Good Afternoon. And apologies for all the gloom in today’s and yesterday’s newsletter. If there’s one thing we think an investor should be, besides focused on value and diversified, it’s informed. Let’s get into.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Extend Slide as AI Bubble Fears Spread

The News: U.S. markets fell for the fourth straight session Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow on track to extend multi-day losing streaks as volatility climbed. The Dow is down roughly 4% over three days, pressured by a sharp selloff in both chipmakers—AMD, Marvell, Micron—and old-economy names like Home Depot, which cut its annual outlook amid weak home-improvement demand. A survey showed 45% of fund managers now view an AI bubble as the top market “tail risk,” fueled by rising valuations and heavy data-center debt loads. Overseas, Japan and South Korea each dropped more than 3%, dragging global tech lower.

Why It Matters: For investors, the rotation away from AI high-flyers and cyclical retailers signals more caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow and Thursday’s delayed jobs report. For households, Home Depot’s weaker outlook reinforces the slowing home-renovation cycle—fewer remodels, softer big-ticket purchases, and tighter promotions heading into the holidays. Meanwhile, jobless claims at 232,000 suggest a cooling—but not collapsing—labor market, complicating expectations for Fed rate cuts.

What to Watch: Whether Thursday’s jobs report and Nvidia’s earnings ease the pressure—or trigger another leg down—since this market is giving off strong “don’t touch the stove” energy and investors are starting to wonder if the whole kitchen is overheating.
Source: wsj.com

2. Hiring Freezes Resembles Post-Recession Lows

The News: America’s “Great Freeze” is making it the toughest job-hunting climate since the aftermath of the Great Recession, analysts say. Hiring fell to 3.2% in August, near levels last seen in 2013, even though unemployment sits at 4.3%—far below post-crisis peaks. Bankrate’s Sarah Foster says today’s hiring rate typically corresponds to a 6.8% unemployment economy, a sign that companies are acting as if conditions are weaker than the headline numbers imply. Entry-level hiring dropped 6% YoY in October, while LinkedIn and Indeed data point to limited advancement in roles still hiring, such as retail and stocking.

Why It Matters: For job seekers, especially recent grads and career switchers, this is the tightest opportunity market in a decade—fewer openings, slower callbacks, and more competition for junior roles. Companies are expanding profits without expanding payrolls, leaning instead into AI and automation to boost productivity. That dynamic risks widening early-career pay gaps, slowing mobility, and pushing more workers toward gig work or self-employment. It also complicates the Fed’s soft-landing narrative: hiring this weak is usually paired with far higher joblessness.

What to Watch: How long companies can freeze hiring while profits rise. If people keep feeling stuck and technology keeps doing the heavy lifting, job seekers may need to get creative before the thaw arrives.
Source: aol.com

3. Record Chicago Property Tax Hikes Hit South and West Sides

The News: Chicago homeowners—especially in historically disinvested South and West Side neighborhoods—are facing the largest median property tax increase in at least 30 years, with bills up 16.7% citywide. Several predominantly Black neighborhoods saw increases of 50% to 100%, while tax bills for downtown commercial properties fell as plunging Loop office values shifted the tax burden onto residents. The collapse in office valuations—down more than 7%—pulled commercial tax obligations down by $129 million, leaving homeowners to make up the difference.

Why It Matters: Steep tax hikes don’t just squeeze household budgets—they pull spending power directly out of local economies. When homeowners suddenly owe thousands more each year, that’s money not spent at neighborhood restaurants, repair shops, childcare providers, or small retailers. For areas like North Lawndale, Englewood, and West Garfield Park—where residents are already contending with decades of uneven investment—the hit risks slowing real estate momentum, discouraging new buyers, and making development math far harder. With retail vacancies still elevated and inflation lingering, a tax shock of this size becomes a direct drag on community recovery.

What to Watch: Whether city and county leaders can stabilize assessments and avoid another whiplash year. Unpredictable tax bills don’t just frustrate homeowners, they freeze investment long before developers even pull permits.
Source: chicagotribune.com

4. Kroger Shutters Three Robotic Warehouses, Takes $2.6B Charge

The News: Kroger will close automated fulfillment centers in Wisconsin, Maryland, and Florida in January and book a $2.6 billion Q3 impairment, unwinding part of its high-profile Ocado robotics partnership. The shift pushes the grocer toward third-party delivery platforms like Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats, which now cover nearly 2,700 stores. Kroger said the move won’t affect core sales and should lift e-commerce operating profit by roughly $400 million in fiscal 2026. Ocado shares plunged 20%, and the company expects a $50 million revenue hit next year despite receiving more than $250 million in termination compensation.

Why It Matters: For shoppers, the pivot means delivery options will likely become faster and more reliable but also more influenced by fees and service markups, since third-party apps rarely deliver savings. For workers near the shuttered sites, the closures signal more automation retrenchment and fewer warehouse jobs tied to grocery e-commerce. For Kroger investors, the $2.6 billion charge is a painful admission that the original 2018 robotics expansion never fully scaled, with only 8 of 20 planned sites ever coming online.

What to Watch: Whether Kroger’s app-based delivery strategy leads to price creep for customers. If your groceries start arriving quicker but your service fees multiply just as fast, it’s hardly an upgrade worth celebrating.
Source: reuters.com

5. Utility Bills Jump 35% as 14 Million Americans Fall Into Collections

The News: A new report from The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers shows 14 million Americans now have utility debt severe enough to be sent to collections—a surge fueled by monthly energy bills rising from $196 to $265 since 2022, up 35% and nearly triple overall inflation. Average overdue balances climbed to $789, with Black households three times more likely than white households to be behind and carrying late bills approaching $900. In the first six months of this year, severely overdue accounts rose by 117,000, or 3.8%.

