Good Afternoon. Markets rallied for a second straight session as traders digested the most detailed diplomatic roadmap of the Iran war so far — a 15-point ceasefire plan delivered through Pakistan. Oil tumbled below $100 for the first time in weeks, gold snapped its brutal losing streak, and risk assets from Bitcoin to small-caps caught a bid.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

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1. Trump Sends Iran a 15-Point Peace Plan

The News: The Trump administration sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire proposal through Pakistani intermediaries, the most detailed diplomatic framework since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. The plan reportedly calls for a 30-day ceasefire, dismantling of Iran's Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow nuclear sites, an end to uranium enrichment, restrictions on ballistic missiles, cessation of support for Hezbollah and other proxies, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, the U.S. would lift nuclear-related sanctions and assist Iran's civilian nuclear program at Bushehr.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the first real framework for ending a war that has pushed oil above $100, rattled global supply chains, and sent the VIX above 25 for weeks. Markets initially surged on the news — S&P futures jumped over 1% — before Iran's rejection trimmed gains. The plan's ambition is also its weakness: asking Iran to dismantle its entire nuclear infrastructure while it's under active military assault is a tough sell. For consumers, any path to reopening Hormuz matters — it controls roughly 20% of global oil transit, and its closure has added an estimated $15-20 to every barrel of crude.

What to Watch: Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are reportedly pushing for an in-person summit in Islamabad as soon as Thursday. The White House says Trump's 5-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants expires Friday. If talks collapse, expect the next round of escalation to be swift.

Source: time.com

2. Merck Bets $6.7 Billion on Terns to Plug the Keytruda Hole

The News: Merck agreed to acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion ($53 per share in cash), gaining access to a promising leukemia treatment as it faces the looming patent expiration of Keytruda, its blockbuster cancer immunotherapy that generates roughly $25 billion in annual revenue. Both boards have approved the deal, which is expected to close in Q2. Merck will take a $5.8 billion charge (roughly $2.35 per share) as a result of the acquisition.

Why It Matters: This is the Keytruda cliff in action. When your single biggest drug — responsible for roughly 40% of total revenue — starts losing patent protection, you buy growth wherever you can find it. For investors, the $53 per share price represents a 6% premium to Terns' closing price, which is modest by biotech M&A standards, suggesting Merck negotiated from strength. For the broader pharma sector, this deal signals that patent-cliff anxiety is driving M&A activity, and mid-cap biotechs with late-stage oncology pipelines are squarely in the crosshairs.

What to Watch: Merck still has a Keytruda-sized hole to fill — $25 billion in annual sales doesn't get replaced by one deal. Watch for additional bolt-on acquisitions in the coming quarters. Terns shareholders vote in Q2.

Source: bloomberg.com

3. GameStop Posts a $9 Billion Cash Pile and Everyone's Whispering "eBay"

The News: GameStop reported Q4 results showing $9.01 billion in total cash, equivalents, and marketable securities — nearly double the $4.77 billion held a year ago. The cash buildup was fueled by $4.2 billion in zero-coupon convertible notes issued during fiscal 2025, plus $597.3 million in free cash flow. Revenue came in at $1.28 billion (down YoY), and the company's Bitcoin holdings were valued at $368.4 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of Q3 after a $151 million writedown.

Why It Matters: GameStop now has more cash than its entire market cap warrants under traditional retail metrics — and CEO Ryan Cohen hasn't said a word about what he plans to do with it. The rumor mill is pointing at eBay, whose $39.9 billion market cap would make it an ambitious but theoretically achievable target. For investors, the Bitcoin position is a double-edged sword: it adds earnings volatility without clear strategic rationale. The real story is whether Cohen deploys that $9 billion war chest into a transformative acquisition or continues letting it sit.

What to Watch: Cohen's silence on M&A is louder than any press release. Any hint of an eBay bid — or any large acquisition target — would move GME shares dramatically. Bitcoin volatility continues to cloud the earnings picture quarter to quarter.

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Oil Drops Below $100 as the Diplomacy Trade Takes Hold

The News: Brent crude fell 5% to around $99 per barrel, slipping below the psychologically critical $100 level for the first time in nearly two weeks. WTI dropped 5.1% to roughly $87.63. The sell-off was driven by the Trump administration's 15-point peace proposal and Pakistan's offer to host direct talks, which traders interpreted as the most credible de-escalation signal since the war began. The move extended Tuesday's decline after Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Why It Matters: For consumers, oil below $100 could eventually translate to lower gas prices — which currently average around $4 per gallon nationally. For investors, the energy trade is bifurcating: peace optimism is crushing crude longs, while energy companies that hedged production at higher prices look increasingly smart. The catch is that Iran has rejected the plan, the 5-day strike pause expires Friday, and Hormuz remains effectively closed. Oil below $100 might be a head-fake if diplomacy stalls.

What to Watch: The Islamabad summit (potentially Thursday) is the week's pivotal catalyst for oil. If talks materialize, Brent could test $90. If they collapse and strikes resume, $110+ is back on the table quickly. Also watch U.S. crude inventory data Wednesday for supply signals.

