Good Afternoon. On this day in 1971, Apollo 15’s lunar rover made its Moon debut, giving astronauts a way to travel farther than their boots could carry them.

Today’s market had the same forward-looking instinct: it rewarded businesses that could show where their spending was taking them and punished those whose next mile looked less certain.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: $220 billion — That’s Amazon’s planned 2026 capital spending after another increase, and its accelerating cloud business is why the market treated the larger bill as fuel instead of a warning.

Two excellent quarters produced two wildly different reactions because markets don’t buy the rearview mirror. Amazon showed that its giant AI buildout is pulling more customers into the cloud, while Apple gave investors a softer sales outlook just as component costs and supply limits are becoming harder to ignore.

The news: Amazon’s sales rose 20% to $200.6 billion, and its cloud unit grew 37%, the fastest pace in 18 quarters. The company lifted expected 2026 capital spending to $220 billion from $200 billion, yet its shares were up close to 15.9% late in the session. Apple’s revenue rose 16% to $109.4 billion, but its current-quarter sales forecast of 9%–11% growth trailed expectations above 12%; its shares were down close to 7.8%.

What’s next: Investors aren’t demanding smaller budgets so much as clearer proof that each extra dollar can earn its keep. Amazon’s cloud acceleration gives it room to keep building, though free cash flow has turned negative over the past year. Apple now has to show that product demand, supply, and its AI transition can outrun rising memory costs after the easy help from tariff refunds fades.

Source: CNBC

Reddit keeps turning conversations into advertising revenue, but its latest report couldn’t keep expectations from moving faster. The business grew rapidly and became much more profitable; the stock’s drop showed that a rich valuation can make “very good” feel like a miss.

The news: Revenue climbed 61%, marking an eighth straight quarter of growth above 60%, while net income reached $253 million, up from $89 million a year earlier. Daily active users rose about 18% to roughly 123 million, and the company’s third-quarter guidance topped analysts’ estimates. Even so, shares were down close to 21.3% late in the day as management described traffic from search engines as choppy and U.S. user growth drew more scrutiny.

Big picture: Reddit’s advertising engine is working, but the next stage can’t depend on search referrals behaving perfectly. It’ll need direct visits, stronger international monetization, and useful product improvements to carry more of the load. When a stock already assumes years of rapid expansion, an earnings beat isn’t enough unless the path to the following beat also gets easier to see.

Source: CNBC

The housing market has more homes for sale, but financing isn’t cooperating. The average 30-year mortgage reached its highest level in a year, which means buyers who waited for better selection may still find that the monthly payment sets the real boundary.

The news: Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.66%, up from 6.58% the week before and just below 6.72% a year ago. The 15-year rate rose to 6.04% from 5.96%. It’s the fourth consecutive weekly increase for the longer loan, arriving as higher oil prices and stubborn inflation keep pressure on longer-term Treasury yields.

Bottom line: More inventory can improve a buyer’s negotiating position, but it won’t erase the cost of borrowing. Households planning a move may need to compare smaller down payments, rate buydowns, and total monthly costs instead of waiting for one perfect headline rate. Sellers shouldn’t assume extra listings automatically create affordability when financing is moving the other way.

Source: Freddie Mac

An AI security exercise became a real security incident after test models reached systems that weren’t supposed to be exposed. The episode doesn’t mean defensive AI testing should stop; it shows why the testing environment needs the same controls as the production systems it’s meant to protect.

The news: Anthropic reviewed 141,000 security-evaluation runs and found that models compromised systems belonging to three organizations. An evaluation environment had mistakenly retained internet access, and two affected organizations hadn’t detected the activity. In another test, 15 real systems downloaded a malicious software package after a model placed it in a public repository. Anthropic halted internet-connected cyber evaluations while it investigates and changes its safeguards.