Why It Matters: Higher utility costs force households to cut back on essentials—groceries, medications, car repairs—and pull spending out of local economies already stretched by cooling job markets. The backlash is increasingly political: AI data centers, which have driven double-digit electricity price spikes in states like Virginia (+13%), Illinois (+16%), and Ohio (+12%), now sit at the center of ratepayer anger. Capacity auctions across the PJM grid have soared to a record $329/MW-day, with data center demand responsible for roughly half of the $30.8 billion in revenue from the last two auctions. With Democrats now campaigning—and winning—on promises to rein in Big Tech’s energy use, the debate over who pays for AI’s power needs is quickly becoming a national fight.

What to Watch: Whether policymakers step in with rate caps, cost-sharing rules, or new restrictions that could soften bills for households which could threaten to slow the breakneck data-center buildout. For now, families just want one thing: an electric bill that doesn’t feel like it’s been training with Nvidia’s GPUs.
Source: katv.com

1. Japan Tourism Stocks Plunge After China Warns Citizens to Avoid Travel

The News: Japanese tourism and retail shares tumbled Monday after Beijing urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, escalating a diplomatic spat triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments on Taiwan. Major consumer-facing names were hit hard: Shiseido -11.4%, Isetan Mitsukoshi -11.4%, Pan Pacific (Don Quijote) -8.4%, Fast Retailing -6%, Oriental Land (Tokyo Disneyland) -5.1%, and Japan Airlines -3.9%. The Nikkei slipped 0.7%. China accounts for roughly 24% of inbound visitors—Japan’s largest tourism driver.

Why It Matters: For travelers, the advisory means pricier flights and hotel deals in Japan may suddenly look abundant—but local businesses that rely on Chinese tourists could scale back hiring, promotions, or store expansions if foot traffic dries up. Tourism is a rising pillar of Japan’s economy thanks to the weak yen, and a downturn threatens earnings for retailers, restaurants, and hotels just as holiday travel ramps up. Diplomatic tensions over Taiwan also risk broader trade frictions between two of Asia’s largest economies, with consumer brands caught squarely in the crossfire.

What to Watch: Whether Chinese bookings rebound—or collapse further—in the next few weeks, since a prolonged freeze could turn today’s stock drop into next quarter’s discount rack and if you have the money and always wanted to visit Japan, be on the look out for some good deals.
Source: channelnewasia.com

2. U.S. Soybeans Jump 3% as China Signals Renewed Buying

The News: U.S. soybean futures surged 3.2% on Monday to a 17-month high after President Trump said China is preparing to restart large-scale purchases, with imports potentially resuming before spring. Brokerage AgResource said Chinese buyers snapped up 7–10 cargoes for January and mid-2025 shipment. The administration previously claimed Beijing agreed to buy 12 million tons this season—critical for farmers squeezed by high input costs—though USDA data shows just 232,000 tons actually destined for China so far, after a correction removed 100,000 tons from last week’s tally.

Why It Matters: A sustained pickup in Chinese buying would directly support farm incomes at a time when higher fuel, fertilizer, and financing costs are still eroding margins. But higher prices cut both ways: the rally has pushed U.S. soybeans back above Brazil’s benchmarks, making American crops less competitive for other global buyers. That means China’s purchases—driven in part by trade diplomacy—may carry the market while commercial demand shifts south. Domestic processors are already filling some of the gap, with U.S. soybean crushing hitting a record in October.

What to Watch: How quickly any new Chinese orders show up in the USDA’s weekly export data. For farmers planning spring inputs, what matters isn’t talk from Air Force One, it’s actual tonnage on the books.
Source: scmp.com

3. Chevron Eyes Select Lukoil Assets After U.S. Opens Narrow Negotiations Window

The News: Chevron is evaluating purchases of specific overseas assets from Russia’s Lukoil after the U.S. Treasury issued a short-term license allowing negotiations until December 13, Reuters reported. The license arrives just ahead of full U.S. sanctions taking effect on November 21. Rather than bidding for Lukoil’s entire international portfolio, Chevron is weighing assets that overlap with its existing operations. The move follows Swiss trader Gunvor’s withdrawal of its $22 billion bid, and separate interest from Carlyle, whose energy strategy is led by former Goldman commodities chief Jeffrey Currie.

Why It Matters: For U.S. energy consumers, any Chevron acquisition that stabilizes output in key fields—especially in Iraq—can help keep long-term supply reliable and reduce price volatility at home. The crown jewel is Lukoil’s 75% stake in Iraq’s West Qurna-2, where payments to Lukoil have been halted under sanctions, triggering force majeure. Chevron has recently expanded its Iraqi footprint, signing deals in August to develop the Nassiriya and Balad fields, making a selective acquisition strategically attractive. With Baghdad seeking a six-month U.S. license to keep West Qurna-2 operating and at least three companies circling, the sale outcome will influence global oil flows and OPEC-adjacent geopolitics.

What to Watch: Whether Chevron moves quickly before the Dec. 13 window closes. Oil deals take a long time but the phrase, “short-term license” is bureaucratic code for make up your mind fast.
Source: themoscowtimes.com

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