Good Afternoon. Wall Street ended March with a bang — the S&P 500 surged over 2.5% on reports Trump is willing to end the Iran war even without a fully reopened Strait of Hormuz. Oil dipped, bonds rallied, and tech led the charge. But underneath the euphoria, today's JOLTS data showed hiring just hit its lowest level since April 2020.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. McCormick and Unilever Cook Up a $65.8 Billion Food Empire

The News: McCormick & Company and Unilever announced they've agreed to combine Unilever's entire Foods business (think Hellmann's, Knorr, and Ben & Jerry's) with McCormick to create what they're calling a "global flavour powerhouse." The deal values the new entity at roughly $65.8 billion, with Unilever and its shareholders owning 65% of the combined company. Unilever will kick in approximately $15.7 billion in cash upfront, with the rest paid in McCormick shares.

Why It Matters: This is the biggest food industry deal in years and turns McCormick from a spice company into a diversified global food giant overnight. For investors, the deal lets Unilever shed its slower-growth food arm and become a "pureplay" household products company — a move activist investors have pushed for. For consumers, the question is whether consolidation leads to higher prices at the grocery store. McCormick shares initially surged 3% before pulling back 5.7% on concerns about leverage and integration risk.

What to Watch: Regulatory approvals across the U.S. and EU, and whether Unilever's European works council follows through on threatened union action to protect workers.

Source: yahoo.com

2. JOLTS Report Shows Hiring Dropped to Its Lowest Level Since April 2020

The News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings were little changed at 6.9 million in February, but hires plunged by 498,000 to just 4.8 million — the lowest hiring rate (3.1%) since the pandemic shut the economy down in April 2020. The biggest drop came in accommodation and food services, where openings fell 211,000. Layoffs remained unchanged at 1.7 million and quits held steady at 3.0 million.

Why It Matters: The headline "6.9 million openings" sounds healthy, but the hiring number tells a different story. Companies are posting jobs but not filling them — a classic sign of employer hesitation. For job seekers, this is the worst hiring environment in six years. For the Fed, it's a mixed signal: the labor market isn't crashing, but it's not growing either. The Iran war's uncertainty is freezing corporate decision-making.

What to Watch: Friday's March jobs report will be the real tell. If payrolls disappoint alongside this weak JOLTS data, recession chatter will get louder fast.

Source: bls.gov

3. Consumer Confidence Inches Up

The News: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.8 points to 91.8 in March, technically a gain. The Present Situation Index rose 4.6 points to 123.3, while the Expectations Index dropped 1.7 points to 70.9. The kicker: 12-month inflation expectations surged to their highest level since August 2025, with consumers citing oil prices and the Iran war as their top concerns.

Why It Matters: The headline improvement is misleading. Consumers are saying "things are okay right now" while simultaneously bracing for prices to get much worse. For the Fed, rising inflation expectations are a red flag — if people expect prices to rise, they tend to act in ways that make prices rise (demanding higher wages, buying ahead of anticipated increases). For investors, this is the kind of data that keeps rate cuts off the table.

What to Watch: Fed Chair Powell said Monday he views inflation as "manageable" and doesn't see a need for immediate rate hikes. The market is betting he can thread this needle — but consumer expectations say the public isn't so sure.

Source: conference-board.org

4. Stocks Surge as Trump Signals He's Willing to End the Iran War

The News: The S&P 500 jumped 2.66% and the Dow gained over 1,000 points on Tuesday after reports that President Trump told aides he's willing to end the conflict in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The Nasdaq led with a 3.15% gain. Oil fell, with Brent crude dropping 2.7% to around $104.51 and WTI slipping to $102.07. Iran's president was also reportedly amenable to ceasing hostilities.

Why It Matters: This is the biggest single-day rally since the war began. The market's message is clear: even a messy end to the war is better than no end at all. For investors, the question is whether this rally has legs or is another head-fake in a month full of them. The S&P 500 is still down over 5% in March and was flirting with correction territory yesterday. For the economy, oil at $102 is still painful — but it's a lot less painful than $113.

