Good Afternoon. A thaw in global trade met a chill in consumer finances, as Washington cut surprise deals abroad while foreclosures ticked higher at home. And in the background, Liquified Natural Gas exports keep roaring, one corner of the economy that isn’t feeling the cold. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Slip as Markets Eye Jobs Data and Fed Uncertainty

The News: U.S. equities ended a choppy Friday mixed, with tech stocks recovering early losses while the Dow finished lower after Thursday’s sharp selloff—the worst in a month. Rate expectations cooled: futures now imply only a ~50% chance of a Fed cut next month, down from 67% a week ago and 95% a month earlier, according to CME data. The government shutdown’s end now shifts focus to Thursday’s long-delayed September jobs report. Meanwhile, trade headlines moved commodities: the U.S.–Switzerland tariff cut to 15% strengthened the franc, and planned tariff reductions on Latin American coffee pushed coffee futures lower for a third day.

Why It Matters: Markets are wrestling with two big unknowns: how quickly the Fed will cut, and whether incoming jobs data confirms a cooling labor market. Rate-sensitive sectors and high-valuation tech stocks are especially vulnerable as traders recalibrate expectations. Geopolitical shocks—like a Ukrainian drone strike lifting oil—and global policy swings (U.K. bond and pound selloff) add to cross-asset volatility. With Bitcoin sliding below $100,000 and the VIX back above 20, risk appetite is clearly softening as investors question how durable this year’s rally really is.

What to Watch: Whether the long-awaited September jobs report steadies nerves—or sends traders into full “is this rally over?” mode. Let’s hope its the former.
Source: wsj.com

2. U.S. Foreclosures Jump 20% as Homeowners Struggle With Costs

The News: Foreclosure filings rose nearly 20% in October from a year earlier, with about 37,000 properties entering some stage of default, auction, or repossession, per Attom. Florida led the nation with 1 in every 1,829 homes in foreclosure, followed by South Carolina and Illinois. Rising insurance premiums (up nearly 50% in five years), higher property taxes, and a soft labor market are squeezing budgets, especially for owners who bought when mortgage rates topped 7% and assumed they’d be able to refinance. But with 30-year rates still around 6.24%, monthly savings remain minimal.

Why It Matters: Housing affordability is cracking at the margins, and the stress is concentrated among FHA borrowers and lower- to middle-income households—groups most exposed to job losses and rising living costs. A continued uptick in delinquencies could pressure consumer spending, weaken local housing markets, and complicate the Fed’s path if financial stress broadens. Real-estate investors are already stepping in to buy distressed homes before banks do, reshaping who ends up owning these properties.

What to Watch: Whether further job losses push foreclosure starts even higher—particularly in Florida metros like Tampa and Orlando—just in time for homeowners to realize refinancing won’t magically fix that too-big mortgage payment.
Source: marketwatch.com

3. Trump Plans Food Tariff Cuts to Ease Grocery Bills

The News: President Trump is preparing tariff cuts on groceries, including coffee, bananas, and beef, aiming to blunt voter frustration over high food prices. The move pairs with new trade frameworks with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador, plus broader exemptions previewed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. It comes as Trump openly acknowledges consumers are “paying something” for his tariffs, even as the Supreme Court weighs his authority to impose many of them. The administration is simultaneously striking tariff deals with Switzerland, the EU, Brazil, China, and India to recalibrate trade flows.

Why It Matters: Thanksgiving is just around the corner and you can bet that affordability and the economy are going to be the talk of the table. Cheaper coffee and produce could offer near-term relief for households still battling elevated grocery inflation—one of the most politically sensitive categories heading into 2026. For markets, tariff cuts signal a tactical shift: dialing back duties on consumer staples while trying to preserve leverage in broader trade negotiations. But the pending Supreme Court ruling looms large; if Trump loses authority, the White House may need new legal or legislative tools to push its trade agenda.

What to Watch: Whether these food tariff cuts land before the Court’s ruling and whether shoppers notice the savings before their next grocery run or just wonder why bananas are getting special treatment.
Source: yahoo.finance.com

4. U.S. Natural Gas Demand Hits Records as Winter Arrives Early

The News: The winter heating season opened with record-setting momentum, as LNG feedgas flows hit 18.7 Bcf/day on Nov. 9—up 33% from a year earlier—and total U.S. gas demand is tracking 2.5% above 2024, per S&P Global. Cold snaps helped push December Henry Hub futures up 14.6% since late October to $4.53/MMBtu, while the 12-month strip reached $4.20. October temperatures were 15% colder YoY, and early November followed suit, boosting residential and commercial consumption. Production remains strong at 106.7 Bcf/day, up 3.5% YoY, even with a slight October dip.

Why It Matters: Affordability continues to be on everyone’s minds and the U.S. is entering winter with tightening storage, record LNG pull, and a global market hungry for American supply—especially as new terminals like Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage III ramp up. Higher spot and futures prices will filter into heating bills just as weather volatility increases. Industrial users benefit from ample production, but residential and commercial customers face pricier peak-season fuel as demand outpaces normal seasonal patterns. On the export side, Golden Pass LNG’s imminent startup and UK restrictions on Russian LNG could further shift flows toward U.S. cargoes.

