Good Afternoon. Credit stress is rising just as markets head into one of the busiest data weeks of the year. A bruising selloff in banks / tech and a crypto market gripped by fear have traders on edge ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and long-delayed U.S. reports. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow Sinks 550 Points as Bank and Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of Key Data

The News: U.S. stocks tumbled Monday, with the Dow dropping more than 550 points as selling in bank and AI-linked tech names accelerated through the afternoon. Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, AMD, Super Micro, Dell, Oracle, and CoreWeave all slid despite Berkshire Hathaway revealing a major new stake in Alphabet. The Fed added to the crosscurrents: Vice Chair Philip Jefferson urged policymakers to “proceed slowly” on future cuts, while Governor Christopher Waller said rates should begin moving lower. Investors are bracing for Nvidia earnings Wednesday and a backlog of economic data, including Thursday’s delayed September jobs report. Bitcoin also continued its decline, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.13%.

Why It Matters: The pullback shows markets reassessing both AI valuations and the timing of Fed easing just as consumer data, housing reports, and big-box retail earnings hit the tape. For investors, tighter financial conditions and tumbling megacap tech mean greater volatility around positions concentrated in AI infrastructure and cloud demand. For households, a swingy equity market can translate into shakier retirement-account balances right before the holidays. And with banks sliding alongside tech, rate expectations—not just earnings—are increasingly steering daily moves.

What to Watch: Whether Wednesday’s Nvidia results calm the market or compound the selloff—especially as traders gauge how much risk they really want heading into a week stuffed with delayed economic data and crowded AI trades.
Source: wsj.com

2. Credit Delinquencies Hit Decade High

The News: Newly delinquent U.S. loans hit 5.3% in Q3, the highest since 2014, while serious delinquencies (90+ days) climbed to 3%, according to Rosenberg Research’s analysis of Fed data. The stress spans households and companies: First Brands Group’s bankruptcy revealed $11.6 billion in obligations—nearly double prior disclosures—and left Jefferies and UBS with $715 million and $500 million in exposure. Regional banks felt the fallout too, with Zions and Western Alliance logging fraud-linked losses that sent their stocks tumbling. Household debt reached a record $18.59 trillion, with FHA mortgage delinquencies rising and auto loans nearing multi-decade highs.

Why It Matters: Credit stress is tightening the screws on consumers and banks just as borrowing costs stay elevated and discretionary spending weakens. For households, rising delinquency rates mean damaged credit scores and tougher access to new loans—an early brake on economic momentum. For lenders, fraud cases and messy bankruptcies underscore the risks lurking inside the $1.1 trillion private-credit market, where opaque underwriting could amplify surprises. While Goldman and others downplay systemic risk, the steady rise in distressed corporate debt—up $70 billion in October alone—suggests this credit cycle is far from over.

What to Watch: How quickly rising delinquencies spill into everyday borrowing and whether lenders start tightening standards just as households lean on credit to cover year-end expenses. Because nothing says “holiday spirit” like your bank deciding you’re suddenly too risky.
Source: businessinsider.com

3. Thiel Dumps Nvidia, Fueling Bubble Jitters

The News: Peter Thiel’s latest 13F shows a full exit from Nvidia, unloading 537,000+ shares that made up 40% of his fund just a quarter ago. His equity book shrank from $212 million to $74.4 million, with turnover above 80%, leaving only three megacap holdings: Tesla (39%), Microsoft (34%), and Apple (27%). Nvidia, meanwhile, has blown past targets with quarterly revenue climbing from $39.3B to $46.7B and data-center sales up 56%. But Thiel—who’s repeatedly compared today’s AI fervor to 1999-style hype—is rotating toward diversified platforms instead of pure-play chip momentum.

Why It Matters: Thiel’s pivot won’t move markets on its own, but it adds high-profile weight to growing skepticism about AI stock froth. For investors, the message is clear: breathtaking fundamentals don’t negate cycle risk, especially with megacaps priced for decade-long perfection. His shift into Microsoft and Apple suggests a preference for AI monetization through cloud, devices, and software—models with steadier cash flow and less supply-chain whiplash. And as other heavyweights like Bezos, Solomon, and Burry flag bubble conditions, the drumbeat is getting harder to ignore.

What to Watch: How retail and institutional money responds if AI leaders stumble even slightly—because nothing ruins a hype cycle faster than discovering your “can’t-miss” stock just turned into a very expensive history lesson.
Source: thestreet.com

4. Bezos Returns as Co-CEO to Lead $6.2B AI Manufacturing Startup

The News: Jeff Bezos is stepping back into an operational CEO role for the first time since 2021, joining physicist and former Google X executive Vik Bajaj as co-CEO of Project Prometheus, a stealth AI startup that has already raised $6.2 billion—one of the largest early-stage rounds ever. The company has nearly 100 employees, including researchers from OpenAI, Meta, and DeepMind, and aims to apply AI to engineering and manufacturing across computing, automotive, and aerospace. Bezos, who contributed some of the funding, is betting that the next wave of AI will transform physical production, not just software.

Why It Matters: While most AI megafunding has flowed to model builders, Prometheus is going after the trillion-dollar frontier where AI meets factories, robotics, and industrial design. For manufacturers, the promise is faster R&D cycles, automated testing, and cheaper prototyping—areas that could reshape supply chains and equipment costs. For investors, Bezos returning to day-to-day leadership signals conviction that AI-powered physical systems could rival cloud computing in scale. The move also intensifies competition with Alphabet as both companies race to industrialize applied AI.

