Good Afternoon. If your weekend involved snow shovels, canceled flights, or an impulse Costco run, you’re not alone. Fern may take a bite out of Q1 growth before it shows up as a Q2 rebound. Markets are hedging too: gold blew past $5,000 as the dollar fell. While TikTok’s transition proved confidence is expensive and trust is priceless. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Things Just Keep Going Up

The News: Markets started the week with a risk-on face and a risk-off wallet: the Dow rose ~0.7%, the S&P 500 gained ~0.5%, and the Nasdaq added ~0.5%, while gold futures surged ~2% to settle above $5,000 (around $5,079.70)—its first close over that threshold. Silver jumped to fresh records (above ~$115/oz intraday) in one of its biggest one-day moves in years, and miners like Newmont and Freeport caught the wave. The rally had plenty of kindling: Trump’s weekend threat of 100% tariffs on Canada plus renewed shutdown chatter, a weaker dollar, and a stronger yen as Tokyo and Washington signaled readiness to support Japan’s currency.

Why It Matters: When investors pay up for insurance, it often foreshadows more volatility in rates, currencies, and prices (which filters into borrowing costs and imported goods over time). For investors, the message is starker: the market can rally and still hedge aggressively when policy risk feels headline-driven. The yen move is also a tell; if currency intervention becomes a theme, dollar swings can get sharper, and that tends to keep commodities up even when equities look calm.

What to Watch: Watch follow-through on two fronts: whether the Canada tariff threat turns into actual policy steps, and whether dollar/yen dynamics intensify if intervention talk becomes action.When gold’s hitting new highs, markets are telling you they’re not done worrying.
Source: wsj.com

2. Winter Storm Fern Damage Still Being Counted

The News: Bank of America estimates Winter Storm Fern could shave 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points off Q1 2026 GDP (q/q SAAR), calling the hit largely temporary after widespread shutdowns across the East. AccuWeather pegs total damage and economic losses at $105B–$115B. The disruption has been real: about 19,450 flights were canceled from Saturday through early Monday, with ~11,000 canceled Sunday alone—one of the worst single-day totals since early pandemic travel chaos—while ~820,000 customers lost power across multiple states.

Why It Matters: For households, the storm hit the economy the unglamorous way: missed shifts, delayed paychecks, surprise repair bills, and extra travel costs. For markets, this is the classic “timing” shock—spending and production get postponed more than destroyed, so weak Q1 news can set up a Q2 bounce. The split matters by sector: airlines, logistics, and discretionary retailers take the first punch, while “stock-up” names (warehouse clubs and home-improvement) can see a near-term lift as people buy essentials, generators, and repair supplies.

What to Watch: Over the next two weeks to see how much activity was delayed versus lost. Also watch power restoration and freight normalization, since supply-chain hiccups can linger after the snow melts. The good news: the GDP math can recover quickly. Your back after shoveling all that snow, may take a bit longer.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

3. Gold Breaks $5,000

The News: Commodities just logged their best week since early 2022, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 5.3% for the week ending Jan. 24, 2026 and up more than 9% year-to-date, according to Reuters. The move was broad: gold topped $5,000 and hit a record $5,110.50/oz on Jan. 26, while silver traded around $108/oz after breaking $100. Energy joined the party too—U.S. natural gas spiked ~70% in a week, its biggest weekly jump since 1990, as severe winter weather tightened the near-term balance.

Why It Matters: For consumers, this is the part where “macro” shows up in real life: higher energy inputs can filter into heating bills, shipping costs, and eventually everyday prices, even if the immediate shock is weather-driven. For investors, the metals surge continues to read like a loud vote for hedges—geopolitical risk plus debt and policy credibility concerns are pushing money into hard assets, not just stocks. Reuters also points to structural demand: central banks have been big buyers, and strategists are openly floating $6,000 gold scenarios if confidence in sovereign debt keeps fraying.

What to Watch: The Fed meeting this week and the U.S. dollar’s direction, a softer dollar has been rocket fuel for metals, and any shift in rate expectations can change the slope fast. On energy, watch how long Winter Storm Fern keeps demand elevated and whether supply responds as temperatures normalize.
Source: interactivebrokers.com

4. TikTok’s Oracle Era Starts

The News: Days after a consortium led by Oracle finalized its $14B takeover of TikTok’s U.S. operations, disgruntled users are decamping to rival app UpScrolled, citing privacy changes, outages, and moderation concerns. The new entity, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, was formed on Jan. 22, 2026, with Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each holding 15%, while ByteDance keeps a 19.9% minority stake. A revised privacy policy expanded data collection to include precise location data and interactions with AI tools. Technical hiccups followed: 36,000+ outage reports hit DownDetector over login failures and stale feeds, blamed on a U.S. data-center power issue.

Why It Matters: National-security concerns may be addressed, but privacy and product stability feel worse—prompting a rare, fast-moving platform migration. For creators and advertisers, churn matters: even a short-lived exodus can dent engagement metrics and ad pricing during a sensitive transition. As alternative platforms spike (UpScrolled briefly cracked the top 10 social apps), switching costs for attention look lower than assumed.

