Good Afternoon. The ceasefire clock stopped with about twelve hours to spare, and Wall Street celebrated. All three major indices are up as traders toast a peace that is still more gesture than deal. Boeing narrowed its loss, AT&T beat on both lines, and Tesla reports after the bell. Oil slipped about 1%, the VIX is back under 19, and somewhere in Frankfurt, Germany's finance ministry is cutting its growth outlook in half.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Nasdaq Hits a New Record as the Ceasefire Extension Wipes Out the Last of the War Premium

The News: U.S. stocks are rallying hard midday with the S&P 500 up ~0.9%, the Dow up ~0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite up ~1.3% to a fresh all-time intraday high. The bid came overnight after President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was indefinitely extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire instead of letting it expire at 11:50 PM GMT. The VIX has crumpled back under 19 and the 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.30%.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the fifth straight session where the peace trade has done the heavy lifting, and today's extension removes the single biggest binary catalyst that was capping multiples. With earnings season running hot — 77% of reporters beating EPS so far — the "war is ending, earnings are fine" narrative is a powerful cocktail for risk assets. For consumers, it's less dramatic: stock gains help 401(k) balances, but energy and food prices still reflect months of war premium that won't unwind overnight.

What to Watch: Tesla after the close is the next big test — it's the first Mag 7 print of the season, and the bar is unusually low after that brutal Q1 delivery report. If Musk throws a juicy robotaxi or FSD update on the call, the Nasdaq rally has another leg. (CNBC)

2. Boeing Narrows Q1 Loss to $0.20, Delivers 143 Jets, and Says "All Systems Go" on the 737 Ramp

The News: Boeing reported Q1 2026 revenue of $22.2 billion (up 14% YoY, ahead of the $21.8 billion estimate) and a core loss of just $0.20 per share versus the $0.83 loss Wall Street had penciled in. The company delivered 143 commercial jets — its best Q1 since 2019 — and the total backlog hit a record $695 billion. CEO Kelly Ortberg said on the call that Boeing is "all systems go" to push 737 production above 42 a month later this year.

Why It Matters: For investors, Boeing has been a "show me" story for five straight years, and this is the first quarter where the show is starting to look like a recovery. A 50% jump in defense earnings, a services margin over 18%, and a cash burn that's $800 million smaller than last year all point in the right direction — even if free cash flow is still negative $1.5 billion. For the supply chain — Spirit AeroSystems, Howmet, GE Aerospace — Boeing ramping 737s is the single biggest demand signal in the industrial economy.

What to Watch: Free cash flow guidance. Boeing is sticking with $1-3 billion of positive FCF for full-year 2026, which requires a monster second half. If the Q2 numbers show the 737 ramp and cash flow turn happening on schedule, this stock gets rerated. (CNBC)

3. AT&T Beats on Both Lines and Adds 294,000 Postpaid Phone Subs as the Wireless Grind Keeps Working

The News: AT&T posted Q1 revenue of $31.5 billion (up 2.9% YoY, beating the $31.25 billion estimate) and adjusted EPS of $0.57, two cents ahead of consensus. Postpaid phone net adds came in at 294,000 — well above the 270,000 the Street was looking for — and total mobility net adds were 584,000. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.25-$2.35 adjusted EPS, 3-4% adjusted EBITDA growth, and at least $18 billion of free cash flow.

Why It Matters: For investors, the "boring cash cow" thesis on AT&T is becoming one of the best-performing trades of 2026. The stock is one of the few places you can buy a 4% dividend yield and still get mid-single-digit earnings growth in a market trading at 23x forward. For consumers, the subscriber numbers matter because they show that AT&T's bundle-and-hold strategy is working — churn is low, the convergence push with fiber is real, and the price hikes have stuck.

What to Watch: Free cash flow in Q2. The company maintained the $18 billion FCF floor, and if Q1's $1 billion print doesn't accelerate meaningfully, the market will start whispering about whether the dividend + buyback math really works. (about.att.com)

4. Oil Slips Back Toward $88 as the Peace Premium Unwinds For Now

The News: WTI crude is down about 1% to $88.77 a barrel and Brent is down 0.65% to $97.83, giving back some of yesterday's war-premium spike after the ceasefire extension. API inventory data Tuesday night showed a 4.5 million barrel draw — bigger than the 2 million barrel draw analysts expected — and the official EIA print is due today. OPEC+ has kept production flat through the war, which means any real peace would reopen the supply valve.

Why It Matters: For investors, every dollar off oil is roughly a basis point of US CPI relief and a direct gift to airlines, refiners, and consumer discretionary margins. For consumers, gasoline futures are implying pump prices could drift back below $3.80 a gallon by mid-May if crude stays anchored below $90. The catch is that this whole thing hinges on an "indefinitely extended" ceasefire that Iran has not formally accepted and that Vance's Islamabad trip was just canceled over.