What to Watch: Whether Prometheus can turn its colossal war chest into real-world breakthroughs or if Bezos just signed up for the world’s most expensive science fair project.
Source: nytimes.com

5. Crypto Fear Index Hits Extreme Low as Bitcoin Wipes Out 2025 Gains

The News: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 10 on Nov. 17—its lowest reading since July 2022—as Bitcoin slid below $94,000, briefly touching $92,900 before stabilizing near $95,000. BTC is now down 26% from its October record and has erased all 2025 gains. The broader crypto market shed 5.8% last week: Ethereum fell 11% to ~$3,188, Solana dropped 15%, and XRP slid 9%. Outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hit $1.11 billion for the week, including a record single-day $866.7 million redemption. Long-term holders sold 815,000 BTC over 30 days— the heaviest wave since early 2024—while Bitcoin triggered a technical “death cross.”

Why It Matters: Crypto’s selloff has become a full sentiment reset, fueled by fading expectations of a December Fed cut (now ~50% odds), heavy institutional withdrawals, and long-term holders finally trimming risk. For retail investors, the mix of technical breakdowns and volatility means tighter liquidity, wider spreads, and more sudden price air-pockets. For institutions, ETF outflows signal a pause in the once-relentless demand that helped propel Bitcoin’s spring rally. And while Michael Saylor added 8,178 BTC at ~$102,000 per coin, even deep-pocketed buyers aren’t stemming the broader downdraft.

What to Watch: Whether Bitcoin can reclaim key technical levels this week—and if ETF outflows slow—since persistent redemptions could push even long-term believers to reassess how much pain they’re willing to stomach.
Source: coindesk.com

1. Global Stocks Slip as Investors Brace for Nvidia Earnings and Asia Tensions

The News: European markets opened lower Monday, with Germany’s DAX down 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 off 0.3%, after a mixed session across Asia. Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.1% as GDP contracted at a 1.8% annualized pace in Q3, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.7% amid escalating China–Japan tensions over Taiwan. The exception was South Korea, where the Kospi jumped 1.9%, led by SK Hynix’s 8.2% surge and Samsung’s 3.5% gain following new AI cooperation plans with Nvidia. U.S. futures pointed modestly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% after Friday’s choppy session left the index still within 2.3% of record highs.

Why It Matters: Global markets are trading cautiously ahead of Nvidia’s Wednesday earnings—the single most influential catalyst for both U.S. tech and Asia’s semiconductor-heavy indexes. Japan’s contraction and rising geopolitical friction add another layer of uncertainty, potentially affecting tourism, supply chains, and cross-border investment. Meanwhile, Europe’s softness mirrors growing investor concern that valuations, especially in tech, look stretched after months of rapid gains. With oil steady and the dollar firming, macro positioning is shifting toward defense while traders wait for clarity on AI demand and global growth.

What to Watch: Whether Nvidia’s results stabilize global sentiment—or spark a broader rethink on tech valuations—because nothing tests investor conviction like a single earnings call holding half the world’s market mood hostage.
Source: dtnpf.com

2. Japan Plans to Cut Crypto Tax to 20% and Treat Tokens Like Securities

The News: Japan’s Financial Services Agency is preparing a major crypto overhaul that would slash taxes on digital-asset gains from up to 55% today to a flat 20%, matching the capital-gains rate on stocks and bonds, per Asahi Shimbun. The plan would reclassify 105 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. That shift brings strict new rules: exchanges must disclose detailed token information—issuers, blockchain mechanics, volatility, and risks—and crypto would fall under insider-trading laws for the first time, enforceable by the Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission.

Why It Matters: A 20% flat tax could make Japan one of the most crypto-friendly major economies overnight, drawing retail traders and institutional interest back into a market where 90% of domestic exchanges are reportedly unprofitable. Allowing banks and insurers to offer crypto through securities units could also widen mainstream adoption. But the heavier regulatory touch—especially around disclosures and insider trading—may pressure smaller exchanges and reshape Japan’s digital-asset landscape. Globally, Tokyo’s move could become a blueprint as more governments seek orderly (and taxable) crypto markets.

What to Watch: Whether lawmakers embrace the tax cut in 2026 and whether Japan’s traders rush back in before regulators remind everyone that “friendlier taxes” and “tighter rules” often show up to the party together.
Source: reuters.com

3. EU Targets AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud in New Digital Markets Act Probe

The News: The European Commission plans to investigate whether AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud should face Digital Markets Act restrictions, sources say—potentially expanding the law’s reach beyond consumer platforms to the infrastructure powering much of the internet. The move follows several high-profile outages: a 15-hour AWS failure that hit Apple and McDonald’s; an Azure disruption that halted Alaska Airlines check-ins and paused over 400 votes in the Scottish Parliament; and a Google Cloud outage that knocked out Spotify, Discord, and Snapchat. With AWS holding 30% of global share, Azure 20%, and Google Cloud 13%, regulators are assessing dominance, interoperability gaps, and whether bundling and data-portability rules should apply to cloud vendors.

Why It Matters: A DMA expansion into cloud would reshape Europe’s digital economy, forcing hyperscalers to make it easier for companies to switch providers, migrate data, and integrate rival software. For businesses, that could mean lower switching costs and fewer single-point failures—critical after months of headline-making outages. For Big Tech, it raises the risk of new compliance burdens just as AI workloads, enterprise demand, and multicloud strategies accelerate. And with prior DMA fines of €200 million for Meta and €500 million for Apple, enforcement isn’t theoretical.

What to Watch: Whether Brussels pulls the trigger on gatekeeper status for cloud giants as regulators look to a “multicloud strategy” to ensure a 15-hour outage never happens again.
Source: bloomberg.com

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