Good Afternoon. Markets already hit “undo.” After a bruising tech-led slide, the Dow ripped to 50,000 on a 1,100-point rebound that looked a lot like investors deciding the panic got ahead of the data. Bitcoin bounced, too, because of course it did. Meanwhile, beneath the rally, the real debate hasn’t changed: who can justify massive AI spending, and who’s quietly writing down yesterday’s big bets.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow 50,000: The Bounce That Says “Maybe We Overreacted”

The News: U.S. stocks rebounded on Feb. 6, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping about 1,100 points (+2%+) to cross 50,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq climbed about 2% after dropping roughly 4.5% over the prior three sessions, as investors cited solid earnings and a still-resilient economy. Risk assets bounced too: bitcoin rose ~10% to trade near $70,000, retracing a chunk of Thursday’s slide. Not everything joined the party—Amazon lagged as investors stayed uneasy about outsized AI capex, and Stellantis fell after signaling a roughly $26B EV-related hit.

Why It Matters: Milestones are mostly psychological but psychology drives spending and confidence. A sharp rebound alongside improving sentiment data suggests households and markets aren’t yet acting like a recession is imminent, even with higher layoff chatter. Earnings and “soft landing” data are supportive, but the market is still sorting winners and losers inside big themes like AI spending and the EV reset. In other words, the index can rip higher while certain narrative-heavy stocks keep getting repriced. One of the many benefits to index investing.

What to Watch: Watch whether the rally holds once the next wave of data hits—especially inflation expectations and the next jobs news—because the week’s volatility has been about “macro confidence” as much as tech.
Source: wsj.com

2. Amazon Beats on AWS, But Wall Street Hears “$200B” and Hits the Brakes

The News: Amazon’s Q4 results beat expectations, led by AWS revenue of $35.6B (+24% YoY), but shares slid after the company flagged a step-up to roughly $200B of 2026 capital spending and guided Q1 2026 operating income to $16.5B–$21.5B, below consensus. Amazon said the spending surge is aimed at AI infrastructure—data centers and custom silicon—as it scales to meet demand, even as investors worry the near-term payoff won’t match the near-term bill.

Why It Matters: “AI capex” isn’t abstract: it’s what determines whether cloud prices stay competitive and whether AI features show up in Prime, shopping, and workplace tools without getting paywalled into oblivion. This is the new megacap tension—AWS is accelerating, but the AI arms race is turning cash flow into concrete and chips at a pace that can compress margins and spook valuations. Amazon is effectively asking the market to underwrite a multi-year infrastructure build while accepting bumpier quarterly profitability.

What to Watch: Watch Amazon’s next updates on AI backlog conversion—i.e., whether spending translates into higher utilization and pricing power at AWS rather than just more capacity. If you’ve always wanted own Amazon, now may be a good time while it’s on “discount.”
Source: ir.aboutamazon.com

3. Bob Evans Goes Private

The News: Bob Evans Restaurants has been acquired by New York-based private equity firm 4x4 Capital from Golden Gate Capital, the companies announced on Feb. 5, 2026. Terms weren’t disclosed. CEO Mickey Mills will stay on, and 4x4 co-founder Gustavo Assumpção will serve as executive board chair. Golden Gate bought Bob Evans in 2017 for $565 million, and the chain now operates roughly 400 restaurants after closing dozens of locations over that period.

Why It Matters: This is a familiar private-equity play in family dining: hold onto the “value for families” positioning, tighten operations, and try to refresh the experience without breaking the price point. A new owner can mean menu tweaks and marketing spend… or it can mean margin-first cost cuts.

What to Watch: Watch for early signals of the new strategy—store remodel pace, menu/pricing changes, and whether closures slow (or accelerate) under 4x4. Also watch the competitive set: after Denny’s went private in late 2025, PE is clearly circling “everyday value” dining again. Let’s see if they can avoid the Cracker Barrel logo debacle.
Source: businesswire.com

4. Earnings Are Still Doing the Heavy Lifting

The News: FactSet’s latest read (data through Feb. 3, 2026) puts S&P 500 Q4 2025 blended earnings growth at 12.1%, up from 7.2% at the start of the quarter and 8.3% by quarter-end, as positive EPS surprises continued to lift the bar. FactSet’s John Butters flagged this as the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index, alongside updates on sector performance, net profit margins, and how often companies are discussing AI on earnings calls. The backdrop is still jittery: markets are weighing solid profits against very large 2026 AI capex plans from megacaps.

Why It Matters: Durable profit growth is what keeps hiring and investment from rolling over. Earnings are delivering now, but AI spending is pulling forward costs and pushing out payoff timelines. Strong profit growth helps justify valuations, but the market is increasingly rewarding companies that can show both (1) earnings momentum and (2) a credible path from AI capex to margins and cash flow. In other words, “beat-and-raise” matters more when everyone is writing big checks.

What to Watch: Watch the next two peak reporting weeks for whether the 12.1% growth rate holds as more companies report and for what Butters highlighted as an emerging signal: AI mentions on earnings calls and how that correlates with guidance. Also watch 2026 expectations, including the gap between “Magnificent 7” growth and the other 493 companies—if breadth improves, it gives the market more cushion; if it narrows, volatility usually follows.
Source: insight.factset.com

5. Public Pensions Bought the Bitcoin Proxy, Now They’re Eating the Volatility

The News: Eleven U.S. state pension funds are sitting on roughly $337 million in paper losses on Strategy (MSTR) shares as bitcoin’s selloff drags the company’s leveraged “bitcoin treasury” trade lower. The funds collectively hold about 1.8 million shares now worth roughly $240 million, down from about $577 million when the positions were last reported. The pain is concentrated in big systems like New York State’s fund (about $53 million down) and Florida’s retirement system (about $46 million down). Meanwhile, Strategy itself remains the largest corporate bitcoin holder, reporting 713,502 BTC held at a total cost of $54 billion.

