Good Afternoon. It’s National Name Your Car Day, so if your car doesn’t already go by “The Silver Stallion,” today’s the day. Hiring plans just sank to Great Recession lows, but at least Amazon may cut your grocery bill with low priced staples. Meanwhile, chips in Seoul are hitting record highs, Congress is stuck in shutdown mode, and AOL may soon be…Italian? Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

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1. Stock Rise as Shutdown Hits Day Two

The News: U.S. stocks edged higher on Oct. 2 even as the federal government shutdown stretched into a second day. The Nasdaq led gains, boosted by a global rally in chip stocks after Samsung and SK Hynix struck an OpenAI partnership. More on that in the World News Section. Meanwhile, large banks and oil stocks slipped. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the shutdown could dent growth, while prediction markets now expect it to last at least another week, delaying key data like the monthly jobs report. Gold retreated 1% from record highs, and Bitcoin crossed $120,000.

Why It Matters: A longer shutdown risks delayed paychecks for federal workers and slower economic data that guides borrowing costs. For investors, chipmakers look shielded by AI demand while banks and energy tread water. The bigger risk: if furloughs turn into layoffs, growth fears could outweigh the AI-fueled rally. What to Watch: Whether Congress resolves the impasse before earnings season kicks off in two weeks. Wall Street may run on AI and chips these days, but Main Street still needs a paycheck.
Source: wsj.com

2. Neptune Flood IPO Rides Shutdown Wave

The News: Neptune Insurance, the largest U.S. private flood insurer, debuted on the NYSE under ticker NP, raising $368M by selling 18M shares at $20 each. Shares opened at $22.50. The IPO landed just as the federal government shutdown halted the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) from processing new claims or applications—delaying up to 1,300 home closings per day. Neptune, which offers up to $7M in coverage vs. NFIP’s $250K cap, uses AI to assess property-level flood risk and has been gaining share as homeowners pivot from government-backed coverage.

Why It Matters: For homebuyers, Neptune fills a sudden insurance gap that could otherwise stall closings, especially in flood-prone regions. For investors, the IPO highlights a fast-growing niche as private carriers eat into NFIP’s dominance. With U.S. flooding damage estimated at up to $496B annually, the market is massive and Neptune is betting tech-driven underwriting can outperform blunt government risk maps. What to Watch: How Neptune’s early trading holds up as the shutdown drags on and hurricane season peaks. From an opportunity perspective, Neptune chairman and CEO Trevor Burgess puts it well, “We can help the 1,300 people every day who are trying to close on their homes who need flood insurance or required to have flood insurance.”
Source: cnbc.com

3. Hiring Plans Sink to Great Recession Lows

The News: U.S. employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September, down 37% from August, but 2025 hiring plans collapsed to just 204,939 new roles—the lowest year-to-date total since 2009. Overall job cuts this year have reached 946,426, the highest since 2020. Government layoffs (299,755 so far) and tech-driven cuts, including 17,375 explicitly tied to AI, are leading the charge. Meanwhile, ADP reported private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, missing forecasts for a 51,000 gain. With the shutdown delaying official labor data, the Fed is “flying blind” ahead of its Oct. 28–29 meeting.

Why It Matters: For workers, the slowdown means fewer opportunities and a labor market that’s neither hot nor safe. For policymakers, the data blackout complicates decisions, but Wall Street is already pricing in another Fed rate cut. If hiring stays at recessionary lows, wages and spending could weaken and ripple through the economy. What to Watch: The Fed’s October meeting and whether alternative data confirms the labor market’s stall. Although the jobs market isn’t crashing, it definitely feels like its stuck in traffic.
Source: challengergray.com

4. Coinbase Backs $12K Crypto Aid Pilot in New York

The News: Coinbase is funding a pilot program that distributes $12,000 in USDC stablecoins to 160 low-income young adults in New York, selected via lottery. Run by nonprofit GiveDirectly, the program aims to test whether stablecoins can deliver aid faster and more efficiently than traditional welfare systems. Each participant receives unrestricted funds, mirroring universal basic income experiments. The project comes as Coinbase expands in New York and as stablecoins gain traction as a regulated, low-volatility digital asset for payments and aid.