What to Watch: Trump's April 6 deadline to resume attacks on Iran's energy grid is the next catalyst. If talks produce a framework before then, markets could run. If they collapse, expect oil to sprint back toward $120.

Source: wsj.com

5. Nike Reports After the Bell and Wall Street Is Bracing for a 46% Earnings Drop

The News: Nike is set to report Q3 FY2026 earnings after Tuesday's close. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.29, a 46.3% year-over-year decline, on essentially flat revenue. CEO Elliott Hill, about 18 months into his turnaround effort, has been mending relationships with wholesale partners and accelerating product development through the company's new "Express Lane" initiative, designed to get styles to market faster.

Why It Matters: Nike's turnaround is real but slow — and the timing couldn't be worse. The company is restructuring into a global trade war and now a Middle East conflict that's pushing up shipping costs and threatening consumer spending. For investors, the bar is low enough that a beat is possible, but guidance matters more than the quarter. For consumers, Nike's pricing power is being tested by both macro headwinds and surging competition from brands like On Running and Hoka.

What to Watch: The "Express Lane" initiative and any mention of how the Iran war is hitting supply chains and consumer sentiment. Options markets are pricing in a big move.

Source: cnbc.com

1. Iran Drone Hits a Kuwaiti Oil Tanker at Dubai Port

The News: An Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti very large crude carrier (VLCC) Al Salmi while it was anchored at Dubai Port early Tuesday morning. The attack caused a fire on the starboard side and damage to the hull, but all 24 crew members were secured with no injuries. Dubai authorities contained the blaze and confirmed no oil leakage. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation condemned the strike and said it was "directly attacked by Iranian forces."

Why It Matters: Iran has been hitting military and energy targets for weeks, but striking a neutral country's civilian oil tanker at a major commercial port is a significant escalation. Dubai is the Gulf's financial hub — this isn't just an energy story anymore, it's a trade and logistics story. For investors, attacks on commercial shipping in port suggest Iran's drone campaign is getting more indiscriminate. For global trade, the insurance costs of moving oil through the Gulf just went up again.

What to Watch: Kuwait's diplomatic response and whether the UAE retaliates directly. Both countries have tried to stay neutral in the conflict, but Iran is making that harder by the day.

Source: aljazeera.com

2. Brent Crude Is on Track for Its Largest Monthly Gain Since the Gulf War

The News: Despite Tuesday's decline, Brent crude has surged approximately 50% in March, positioning it for the largest monthly percentage gain since the Gulf War of 1990. WTI crude has risen 51%, its biggest monthly jump since May 2019. Brent touched highs above $113 earlier this week before pulling back to around $104 on ceasefire hopes. The Middle East Dubai benchmark briefly hit a record $169.75 during the month.

Why It Matters: A 50% monthly move in oil doesn't just affect gas prices — it reprices everything. Shipping costs, food production, airline tickets, chemicals, plastics. The global economy is absorbing a once-in-a-generation energy shock in real time. For investors, the Brent rally has been a massive wealth transfer from consumers to energy producers, commodity traders, and defense stocks. For central banks worldwide, this is the inflation nightmare they feared.

What to Watch: Whether the G7's pledge to take "all necessary measures" to protect energy market stability translates into coordinated strategic reserve releases or remains empty rhetoric.

Source: energynews.oedigital.com

3. Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon Nationally

The News: The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.018 on Monday, according to AAA — the first time it's crossed the $4 mark since August 2022. Prices are up $1.00 in just the last month, driven almost entirely by the Iran war's impact on global crude supply. The EU's energy chief has urged member nations to conserve fuel in anticipation of a "potentially extended disruption" in global energy markets.

Why It Matters: Four-dollar gas is a psychological threshold. It changes consumer behavior — people drive less, delay road trips, and cut discretionary spending. For the economy, every 10-cent increase in gas prices pulls roughly $14 billion per year out of consumer wallets. For the Fed, it's a double bind: gas price inflation is transitory in theory but very real at the pump today.

What to Watch: Whether prices keep climbing toward the all-time record of $5.02 set in June 2022. Analysts say $4.50 is likely if Hormuz stays partially closed through April.

Source: gasprices.aaa.com

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