Why It Matters: For retirees, this isn’t “crypto in a corner of the portfolio” — it’s a reminder that buying a bitcoin-linked stock is often more volatile than buying bitcoin itself, because the equity behaves like leveraged exposure with financing and sentiment risk layered on top. The headline risk is governance: public funds exist to be boring on purpose, and large drawdowns invite political scrutiny, tighter investment policy, and potential limits on “proxy” exposures that function like crypto bets.

What to Watch: Bitcoin is back up, but it needs to stabilize above key psychological levels to help keep ETF outflows to a minimum, as Strategy’s stock typically magnifies the underlying move. Also watch the policy reaction: Sen. Elizabeth Warren has already pressed regulators on crypto exposure in retirement accounts in a Jan. 12, 2026 letter to the SEC, and more losses in public plans can turn “risk disclosure” into “rulemaking” fast.
Source: reuters.com

1. China Slams the Door on Crypto Again

The News: China’s central bank and seven other agencies issued a joint notice on Feb. 6, 2026 reiterating that crypto-related business activities are “illegal financial activities” and tightening enforcement around trading, marketing, payments, and cross-border issuance. The notice bars domestic entities and their controlled overseas entities from issuing virtual currencies abroad without approval, and explicitly warns against unapproved yuan-linked stablecoins. It also moves to rein in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization—particularly offshore tokens tied to onshore Chinese assets—signaling Beijing wants to eliminate “grey-zone” token issuance while requiring regulators to strictly oversee any structures that touch mainland assets.

Why It Matters: This is Beijing drawing a bright line: private crypto rails are out; state-backed digital money is in. For markets, it’s a reminder that China’s posture isn’t “softening” just because tokenization is trendy—if anything, the policy direction is toward a controlled, permissioned version of digital assets that protects capital controls and monetary sovereignty. For crypto investors globally, the direct price impact may be limited (China already banned exchanges), but the indirect impact is real: it reduces the likelihood of large-scale mainland demand returning and pushes innovation into Hong Kong or offshore jurisdictions.

What to Watch: Watch whether regulators publish execution rules that clarify what tokenized products can exist offshore when backed by onshore assets—and which agencies sign off (that will determine whether “strictly regulated” becomes “effectively banned”).
Source: reuters.com

2. Europe Wants a “Euro Stack”

The News: The European Commission urged eurozone finance ministers to discuss boosting the euro’s global role by supporting euro-denominated stablecoins and expanding joint EU debt issuance, according to a Commission document seen by Reuters. Ministers are set to take up the topic on Feb. 16, 2026, with the paper arguing the EU needs more financial “security” as trade tensions rise and payments tech evolves. The Commission noted the euro is about 20% of global reserves versus the dollar’s ~60%, and warned euro stablecoins are still tiny—about €395 million versus $280+ billion for the overall stablecoin market, per ECB figures cited in the document.

Why It Matters: This is about payments and borrowing costs in plain English: a credible euro stablecoin ecosystem could mean cheaper, faster cross-border payments and less reliance on U.S.-centric rails—if it’s built safely and actually gets adopted. However, the bigger lever is joint debt. The U.S. benefits from a massive, liquid Treasury market; the EU’s joint debt stack is much smaller (about €1 trillion outstanding, per Reuters), which limits the euro’s appeal as a “safe” asset at scale. More jointly issued EU paper could deepen euro capital markets but it’s politically hard, especially with northern countries wary of mutualizing risk.

What to Watch: Watch the Feb. 12, 2026 EU leaders meeting where ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to present a related reform checklist, and the Feb. 16 finance-ministers session for any concrete next steps (mandates, timelines, or a push to formalize a euro stablecoin framework).
Source: money.usnews.com

3. The Great EV Reality Check: $55B in Write-Downs

The News: Global automakers have booked roughly $55 billion in EV-related write-downs over the past year as they reset electrification plans amid softer demand, policy shifts, and tougher Chinese competition. The latest and largest hit came from Stellantis, which announced €22.2 billion ($26.5B) in charges tied to scaling back EV ambitions and related supply-chain and warranty costs. Other big impairments include Ford’s $19.5B charge (announced Dec. 16, 2025) and GM’s $6B EV pullback charge (announced Jan. 9, 2026), much of it related to supplier settlements and contract cancellations as volumes and plans were “right-sized.

Why It Matters: The near-term implication is more hybrids and fewer “all-in EV” rollouts—especially in North America—plus a higher chance that automakers steer incentives toward models that actually move. It also means the post-credit price environment matters more: when demand slows, manufacturers either cut prices, add rebates, or slow production. These charges are the financial cost of getting the timeline wrong—capex has already been spent, and now companies are admitting the revenue ramp won’t match prior assumptions. That usually leads to tighter spending, more platform consolidation, and a renewed fight for margins.

What to Watch: Watch U.S. EV demand and pricing after the federal credit changes tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025) and how quickly automakers lean into hybrid-heavy lineups versus lower-cost EVs. Also watch whether more impairments land in 2026 as companies revisit battery plants, supplier contracts, and model pipelines built for a faster adoption curve. The write-downs are the accounting; the product mix is the strategy.
Source: forbes.com

Q: Why did the grape stop rolling?

A: Because it ran out of juice.

✅ Watch: The big game and get ready for a ton of crypto, sports betting and AI commercials. And the rare trifecta of all of those in one commercial.

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