🕟 Dough and behold

Good Afternoon. On October 13, 1960, Bill Mazeroski’s walk-off home run won the World Series for Pittsburgh. One swing settled a championship. The lasting lesson is that a headline result needs the right context before you can judge the performance behind it.

That’s today’s earnings season in miniature. Domino’s grows profit with barely growing U.S. same-store sales, while bank results show the difference between stronger business activity and a cleaner bottom line. We’re following the sources of that growth, and what could sustain them.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: 0.3% — Domino’s U.S. same-store sales growth in the third quarter. The company’s operating profit grew much faster, putting the source of that improvement at the center of today’s report.

Domino’s delivered a stronger profit result with a much thinner layer of U.S. sales growth. Third-quarter same-store sales rose 0.3% domestically and 0.2% internationally, while income from operations increased 8.3%. New CEO Joe Jordan inherits a business still expanding its footprint as existing stores grow more slowly.

The news: Revenue rose 3.4%, helped by supply-chain sales and franchise royalties. The company added 175 net stores worldwide, and procurement improvements increased its supply-chain gross margin. Those details explain how earnings can improve without a comparable acceleration at established restaurants: a larger network and better economics in the supply business both contribute to the result.

What’s next: The next sales update will show whether established stores start contributing more alongside new openings. Watch the relationship between same-store growth, franchise expansion and supply-chain margins. Each supports profit differently, and today’s report makes that distinction useful before assuming the earnings improvement reflects a stronger underlying appetite for pizza.

Source: Domino’s Pizza

JPMorgan posted third-quarter net income of $15.3 billion, or $5.57 a share. Excluding a discretionary investment-securities loss, those figures were $15.8 billion and $5.75. That adjustment matters when comparing the earnings headline with the performance of the bank’s operating businesses.

The news: The securities loss reduced net income by $498 million after tax. Managed revenue reached $50.9 billion, while credit costs totaled $2.7 billion, including a reserve increase. Earnings therefore reflect several separate decisions and outcomes: revenue earned from customers, the cost of running the bank, provisions for credit risk and losses realized in the investment portfolio. One overall number combines all of them.

Big picture: Bank earnings help reveal how households and companies are handling borrowing costs, but adjustments deserve the same attention as the headline. Follow lending, deposits and credit costs alongside reported profit. A securities transaction can depress one quarter’s result even when customer activity remains strong, while reserves signal management’s preparation for losses that could arrive later.

Source: JPMorgan Chase

Main Street’s mood slipped again. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points to 97.9 in September, just below its long-term average. Only 7% of owners said it was a good time to expand, down five percentage points from August.

The news: Labor quality or availability remained the most commonly reported problem, cited by 26% of owners; inflation followed at 20%. The uncertainty measure rose, and expectations for better business conditions weakened. Among owners hiring or trying to hire, most still reported few or no qualified applicants. That combination can restrain expansion even when a business has work available: higher costs squeeze the budget, and filling the next position remains difficult.

Bottom line: This is a survey of NFIB members, rather than a census of every small employer. Its useful signal is the gap between operating needs and confidence about committing more money. Watch whether hiring difficulties and inflation concerns ease together. A better demand outlook alone may not restore expansion plans if owners still can’t staff the additional work economically.

Source: NFIB

Agilent agreed to buy digital-pathology software provider Proscia for $240 million in cash at closing, with up to $30 million more tied to future milestones. The acquisition would add a software business to a company already selling the instruments and reagents used in pathology.

The news: Proscia’s platform connects slide scanners, laboratory systems, image-analysis applications and AI tools. Its customers can manage images and workflows in a shared environment, instead of treating each tool as a separate island. Agilent and Proscia have worked together since 2022, and Proscia generated more than $18 million in revenue over the past year. The existing partnership gives this acquisition a practical starting point beyond the appeal of another AI announcement.

What’s next: The deal is expected to close early in Agilent’s fiscal 2027, subject to customary conditions. After closing, the relevant test is whether software integration helps customers use the broader pathology portfolio more effectively. The milestone payments also make part of the purchase price conditional on future performance, separating the initial cash commitment from the maximum possible consideration.