Source: cnbc.com

5. Braze Surges 19% After Blowout Revenue

The News: Braze, the customer engagement platform, saw its stock jump roughly 19% after reporting Q4 revenue of $205.2 million — beating estimates of $198.2 million — with 27.9% year-over-year growth that accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter. Quarterly bookings surged over 50% YoY, enterprise customers (spending $500K+) grew 34.8%, and remaining performance obligations crossed $1 billion for the first time. The EPS miss of $0.10 vs. $0.14 expected was largely overlooked.

Why It Matters: In a market that has punished software stocks all month — AWS's new AI tools spooked the sector just yesterday — Braze's results are a reminder that execution still gets rewarded. For investors, the accelerating revenue growth (19.6% → 23.8% → 25.5% → 27.9% over four quarters) and the 50%+ bookings growth are exactly the metrics that warrant higher multiples. The stock is still down 34% YTD, suggesting Wall Street had gotten too bearish on software growth in the war-driven macro.

What to Watch: Six analysts updated price targets between $30-$40, implying significant upside from the current ~$22 level. Watch whether the Braze beat triggers a broader rethink of software valuations, or if it remains an isolated winner.

Source: stockstory.org

1. Iran Rejects the Peace Plan and Drops Its Own Five Demands

The News: Iran formally rejected the U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal, with state media calling it "highly ambitious and unrealistic." Tehran then countered with its own five conditions: a halt to all U.S. and Israeli aggression and assassinations, mechanisms to guarantee the war won't restart, payment of war reparations, an end to strikes on Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Lebanon, and international recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned Washington not to "jeopardize American soldiers for Netanyahu's fantasies."

Why It Matters: Iran's counter-demands are a negotiating position, not a final answer — but the gap between the two sides is enormous. The U.S. wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear program and disarm its proxies. Iran wants reparations and Hormuz sovereignty. For global markets, the takeaway is that a quick resolution remains unlikely. The real question is whether back-channel talks continue even as both sides posture publicly. The NYT headline — "Tehran Dismisses Offer but Signals Openness to Talks" — captures the ambiguity perfectly.

What to Watch: The Islamabad summit is now the key event. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are pushing hard to get both sides in a room by Thursday. If Iran sends a delegation — even a low-level one — markets will interpret it as progress. If the 5-day strike pause expires with no talks, the escalation ladder has a lot of rungs left.

Source: aljazeera.com

2. Gold Snaps Its Brutal Losing Streak

The News: Gold surged approximately 1.9% to $4,555 per ounce on Wednesday, extending its recovery after snapping a nine-session losing streak on Tuesday. The metal has now bounced more than $450 from Monday's capitulation low of $4,100, which coincided almost perfectly with the 200-day moving average. Silver reclaimed $70, surging 2.9% to $73.20 after its own flash crash to $61.45 earlier in the week.

Why It Matters: Gold's worst selloff since 1983 spooked a lot of investors, but the $4,100 level holding is technically significant — it suggests the structural bull case (central bank buying, dollar diversification, geopolitical hedging) hasn't broken. For investors, the key question is whether this is a dead cat bounce or a genuine reversal. The RSI is recovering from deeply oversold territory but remains below 50, which means the rally is still early-stage. Major institutions including Goldman ($5,600 target), UBS ($5,400), and Wells Fargo ($6,100-$6,300) haven't changed their year-end forecasts.

What to Watch: Wednesday's U.S. import/export price data will show how the oil shock is feeding through to traded goods inflation. A hot reading reinforces the hawkish Fed narrative and could cap gold's recovery. The $4,613 Bollinger mid-band is the next resistance level to clear.

Source: financemagnates.com

3. Oil Diplomacy Reshapes the Global Tape

The News: Brent crude dropped below $100 per barrel for the first time since early March, falling 5% on Wednesday as the Trump administration's peace proposal and Pakistan's mediation offer gave markets the first credible de-escalation scenario since the conflict began. The sell-off rippled across global markets: Asian equities rallied, European natural gas futures eased, and the dollar weakened as traders unwound war-premium positions. Meanwhile, the U.S. announced plans to deploy 5,000 additional Marines and thousands of sailors to the region — framed as "maximum flexibility" rather than escalation.

Why It Matters: For the global economy, oil below $100 is a pressure release valve. The Dallas Fed's own model estimates that each quarter Hormuz remains closed knocks 2.9% off U.S. GDP. If crude can sustainably break below $95, recession probabilities start to recede. But the troop deployment is a reminder that the U.S. is simultaneously preparing for both peace and more war. For global consumers, energy prices remain 50% above where they started the year, and the relief at the pump won't arrive overnight even if Brent stays below $100.

What to Watch: OPEC+ is meeting informally this week to discuss whether to adjust production targets in light of the peace talks. If Saudi Arabia signals willingness to ramp output, oil could fall further. If talks fail, $110+ is the base case by next week.

Source: barrons.com

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