What to Watch: Your thermostat this winter as these events put price pressure on your heating bill and whether extreme winter weather or new LNG capacity pushes feedgas above 20 Bcf/day—a level that would make even seasoned gas traders reach for an extra sweater.
Source: aga.org

5. USPS Posts $9B Loss, Presses Congress for Structural Fixes

The News: The U.S. Postal Service reported a $9 billion net loss for fiscal 2025—slightly better than last year’s $9.5 billion deficit but still highlighting deep structural problems. Annual revenue rose 1.2% to $80.5 billion, lifted by price hikes and growth in USPS Ground Advantage, but controllable losses widened to $2.7 billion from $1.8 billion on weaker package volumes. New Postmaster General David Steiner, who took over in July, said the agency faces a “systemic annual revenue and cost imbalance” after a volatile year that included a rare $144 million Q1 profit tied to election mail.

Why It Matters: USPS remains essential infrastructure for households, retailers, drug distributors, rural communities, and millions of small businesses—yet its finances are stuck in the red due to rising labor costs, pension obligations, and a business model constrained by statute. Without reforms to retiree benefit funding rules, asset diversification, and its congressionally capped debt ceiling, USPS risks further cuts to service standards or continued postage increases. For consumers, that could mean pricier mail, slower deliveries, or both—at a time when package competition from UPS, FedEx, and Amazon keeps intensifying.

What to Watch: Whether Congress actually moves on USPS pension and funding reforms or if lawmakers punt again and leave the Post Office trying to balance billion-dollar losses with Forever stamps. To be fair, the Betty White one is great.
Source: news.usps.com

1. US agrees deal to slash Swiss tariffs to 15% after golden charm offensive

The News: The U.S. and Switzerland reached a deal cutting Trump’s steep 39% tariffs on Swiss exports to 15%, aligning Switzerland with the rate negotiated by EU members. In exchange, Switzerland committed to $200 billion in U.S. investment by 2028, with one-third arriving in 2026. The agreement follows a charm offensive by Swiss industry leaders—complete with luxury gifts like a Rolex gold watch and engraved gold bar—after earlier diplomatic efforts stalled. Swiss tech exports to the U.S. fell 14.2% YoY in Q3 following last August’s tariff hike. Switzerland will also drop tariffs on a quota of U.S. beef, bison, and poultry.

Why It Matters: The rollback eases pressure on Swiss manufacturers and luxury goods exporters while unlocking billions in U.S.-bound investment across pharma, aviation, rail, and gold refining. For U.S. consumers, lower import duties could trim prices on Swiss-made tech, machinery, and high-end goods. Strategically, the deal shows Trump’s trade policy shifting from blanket pressure to targeted bargaining—sweetened by foreign investment and industry outreach. And with U.S. markets watching tariff volatility closely, this agreement may calm nerves as other trade negotiations—from Brazil to China—remain in flux.

What to Watch: How quickly the tariff cuts hit prices and whether Swiss voters approve the deal in a national referendum, or decide they’re not quite ready to trade neutrality for cheaper cheese graters.
Source: bbc.com

2. Citi Says China Business Is Accelerating as Global Clients Return

The News: Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said the bank is growing “rapidly” in China, with a surge in interest from global investors and Chinese companies looking outward. Citi has raised nearly $30 billion for Chinese clients this year and sees strong equity and debt pipelines across Asia, with India alone forecast to generate up to $20 billion in IPOs over the next 12 months. The bank, fresh off beating Q3 revenue estimates across all divisions, is expanding cross-border services despite having exited China’s consumer business and cutting 3,500 tech roles in the country as part of its global restructuring.

Why It Matters: For U.S. companies and investors, Citi’s momentum is a sign that dealmaking and capital flows into China—long chilled by geopolitics—may be quietly thawing. That could mean more cross-border financing, M&A activity, and investment opportunities tied to Chinese firms expanding abroad. For markets, a “flourishing” China business offers a counterweight to U.S. recession worries and sector stress from recent auto-lender failures. And for Citi shareholders, the bank’s push into high-margin corporate and investment banking in Asia may be one of its clearest growth levers heading into 2026.

What to Watch: Whether U.S. and Chinese regulators finally clear Citi’s long-sought securities license, a move that would open the door to fuller investment-banking operations just as Asia’s capital markets regain momentum.
Source: finance.yahoo.com

3. Canadian Boycott of U.S. Travel Deepens as Tariff Tensions Bite

The News: Canadian travel to the U.S. fell for the 10th straight month in October, with air travel down 24% and car crossings off more than 30% from a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada. The drop—driven by a grassroots boycott over Trump’s tariffs and political rhetoric—has helped pull international spending in the U.S. down 3.2%, the U.S. Travel Association says. Canadians historically represent one-quarter of all foreign visitors and spend over $20 billion annually. Domestic Canadian tourism, meanwhile, hit a record C$59 billion from May to August, up 6% as travelers stay closer to home.

Why It Matters: Fewer Canadian visitors mean weaker revenue for U.S. hotels, restaurants, airlines, and border-state retailers—sectors that rely heavily on predictable cross-border travel. Florida’s snowbird economy, in particular, faces a quieter winter as retirees rethink winter homes and long-held travel habits. For Canada, the boycott is effectively redirecting billions into its own tourism industry while signaling how quickly consumer sentiment can shift when trade tensions escalate. As tariffs, political barbs, and stalled negotiations continue, the chill in travel flows could last well into 2026.

What to Watch: Whether upcoming mega-events like the 2026 World Cup can offset the lost Canadian dollars or if the northern boycott keeps Americans wondering where all the maple-leaf license plates went.
Source: bbc.com

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