Source: Agilent

Workday signed an agreement to acquire C1.ai, an identity platform that manages access for people and AI agents across business applications. The planned combination addresses a basic operating question: when a worker or agent changes roles, who removes the permissions it no longer needs?

The news: C1.ai connects to systems ranging from email and customer-management software to code repositories and cloud infrastructure. Workday wants to link those permissions to the employment and agent information it already manages. That could reduce the manual tickets and periodic reviews used to grant or revoke access today. The proposed capabilities extend Workday’s Agent System of Record from registering agents toward controlling what those agents can actually reach.

Big picture: As businesses delegate more work to software, permission management becomes part of deploying it responsibly. Useful automation requires access, but outdated access can remain after the original task ends. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of Workday’s fiscal 2027, which ends January 31. These are planned integration benefits; the completed product and closing conditions still determine when customers can use them.

Source: Workday

BP expects a sharp improvement in refining earnings, alongside another reduction in the value of its gas and low-carbon assets. Its third-quarter refining indicator margin reached $46.70 a barrel, up from $29.60 in the previous quarter. Expected impairments total $3 billion to $4.5 billion.

The news: Disrupted oil supplies during the Iran war have supported refining margins. BP estimates the improvement will add $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion to products-segment earnings compared with the previous quarter. Stronger trading, asset sales and a pause in buybacks have also helped reduce debt. The company expects to reach its net-debt target about a year early, although broader obligations include leases, hybrid bonds and oil-spill liabilities.

Bottom line: A strong refining quarter and an asset write-down measure different things. One reflects current operating conditions; the other reduces the recorded value of investments. BP’s full results on October 30 will put them together. Its December strategy update should provide another chance to assess how today’s cash generation translates into the company’s next spending priorities.

Source: Reuters

The IMF nudged its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, from 3.0% in July, while keeping 2027 at 3.4%. Continued investment in AI infrastructure is helping offset the energy shock from the Middle East conflict. That leaves the outlook reliant on two forces moving in opposite directions.

The news: The report, released at the annual meetings in Bangkok, warns about the consequences of an AI investment reversal, growing debt and a longer war. Its baseline also assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens by March and shipping conditions return to their prewar situation by October 2027. Those assumptions are part of the forecast, rather than events that have already occurred. A growth projection can improve while its underlying risks remain substantial.

What’s next: Watch actual energy access and investment spending against the conditions built into the forecast. If AI investment slows or shipping disruptions last longer, the expected recovery becomes harder to achieve. Debt adds another constraint: governments entering the next shock with stretched finances may have less room to cushion its effect on households and businesses.

Source: Reuters

Jardine Matheson lifted its 2026 underlying earnings guidance to $5.50–$5.65 a share, from $5.33, and acquired Balfour Beatty’s 50% stake in Gammon Construction. The completed purchase makes Jardine the sole owner of the Asian construction and engineering business with immediate effect.

The news: The total cash price is £250 million, approximately $330 million, paid in three equal installments: at completion, at the end of 2027, and in December 2028. Jardine expects the transaction to add modestly to earnings in its first year. Gammon works on transport, energy, education, data-center and other projects across Hong Kong, Singapore and the region. Full ownership brings more of that business under Jardine’s engineering and infrastructure platform.

Big picture: The earnings upgrade reflects solid performance across the wider portfolio, while the acquisition expands control of an existing investment. Keep those explanations separate when judging the new forecast. An investor call on October 15 will discuss both developments, followed by the regular November update. The installment schedule also shows that immediate ownership and the full cash outflow arrive on different timetables.

Source: Jardine Matheson

Q: Why was the broom late?

A: It swept in.

Investment horizon: The length of time you expect to keep money invested before needing it for a financial goal. It helps determine which risks and fluctuations you can accommodate.

In a sentence: A long investment horizon changes how you weigh one quarter of Domino’s earnings against the company’s prospects over several years.

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