What to Watch: Tonight's EIA inventory number. A second straight week of bigger-than-expected draws would suggest demand is actually recovering into summer driving season — a bullish crude signal that would partly offset the peace-trade selling. (Argaam)

5. Tesla Reports After the Bell

The News: Tesla reports Q1 2026 earnings after the 4 PM close, with consensus looking for $22.27 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.35. The stock is down 14% year-to-date heading into the print, deliveries already came in soft earlier this month, and — more ominously — energy storage deployments dropped from a record 14.2 GWh in Q4 to 8 GWh in Q1. Wall Street is almost universally using the word "inflection" in previews.

Why It Matters: For investors, the setup mirrors last year's nightmare Q1 print almost exactly, which means the bar to beat it is structurally low — and Tesla stocks tend to trade off the call narrative, not the numbers. The market wants three things: an FSD adoption update (it was 1.1 million subs as of Q4), a real robotaxi deployment timeline, and an explanation for why the energy storage business just stalled. For everyone else, Tesla at $390 is still priced like a trillion-dollar AI company, not a car company — and only one of those businesses is profitable.

What to Watch: The earnings call at 5:30 PM ET. If Musk commits to a Q2 robotaxi launch timeline or reveals FSD subs above 1.3 million, the stock moves higher regardless of the headline numbers. If he deflects on energy storage, the sell-side will start building a "humanoid or bust" narrative. (Business Insider)

6. Trump Extends the Iran Ceasefire "Indefinitely" — but Iran Hasn't Signed On and Vance's Pakistan Trip Is Off

The News: Roughly twelve hours before the two-week ceasefire was set to expire, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was extending it indefinitely "until negotiations conclude, one way or the other." He cited internal Iranian disagreement and a request from Pakistan, which is still trying to mediate. The White House has confirmed that Vice President JD Vance's trip to Islamabad to lead peace talks "will not be happening," and an adviser to Iran's parliament speaker called the extension "a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike."

Why It Matters: For investors, this is binary news that just turned into analog news — the hard April 22 deadline is gone, which removes the immediate tail risk but also removes the forcing function that was pushing both sides to the table. For markets, the naval blockade stays in place, which means Iran's economy keeps bleeding an estimated $435 million a day while nobody gets killed. For global oil, it's a "controlled ceasefire" that lets Brent breathe below $100 but caps any real downside until a formal deal exists.

What to Watch: Whether Iran accepts the extension publicly or pushes back. Tehran has not formally agreed, and the "ploy to buy time" language from senior Iranian officials is the kind of signal that has preceded each of the previous three Hormuz reversals. (NYT)

7. Germany Halves Its 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.5%

The News: German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche cut Berlin's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% on Wednesday, down from 1.0% in January. Reiche blamed the Iran war directly, saying "the war in Iran is pushing energy and raw material prices higher," and warned that the recovery officials had expected is "once again being impeded by external geopolitical disruptions." Italy followed by trimming its 2026 outlook to 0.6% from 0.7%.

Why It Matters: For investors, Germany cutting its own outlook in half is a flashing yellow light for European industrials, luxury, and autos — none of which have been priced for a fourth straight year of stagnation. For the ECB, this puts the rate-cut debate back on the table despite inflation still running above target. For U.S. multinationals, Europe is ~25% of S&P 500 foreign revenue, which means the earnings beat parade stateside is running into a demand wall on the other side of the Atlantic.

What to Watch: German PMI data later this week. If April manufacturing rolls back below 48, the ECB's June meeting becomes live for a cut — and the euro weakens further, which helps European exporters but hurts the translation math for U.S. companies selling in. (Euronews)

8. Japan's Nikkei Hits Another All-Time Record as Asia Front-Runs the Peace Trade Again

The News: Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at a fresh record high of 59,585.86, up 0.4% on the session, lifted by improving trade data and the peace-trade tailwind. South Korea's Kospi added 0.4% to 6,413.62 and Australia's ASX 200 fell 1.2% to 8,841. The rally is being led by Japanese exporters — which benefit from a weaker yen — and tech names following TSMC's capex commentary last week.

Why It Matters: For investors, the Nikkei has been the single best performer among major global indices during the ceasefire period, and Japan is the cleanest way to express an "Iran war is ending, Fed is still cutting" thesis without taking on Middle East geopolitical risk directly. For the BOJ, a Nikkei ripping at 59,500 plus core CPI above 3% is the setup where Governor Ueda starts telegraphing a rate hike. For U.S. investors, the dollar-yen is your leash — a stronger yen means your Nikkei gains get bigger, but Japanese exporters start hurting.

What to Watch: The BOJ meeting next week. If Ueda signals a July hike is on the table, the Nikkei's record run gets a gut check. If he stays dovish, Japan's "record every week" streak is very likely to continue. (CNBC)

Q: Why did the computer surf the internet highway?

A: To get to the other website.

A tax rule that resets the cost basis of an inherited asset to its fair market value on the date of the original owner's death, effectively eliminating any capital gains tax on the appreciation that occurred during their lifetime.

Usage: "The beneficiaries pocketed a $2.4 million unrealized gain tax-free thanks to the stepped-up basis — a reminder that sometimes the best tax strategy really is just patience."

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