Good Afternoon. Friday the 13th is living up to the superstition. The government just told us Q4 GDP was half of what we thought, core PCE printed at its hottest level since March 2024, and consumers are about as optimistic as a farmer watching a hailstorm roll in. Markets tried to rally early on falling oil, but gravity won. Buckle up — it's a data dump.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. The Economy Was Running on Fumes — and We Didn't Even Know It

The News: The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q4 2025 GDP growth down to just 0.7% annualized — half the initial 1.4% estimate and well below the 1.5% Wall Street consensus. The revision was driven by weaker consumer spending, lower government expenditures (the federal shutdown alone shaved roughly 1 percentage point off growth), and softer exports. For context, Q3 grew at a blistering 4.4%.

Why It Matters: This is a jarring deceleration. Going from 4.4% to 0.7% in one quarter is like a car hitting a pothole at highway speed. For investors, it raises the uncomfortable question of whether the economy was already losing altitude before the Iran war sent oil prices into orbit. For the Fed, it complicates the "hold rates high" playbook — growth is slowing, but inflation (see story #2) is re-accelerating. That's the definition of a policy box.

What to Watch: The next GDP update in early April will incorporate more complete data. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 tracker will be closely watched — any read below 2% will amplify recession chatter fast.

Source: IndexBox / BEA

2. Inflation Picks Up Speed Just When We Needed It to Slow Down

The News: The January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — showed core PCE rising 3.1% year-over-year, the hottest reading since March 2024 and up from 3.0% in December. On a monthly basis, core PCE jumped 0.4%. Headline PCE came in at 2.9% year-over-year. Consumer spending rose 0.4% month-over-month.

Why It Matters: The Fed wanted to see inflation trending down toward 2%. Instead, it's moving the wrong way — and this is before oil's spike above $100 has had time to filter through the data. For consumers, the math is brutal: prices are rising faster while economic growth is stalling. For traders, the probability of a rate cut this year just took another hit.

What to Watch: The February PCE (out in April) will be the first to capture some early effects of the oil shock. If core PCE pushes toward 3.5%, stagflation comparisons will go from whisper to headline.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. Adobe's Shantanu Narayen Steps Down After 18 Years — and the AI Cloud Won't Lift

The News: Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen announced Thursday that he will step down once a successor is named, ending an 18-year tenure atop the creative software empire. He'll remain as board chair. The news came alongside Adobe's Q1 earnings, which beat estimates ($6.06 EPS vs. $5.87 expected), but the stock still fell roughly 7% in after-hours trading as investors focused on the leadership vacuum and an AI strategy that hasn't convinced Wall Street.

Why It Matters: Narayen transformed Adobe from a boxed-software company into a $200B+ cloud giant. But the stock is down over 60% from its 2021 peak and has lost 23% this year alone. Investors worry that generative AI tools from startups are eating into Adobe's creative suite moat. The leadership change is less about what Narayen did wrong and more about what the next CEO will need to do right — fast.

What to Watch: The successor search will be closely scrutinized. Wall Street wants someone with deep AI chops. Any name with a track record in machine learning or enterprise AI could send the stock higher overnight.

Source: CNBC

4. Consumers Are Watching Gas Prices Rise and Feeling Every Cent

The News: The University of Michigan's preliminary March consumer sentiment index dropped to 55.5, down from 56.6 in February and the lowest reading of 2026. Notably, interviews conducted before the Iran war showed improving sentiment, but the nine days of surveys taken after hostilities began completely erased those gains. Year-ahead inflation expectations stalled at 3.4%, ending six months of consecutive declines.

Why It Matters: Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator for spending — and spending is two-thirds of GDP. The fact that the war-driven oil shock is already showing up in how people feel about the economy is a warning shot. For investors, weaker sentiment + sticky inflation = a consumer who might start pulling back on discretionary spending. Retailers and restaurants should be paying attention.

What to Watch: The final March reading (due late March) will have a full month of war-era data. If it breaks below 55, it'll be the weakest since the bank stress of late 2023.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

5. The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed — and Now Your Lawn Fertilizer Costs More, Too

The News: Fertilizer stocks are surging as the Hormuz blockade disrupts global supply chains beyond just crude oil. Nutrien jumped nearly 6% after Jefferies upgraded it to buy with a $96 price target. CF Industries and Mosaic are also climbing. The Middle East supplies a significant share of global potash and nitrogen-based fertilizers, and with shipping through the strait down to a trickle (roughly 5 vessels per day vs. 138 pre-war), spot prices for key inputs have spiked.