What to Watch: Watch whether TikTok rolls back or clarifies data-collection language and stabilizes service in the next two weeks as retention hinges on it. Also watch regulatory posture around algorithmic influence; critics are questioning how governance changes affect moderation and speech. Platform trust is hard to win and easy to lose and users may scroll with their hands but they vote with their feet.
Source: newsweek.com

5. iOS New Vibe Coding App Boom

The News: New iOS App Store releases jumped 60% YoY in December 2025, with trailing 12-month growth hitting 24%, according to Sensor Tower and Wells Fargo data analyzed by Andreessen Horowitz, an inflection they tie to AI “agentic coding” (aka “vibe coding”), where natural-language prompts turn into working apps. The tooling is getting friendlier fast: Anthropic rolled out Claude Cowork on Jan. 12, 2026, pushing AI agents toward non-technical users, while Replit launched “Mobile Apps on Replit” on Jan. 15, 2026, letting people build and publish iOS apps via conversation.

Why It Matters: For consumers, this means more niche, weirdly useful apps plus a higher chance of spammy clones and half-baked products flooding search results. For businesses, the economics of software just changed: prototypes that used to take weeks can now appear in days, shifting the moat from “can you build it?” to “can you distribute, secure, and maintain it?” Security is the obvious tax here, AI-generated code can ship vulnerabilities at scale, and App Store review isn’t a substitute for a security team.

What to Watch: Whether this becomes a quality renaissance or a quantity avalanche. Key tells: rising App Store takedowns, security incidents tied to “vibe-coded” apps, and whether Apple tightens review requirements as submissions surge. Also watch incumbents, if app creation gets cheap, customer acquisition gets expensive. The new bottleneck isn’t code. It’s trust.
Source: a16z.news

1. China’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Hits Sell

The News: China’s sovereign wealth fund Central Huijin Investment sold an estimated $67.5B across 14 ETFs over six trading sessions through Jan. 22, 2026, signaling a shift from market backstop to rally cooler, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. The selling helped drive a record $49.2B weekly outflow from China equity funds and pushed global equity funds to their largest outflow on record: $43.2B for the week to Jan. 22, based on EPFR data cited by Bank of America Global Research and Reuters. Even so, indexes held up: Reuters noted the CSI 300 rose about 1.8% over the past month, while China’s chip-heavy STAR 50 gained 16%.

Why It Matters: This is Beijing sending a message: the government still wants orderly markets, not a “mad bull” replay of 2015, especially in frothy pockets like AI and “rocket” themes. For global allocators, the bigger takeaway is behavioral: when the buyer-of-last-resort starts trading both ways, the floor feels less guaranteed, which can widen risk premiums and shorten holding periods. The fact that prices didn’t crater also matters, there’s real demand underneath, but it’s now competing with an active referee.

What to Watch: Watch if regulators keep tightening margin financing and whether state-linked flows resume on the next pullback aka “selling to reload.” China’s backstop didn’t disappear, it just got a trading desk.
Source: thebusinesstimes.com.sg

2. Canada’s “Less U.S., More Options” Tour Continues

The News: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit India in the first week of March 2026 to sign agreements spanning uranium, energy, critical minerals, and emerging tech, as Ottawa accelerates a trade pivot away from U.S. exposure amid tariff threats, Reuters reported Jan. 26, 2026. A centerpiece could be a 10-year uranium supply deal worth ~C$2.8B, with Canada’s energy minister Tim Hodgson traveling to India Jan. 27–30 ahead of the visit. The trip is also expected to kick off formal talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) targeting $50B in bilateral trade by 2030, building on last year’s agreement to restart negotiations.

Why It Matters: For consumers and businesses, this is supply-chain insurance: Canada is trying to lock in long-term demand for its uranium and critical minerals while widening export markets, moves that can translate into more investment and jobs at home, and more predictable input costs for partners. For investors, it’s a clear signal that middle powers are building parallel trade lanes as U.S. tariff risk rises; Carney’s strategy is effectively “diversify the customer base before the customer raises the price.” The politics matter too: the push comes as Trump has floated 100% tariffs on Canada over a potential China-related EV pathway, raising the premium on non-U.S. growth channels.

What to Watch: Watch for specifics during and ahead of the trip and India’s Feb. 1, 2026 Union Budget for signals on energy and critical-minerals demand that could shape the negotiating posture. Trade diversification is easy to talk about but much harder to execute.
Source: reuters.com

3. India Cracks Open the Car Market & Europe Gets a Discount Lane

The News: India is set to cut import tariffs on EU cars from as high as 110% to 40% under a landmark India–EU free trade agreement expected to be announced at the 16th India–EU Summit in New Delhi on Jan. 27, 2026, according to Reuters. The initial cut applies to a limited quota of combustion-engine cars priced above €15,000, and the tariff is slated to fall further to 10% over time; battery EVs are excluded for the first five years. Reuters also reported India proposed slashing duties to 40% immediately for ~200,000 combustion-engine cars annually, a meaningful opening in one of the world’s most protected auto markets.

Why It Matters: This could make imported European models materially cheaper over time (though 40% tariffs are still not exactly “duty-free”), and it may push domestic brands to compete harder on features and quality. For automakers and investors, this is a strategic foothold in a market of roughly 4.4M cars a year that’s projected to reach ~6M by 2030 and where EU brands currently hold <4% share because tariffs have been a brick wall. The EV carve-out is the tell: India wants more competition, but not at the expense of its homegrown EV buildout.

What to Watch: Watch the fine print on quotas, timelines, and local-content expectations when the agreement is unveiled on Jan. 27 and whether India keeps EVs fenced off for the full five years. Also watch which OEMs commit to new India manufacturing versus using imports to “test the waters” (Volkswagen/Skoda and Renault are already positioning for more India growth). India is starting to lower the drawbridge just not for everyone at once and certainly not the U.S.
Source: reuters.com

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