Why It Matters: For recipients, the pilot is real cash support without the paperwork, delays, or volatility that plague many aid programs. For Coinbase, it’s a proof-of-concept: showing regulators and policymakers that crypto can power institutional finance beyond trading apps. If successful, it could pave the way for digital currencies in welfare distribution globally. What to Watch: Results from the study on how recipients spend and manage stablecoin aid, due in 2026. Welfare by blockchain sounds futuristic, but for 160 New Yorkers, it’s rent money today. For once, crypto could make life simpler, not just more speculative.
Source: coincentral.com

5. Amazon Rolls Out $5 Grocery Brand

The News: Amazon launched Amazon Grocery on Oct. 1, a new private-label line combining its Fresh and Happy Belly brands into one budget-friendly offering. The line spans 1,000+ items, from milk and olive oil to seafood and bakery goods, most priced under $5. It will be sold online and in Amazon Fresh stores, competing directly with Walmart’s Great Value and Target’s private-label staples. Amazon says private-label purchases rose 15% YoY in 2024, and it plans to keep expanding with frozen meals, deli meats, and baked goods in the coming months. Customers in 1,000 cities and towns across the U.S. can now order fresh groceries with their Same-Day Delivery orders with plans to expand to over 2,300 cities by the end of 2025.

Why It Matters: For shoppers, it’s a chance to stretch food budgets as grocery inflation bites, with Amazon offering big-box value plus online convenience. For rivals, the move intensifies the private-label price war, threatening grocery margins while boosting Amazon’s ecosystem stickiness. Amazon isn’t just chasing your Prime membership anymore, it wants to own your weekly grocery cart. What to Watch: Customer adoption in Fresh stores and how quickly Amazon expands its $5 line nationwide. For now, let’s hope this pressures rivals to cut prices too as we could all use a cheaper grocery bill.
Source: techcrunch.com

1. EU Eyes Frozen Russian Assets for Ukraine Loan

The News: EU leaders are rallying behind a plan to use €210B ($247B) in frozen Russian assets to back a €140B ($164B) loan for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The “Reparations Loan” would shift repayment to Russia once it pays war damages, sparing EU taxpayers upfront. Support grew at an Oct. 1 summit in Copenhagen, with Finland, Sweden, and Estonia backing the proposal, while France and the Netherlands urged caution over legality. The Kremlin blasted the move as “theft,” warning it would erode confidence in European financial hubs.

Why It Matters: If approved, the loan could unlock massive funds for Ukraine without draining EU budgets, crucial as Kyiv’s reconstruction tab already tops $524B, or nearly triple its 2024 GDP. For investors, it risks shaking trust in Euroclear and other European custodians, potentially pushing global capital toward U.S. or Asian havens. Russia’s retaliation could target Western assets abroad, escalating financial warfare. What to Watch: The European Commission’s legal framework due later this fall; if it clears, expect immediate bond market ripples. Russia calls it a bank heist, the EU calls it creative.
Source: aljazeera.com

2. Yahoo Nears $1.4B Sale of AOL to Italy’s Bending Spoons

The News: Yahoo is close to selling AOL to Milan-based app developer Bending Spoons for about $1.4B, sources told Reuters on Oct. 1. The deal, still under negotiation, would transfer one of the internet’s most famous brands, once part of the $182B AOL-Time Warner merger, to a European tech firm best known for buying struggling digital assets. AOL still pulls in revenue from ads and subscriptions like LifeLock and LastPass, and its website traffic jumped 20% YoY among adults 25–54. Bending Spoons, valued at $2.55B in 2024, recently bought Vimeo for $1.38B.

Why It Matters: For users, it could mean a fresher AOL, possibly with tighter app integration, though expect more ads as private equity cashes out. For investors, the sale underscores Apollo’s strategy of carving up old internet assets while Bending Spoons builds a pre-IPO portfolio of global names. If successful, the Italian firm may emerge as Europe’s answer to IAC, buying tired brands and wringing out new growth. What to Watch: Whether the deal closes this fall and if Bending Spoons pursues a U.S. IPO in 2026. Bending Spoons may be betting that AOL’s users are loyal or on their perceived purchasing power as the average AOL mail user is expected to be 55+. Proof that in advertising, a high value audience can lead to negotiating leverage.
Source: reuters.com

3. SK Hynix Hits 25-Year High on OpenAI Chip Pact

The News: Shares of South Korea’s SK Hynix jumped nearly 10%, reaching levels unseen since 2000, after partnering with OpenAI to supply advanced memory chips for AI. Samsung gained 3.5%, its best since Jan. 2021, on the same deal. The partnership, part of OpenAI’s Stargate initiative, will boost AI memory supply and expand Korean data center capacity. Hynix already leads in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) crucial for Nvidia’s next-gen Rubin chips, while Samsung races to secure Nvidia certification for its HBM4. Both firms are battling for the top spot in the global memory market.

Why It Matters: For consumers, this pact could mean faster, cheaper AI services as chip bottlenecks ease. For investors, the rally highlights Korea’s central role in the AI hardware boom, Hynix is cementing its Nvidia pipeline, while Samsung is angling for a comeback after a 94% YoY profit plunge in chips. What to Watch: Nvidia’s certification of Samsung’s HBM4 and OpenAI’s data center rollout in Korea. Samsung is best known for their phones, but they may soon be the next chip darling.
Source: cnbc.com

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A: Sneakers.

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