Why It Matters: Everyone's focused on the oil story — but the Hormuz crisis is a supply chain wrecking ball that extends well beyond energy. For North American producers like Nutrien, the disruption is a windfall: they're geographically insulated from the fighting but benefit from higher global prices. For consumers, higher fertilizer costs will eventually show up in food prices just as spring planting kicks off.

What to Watch: If Hormuz stays closed through April, expect a meaningful uptick in food inflation in Q2. The USDA's next crop supply report will be closely watched for early planting cost signals.

Source: MLQ.ai

1. The U.S. Gives Russia a Quiet Oil Lifeline — 121 Million Barrels' Worth

The News: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian oil already in transit at sea. Approximately 121 million barrels of Russian crude are currently on the water — roughly equivalent to 5-6 days of Hormuz flow. Bessent called it a "narrowly tailored, short-term measure" that won't significantly benefit Moscow financially. Markets initially dipped on the headline, but Brent crude quickly recovered back above $100.

Why It Matters: This is the geopolitical equivalent of raiding the pantry during a blizzard. The U.S. is easing pressure on Russia — its strategic adversary — to plug the oil hole left by the Iran war. It's a signal of how desperate the administration is to cool energy prices, even at the cost of diplomatic awkwardness. For Russia, it's a revenue lifeline at the best possible time.

What to Watch: Whether the 30-day window gets extended. If Hormuz remains closed, expect louder calls to broaden the waiver — and fierce pushback from congressional hawks who don't want Moscow benefiting from the war.

Source: CNBC

2. From Tokyo to London, the Energy Crisis Is Reshuffling Global Winners and Losers

The News: Asian and European markets are buckling under the weight of $100+ oil. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed from 138 vessels per day to roughly 5, creating a daily global supply shortfall estimated at 15-20 million barrels. The IEA's 400-million-barrel reserve release this week drew a shrug from traders. India, Pakistan, Thailand, and the Philippines — all major oil importers — are seeing currencies weaken and equity markets sell off. Meanwhile, energy exporters like Canada, Norway, and (ironically) Russia are catching a tailwind.

Why It Matters: The longer the Hormuz chokepoint stays shut, the more the global energy map gets redrawn. Europe, which was already battling a sluggish recovery, now faces the prospect of higher inflation just as the ECB was considering rate cuts. For emerging markets, the oil shock is a double hit: more expensive energy imports and capital flight to safer havens.

What to Watch: Watch the ECB's next policy statement closely. Any language about energy-driven inflation risks could signal rate cuts are off the table, sending European bond yields higher.

Source: Al Jazeera

3. Nvidia's GTC Conference Starts Monday — and AI Investors Need a Win

The News: Nvidia kicks off its annual GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose on Monday, with CEO Jensen Huang's keynote expected to showcase the next wave of AI hardware and software. Daiwa reiterated an outperform rating with a $215 price target ahead of the event. Rumors suggest Nvidia will unveil NemoClaw, an open-source platform for enterprise AI agents, and provide updates on its $20 billion Groq technology licensing deal.

Why It Matters: With the Magnificent Seven stocks battered by war-driven volatility and growth fears, GTC is a chance for Nvidia — still the kingpin of AI infrastructure — to remind investors why the AI trade isn't dead, just resting. The event typically moves markets, and this year's stakes are higher than ever. A blowout keynote could spark a tech rally; anything underwhelming risks accelerating the rotation out of growth.

What to Watch: Jensen's keynote on Monday at 2 PM ET. Specifically, listen for details on Vera Rubin (next-gen GPU architecture), NemoClaw, and any new enterprise partnerships that signal AI spending isn't slowing.

Source: TechCrunch

Q: Why can't you trust atoms?

A: They make up everything.

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The quantity of goods or services that a unit of currency can buy at a given time, which erodes as inflation rises.

"With core PCE running at 3.1% and gas prices climbing, retirees are feeling the squeeze on their purchasing power — every dollar buys a little less than it did last year."

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