bruised stock, strategic assets, and a board signaling impatience. The catch: payments is crowded (Apple Pay, Stripe, Adyen), and any deal would drag in regulators especially with PayPal pursuing a U.S. industrial bank charter.

What to Watch: Watch if PayPal starts signaling it’s open to asset sales (Venmo is the obvious dinner bell). And watch the bank charter application timeline; it could complicate a sale or raise the value of owning PayPal’s balance-sheet ambitions.
Source: reuters.com

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1. NASA’s Roman Telescope Hits Final Testing

The News: NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is in final testing at Goddard after engineers completed full assembly late last year. NASA says the $4.3B observatory will run through environmental/performance tests before shipping to Kennedy Space Center this summer for launch prep. While it’s officially slated for launch by May 2027, NASA is targeting an earlier window as soon as fall 2026 (with internal planning pointing to around September) on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy.

Why It Matters: Roman is “Hubble-quality, but wide-angle.” It has a 2.4-meter mirror like Hubble, but its Wide Field Instrument can image a field of view 100× larger, meaning it can survey the sky at a scale Hubble would take decades to match. That’s a big deal for everything from mapping dark energy to finding exoplanets via microlensing—basically: faster discovery, bigger statistical samples, and fewer “we need ten more years of data” caveats. Plus, Roman’s coronagraph is a real tech test for directly imaging exoplanets, which is how you eventually get to “find Earth-like worlds” missions.

What to Watch: Watch whether NASA locks in a firm fall 2026 date once test results come back—space hardware is innocent until proven flightworthy. Also watch how SpaceX and NASA continue to grow their partnership, more confirmed flights will add to SpaceX’s anticipated valuation at IPO.
Source: science.nasa.com

2. Europe’s Oil Stocks Hit an All-Time High as the “Iran Premium” Gets Pricier

The News: Europe’s oil-and-gas sector just tagged a new record. The STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas index rose about 1.5% Monday and pushed past its prior high from 2007, as Brent climbed to a six-month high near $72.44 a barrel. The sector is up roughly 17% YTD, crushing the broader STOXX 600’s ~6.5% gain, as traders keep pricing in the risk of U.S.–Iran escalation.

Why It Matters: This is energy stocks doing what they do when geopolitics heats up: turning “tail risk” into a bid. Higher crude helps integrated majors and producers fast, while the rest of the economy gets the opposite—higher input costs, higher transport costs, and (eventually) higher prices at the pump. The bigger signal is what’s driving it: analysts are warning the move looks more like fear premium than an actual physical shortage, which means it can unwind just as quickly if diplomacy calms down.

What to Watch: Watch headlines around the next round of U.S.–Iran talks—a credible path to a deal can drain the premium, while any “window is closing” rhetoric tends to add to it.
Source: reuters.com

3. EU Hits Pause on U.S. Trade Deal Ratification After “Pure Tariff Chaos”

The News: The European Parliament froze ratification of its U.S. trade deal after Trump replaced the Supreme Court-struck tariffs with a new 15% global surcharge under Section 122, throwing last summer’s Turnberry pact into limbo. The trade committee’s vote that was scheduled for Tuesday was postponed indefinitely, and EU lawmakers plan to regroup on March 4 to decide whether Washington has clarified what, exactly, the new tariff stacks on top of.

Why It Matters: The EU’s message is basically: “We can’t ratify a deal when we don’t know what the deal is.” If the new U.S. surcharge stacks on top of existing MFN tariffs instead of honoring Turnberry’s 15% all-in ceiling (plus carve-outs like aircraft parts and certain pharma), some European goods could suddenly face tariffs well above what was negotiated. That uncertainty is its own tax—companies can’t price, source, or ship confidently when the rules might change again in 150 days.

What to Watch: Watch what Washington says (or doesn’t say) before March 4, because the EU is explicitly demanding written clarity on whether Turnberry’s ceiling still governs. And watch for EU retaliation threats to get louder if the bloc concludes the U.S. is effectively rewriting the pact unilaterally.
Source: reuters.com

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