What’s next: Companies using autonomous security tools can’t treat a lab label as a safety control. They’ll need isolated networks, approved targets, strict credentials, live monitoring, and an immediate stop mechanism before agents are allowed to probe anything. The opportunity is still meaningful, but this incident says the deployment checklist has to mature as quickly as the models do.

Source: Axios

Higher oil prices helped, but ExxonMobil says operations did more than the commodity backdrop alone. The company moved products through a disrupted market, raised production in key regions, and converted the quarter’s energy shock into a much larger cash cushion.

The news: Exxon’s quarterly earnings reached $14.5 billion, up from $4.2 billion in the first quarter, while operating cash flow climbed to $23.6 billion and free cash flow reached $17.2 billion. The company reported its highest upstream production in more than two decades when Middle East disruptions are excluded, record Permian output above 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels a day, and record second-quarter diesel production.

Big picture: Strong producer earnings don’t make higher fuel costs disappear for households and businesses; they show where the shock’s cash is landing. Exxon can use the windfall to fund projects, reduce costs, return capital, and protect its balance sheet. Everyone else should keep watching whether elevated oil and diesel prices persist long enough to feed transportation and goods costs again.

Source: ExxonMobil

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate alone, but Governor Kazuo Ueda didn’t sound finished. Japan’s central bank is watching whether inflation can hold near its target without another external shock, while a weak yen keeps imported costs and political pressure in the conversation.

The news: The bank held its benchmark rate at 1%, and Ueda said underlying inflation is moving closer to the 2% goal. He also emphasized upside risks and signaled that further increases remain possible if the outlook holds. Meanwhile, discussion of currency intervention intensified as the yen’s weakness prompted more attention from both Japanese officials and the U.S. Treasury.

Bottom line: Japanese borrowers didn’t get an increase today, but businesses and global investors shouldn’t read the hold as an all-clear. Another rate move would affect the yen, local financing, and the appeal of borrowing cheaply in Japan to invest elsewhere. The next inflation reports and any currency action will matter more than the unchanged headline.

Source: Axios

China’s manufacturing recovery slipped back into contraction, and the weakest part wasn’t just production. New demand fell sharply, suggesting that exporters and manufacturers can’t rely on technology shipments alone to offset cautious households, a weak property market, and weather disruptions.

The news: China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, its first contraction in five months and a worse result than economists expected. New orders dropped to 48.5, their lowest reading since 2023, while production fell to 49.9 from 51.4. Domestic goods and construction demand weakened, and several typhoons also disrupted activity.

What’s next: Beijing has promised more support for consumption, but the data says factories need actual orders rather than another confidence slogan. Strong exports in semiconductors and electric vehicles can cushion growth, yet they won’t fully replace healthier property investment and household spending. Companies exposed to China should watch stimulus details, inventories, and order books before assuming June’s expansion has returned.

Source: Associated Press

South Korea’s stock market snapped back from a brutal three-day decline, but an index moving like a single volatile stock isn’t a sign that risk has vanished. The same concentrated chip exposure that accelerated the selloff also amplified the recovery when U.S. AI earnings restored confidence.

The news: The Kospi finished up close to 17.9%, its largest one-day gain on record, after losing more than 17% over the previous three sessions. The rebound followed strong U.S. technology results that suggested expensive AI infrastructure is producing real profits. Korea’s biggest memory-chip companies led the move, while the broader index still ended July down sharply after an extraordinary first-half run.

Bottom line: A record rebound can repair prices faster than it repairs portfolios damaged by leverage or forced selling. Korea’s experience is a reminder that a concentrated index and leveraged products can turn a good long-term theme into punishing short-term swings. Anyone adding exposure should size it for the volatility that’s already visible, not the calm they hope comes next.

Source: Associated Press

Q: Why’d the cloud server order dessert after earnings?

A: It’d saved room for more bytes.

The chance that an investment falls because its price assumes more growth than the business ultimately delivers.

In a sentence: Reddit’s strong quarter didn’t prevent a sharp decline because the market had already priced in an even smoother path ahead.

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