Good Afternoon & Happy St. Patrick's Day. Stocks are grinding higher for a second straight day, but the mood is more "cautious optimism" than champagne pop. Delta just told Wall Street that Americans are booking flights like the war doesn't exist, Brent crude punched back above $103 after Iran hit another Gulf energy target, and the Fed kicked off a two-day meeting everyone expects to end with a shrug. Oh, and Trump's own counterterrorism chief quit over the Iran war.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Delta and American Airlines Raise Guidance

The News: Delta Air Lines raised its Q1 revenue growth forecast to 7%–9% year-over-year, up from a previous 5%–7% range, putting total Q1 revenue at roughly $15 billion to $15.3 billion — well above the $14.74 billion FactSet consensus. American Airlines followed with a similar bump. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC the airline logged eight of its ten highest-ever single sales days this quarter, with revenues and bookings up 25% year-over-year despite the conflict.

Why It Matters: Airlines are absorbing an estimated $400 million fuel cost increase per carrier from the Iran-driven oil spike — and still posting better numbers. For investors, it signals that premium and corporate travel demand is strong enough to act as a pricing buffer, even in a $100+ oil world. Budget carriers, however, may not be so lucky — Bastian himself noted that fuel pain hits them harder.

What to Watch: The rest of airline season at the JPM Industrials Conference this week. If United and Southwest echo the same demand signals, the sector could rerate higher despite the energy headwinds.

Source: CNBC

2. Trump's Counterterrorism Chief Resigns Over Iran — Calls War "Instigated by Israel"

The News: Joe Kent, Trump's own appointee as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned on Tuesday in a blistering public letter. "Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation," Kent wrote on X, adding that the war was "instigated due to pressure from Israel and its influential American lobby." Trump called Kent's departure a "good thing" and labeled him "very weak on security."

Why It Matters: This is the first high-profile defection from within Trump's national security apparatus over the Iran conflict, and it breaks the bipartisan consensus the administration had been building. For markets, internal dissent raises the question of whether public support for the war — and by extension, the oil disruption it's causing — has a political shelf life.

What to Watch: Whether other officials follow Kent's lead. Congressional Republicans have so far held the line, but a crack in the intelligence community could embolden critics on both sides of the aisle.

Source: CNN

3. Tim Cook Says He's Not Going Anywhere

The News: On Apple's 50th anniversary, CEO Tim Cook went on ABC's "Good Morning America" to squash retirement rumors that had been circulating since a 2021 New York Times interview where he said he'd "probably not" be at the company in ten years. "I never said that — that's just a rumor circulating," Cook said. "I can't envision life without Apple." AAPL shares edged higher on the news.

Why It Matters: Succession risk is real at a $3+ trillion company, and Cook's comments remove a lingering overhang. For investors, CEO stability matters — especially as Apple navigates the tricky rollout of Apple Intelligence and faces questions about whether its AI strategy can compete with the pace of OpenAI and Google.

What to Watch: Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in June, where the next generation of Apple Intelligence will be previewed. Cook staying means the current strategy stays, too.

Source: AppleInsider

4. Diesel Just Hit $5 a Gallon and It's About to Make Everything More Expensive

The News: The national average price of diesel fuel crossed $5.00 per gallon this week for the first time since 2022, according to AAA data. That's up 36.7% from just one month ago. West Coast prices are even worse, averaging $5.55. The surge is directly tied to the Iran conflict and the disruption to global crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why It Matters: Diesel is the invisible tax on everything. It powers the trucks that deliver your groceries, the trains that haul grain, and the ships that carry imports. For consumers, this means the "inflation is cooling" narrative is about to collide with the "filling up the truck costs a fortune" reality. For investors, watch margins at retailers, food companies, and logistics firms — this is a direct earnings headwind.

What to Watch: Wednesday's Fed statement for any acknowledgment of energy-driven inflation risk, and upcoming CPI prints that will start capturing these fuel price increases.

Source: Forbes

5. The Fed Starts Its Two-Day Meeting

The News: The Federal Reserve kicked off its March 17–18 FOMC meeting on Tuesday, with the rate decision and updated dot plot due Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the current 3.5%–3.75% range, with futures pricing in virtually no chance of a cut. Pending home sales, released today, showed a modest 1.8% monthly increase for February, suggesting housing is stabilizing but far from booming.

Why It Matters: The decision itself is a foregone conclusion — it's the dot plot and Powell's press conference that matter. With oil above $100 and diesel at $5, the Fed faces a tricky balancing act: acknowledge the energy-driven inflation risk without spooking a market that's already jittery. For investors, the tone of Powell's remarks on "transitory" energy inflation versus "persistent" supply shocks will be the headline.

What to Watch: The updated dot plot — specifically whether any dots shift toward fewer cuts in 2026. Also watch the press conference for any comment on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has already been tapped for 172 million barrels.

Source: Federal Reserve

1. Israel Says It Killed Iran's "De Facto Leader" Ali Larijani in Overnight Strike

The News: The Israeli Defense Forces announced Tuesday that Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a close representative of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, was killed in a "precise" Israeli Air Force strike near Tehran. Basij paramilitary commander Gholamreza Soleimani was also killed. The IDF described Larijani as the "de facto leader" of the Iranian regime.

Why It Matters: These are the highest-profile assassinations since Khamenei himself was targeted on day one of the war. Removing Larijani — the man running Iran's security apparatus — creates a leadership vacuum that could either accelerate Iran's willingness to negotiate or trigger an escalatory response. For oil markets, the uncertainty premium just got a fresh injection.

What to Watch: Iran's next move. If retaliation targets energy infrastructure (again), expect oil to spike further. If the regime goes quiet, it may signal the decapitation strategy is working.

Source: Wall Street Journal

2. Iran Hits a UAE Gas Field and Iraq's Oil Infrastructure — the Energy War Keeps Expanding

The News: A large gas field in the United Arab Emirates was set ablaze by an Iranian drone strike on Tuesday, while a vital Iraqi oil port was halted again after Iranian attacks. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted nearly 100 Iranian drones in 24 hours — the largest single-day wave yet. Kuwait and Qatar also reported fresh attacks. Brent crude surged above $103, up roughly 3% on the day.

Why It Matters: Iran is widening its target list beyond the Strait of Hormuz, hitting energy infrastructure in countries that host U.S. military bases. This "spread the pain" strategy is designed to fracture the Gulf coalition supporting the U.S. and Israel. For energy markets, every new target means another potential supply disruption — and the war is only three weeks old.

What to Watch: Whether the UAE, Kuwait, or Qatar begin to publicly pressure Washington for a ceasefire. The economic toll on Gulf states is mounting fast, and political patience has limits.

Source: Bloomberg

3. Trump Delays China Trip by a Month — Iran War Takes Priority Over Trade Reset

The News: President Trump announced Tuesday that his planned visit to China, originally scheduled for late March, will be pushed back five to six weeks. "I believe it's crucial for me to be here," Trump said during a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin. Treasury Secretary Bessent, speaking from Paris where he was meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, said the delay was purely logistical and not a signal of deteriorating trade relations.

Why It Matters: The China trip was supposed to be the centerpiece of a "trade reset" that could ease some of the tariff tension weighing on global markets. Delaying it extends that uncertainty. For investors, it means the combination of an active Middle East war AND unresolved trade friction with China will persist through at least late April — a double headwind for risk assets.

What to Watch: Bessent's trade talks in Paris this week with China's He Lifeng. If those produce any framework agreement, it could offset some of the negative signal from the postponed summit.

Source: Reuters

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