Good Afternoon. Healthcare rarely does refunds, so when it happens, it’s news and a warning flare for those bracing for higher 2026 premiums and doing the monthly “what will this actually cost?” math. In the same affordability mood, “No Buy January” is trending for a reason. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Head Higher After Trump Pauses Europe Tariffs

The News: U.S. stocks rallied on Jan. 21, 2026 after President Trump said a NATO-backed “framework” on Greenland and the Arctic would remove the need for new tariffs on Europe that had been scheduled to begin Feb. 1. In afternoon trading, the Dow rose about +593 points (+1.21%) to 49,076, the S&P 500 gained +1.16% to 6,875, and the Nasdaq added +1.18% to 23,224, reversing part of Tuesday’s trade-war-driven selloff. Rates calmed a bit: the U.S. 10-year yield eased to around 4.26% as bond markets stabilized.

Why It Matters: This is how policy whiplash turns into financial whiplash: When those tariffs get walked back, the “tighten up” mood relaxes and financial conditions loosen (at least until the next post). For investors, it’s a reminder that 2026’s market driver isn’t just earnings, it’s headline velocity: one day of trade-war talk can torch risk appetite, and one framework can bring it back. Be ready for a bumpy ride.

What to Watch: Watch the negotiation details—who’s at the table (Trump named JD Vance and Marco Rubio) and whether “framework” becomes an actual agreement or just a pause button. Also watch the Fed-independence subplot: the Supreme Court signaled skepticism toward Trump’s push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case markets are watching closely because it tests how insulated the Fed really is.
Source: wsj.com

2. UnitedHealth Offers ACA Profit Rebates for 2026 as Subsidy Cliff Looms

The News: UnitedHealth Group said it will voluntarily eliminate and rebate its profits from its Affordable Care Act (ACA) individual-market plans in 2026, according to CEO Stephen Hemsley’s prepared testimony posted ahead of Jan. 22, 2026 congressional hearings on insurance affordability. The insurer didn’t quantify the dollars, but said it’s a “relatively small participant” in the ACA individual market; Reuters reported UnitedHealthcare expects a two-thirds drop in ACA enrollment in 2026 and will offer ACA plans in 30 states. The announcement lands as enhanced premium tax credits expired Dec. 31, 2025; KFF estimates subsidized ACA enrollees’ average annual premium payments could rise 114%, from $888 (2025) to $1,904 (2026) if Congress doesn’t renew them.

Why It Matters: This is a rare headline that actually tries to put cash back in the customer’s lane, especially as many ACA shoppers brace for higher net premiums after the subsidy expiration. But rebates won’t fix the bigger affordability problem if subsidies aren’t extended: a “profit giveback” helps, but it’s not the same as preventing a four-figure annual premium jump for millions. UnitedHealth is showing up with a preemptive “we’re not the villain” slide, delivered in the form of refunds. (Nothing says “trust us” like voluntarily giving money back right before testimony.)

What to Watch: Watch Thursday’s House Energy & Commerce hearing (Jan. 22, 2026, 9:45 a.m. ET) for whether lawmakers push for a subsidy extension or pivot to tougher rules on insurer pricing and margins. Also watch Congressional movement on enhanced ACA tax credits by late January/early February; insurers have warned that uncertainty can lead to higher rates and lower real enrollment even if people “auto-renew.” In health insurance, the scariest phrase is still “pending legislation.”
Source: reuters.com

3. Berkshire Hints It Could Exit Kraft Heinz

The News: Kraft Heinz disclosed in a regulatory filing that Berkshire Hathaway may sell its 325.4 million shares—about a 27.5% stake worth roughly $7.7 billion—signaling Berkshire could unwind one of its most notorious big bets. Kraft Heinz shares fell about 6%–7% on the disclosure, hitting a near six-year low, per Reuters. The stake traces back to the 2015 Kraft–Heinz merger Berkshire helped engineer with 3G Capital; Reuters said Berkshire has taken write-downs totaling about $6.76 billion on the investment.

Why It Matters: This is a “sign of the times” for Berkshire: under Warren Buffett, the brand was famous for buying and holding; under Greg Abel, investors may see more willingness to prune a laggard when the thesis breaks. For Kraft Heinz, a Berkshire exit would remove the comforting “Buffett halo” and force the company to stand on operating results. For shareholders, it’s also a reminder that packaged food is in a tough era: when consumers are value-hunting and ingredient costs swing, “set it and forget it” brands don’t get a free pass. Even Berkshire is learning like the rest of us, sometimes you really do clean out the pantry.

What to Watch: If Berkshire actually sells (this filing registers shares for potential resale; it’s not a guaranteed dump) and how quickly. If Abel starts with Kraft, investors will ask the obvious next question: what else is suddenly “for sale”?
Source: reuters.com

4. Bank Stocks Bounce Back as Trump Defers to Congress

The News: U.S. bank stocks rebounded after President Trump said he would ask Congress, not impose unilateral action, to enact a one-year 10% cap on credit-card interest rates, easing fears of an immediate executive mandate. The relief followed a bruising Jan. 20 session when bank shares slid amid uncertainty over a previously floated “effective Jan. 20” timeline for the cap. Bank executives have warned a hard cap could sharply reduce access to credit; JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon called it an “economic disaster,” arguing it could take credit cards away from ~80% of Americans.

Why It Matters: A lower APR sounds like instant relief, because it is, if it actually happens and if you’re carrying a balance. But caps can come with side effects: banks and trade groups argue it could mean fewer approvals, lower limits, and fewer rewards, especially for riskier borrowers. For markets, the “Congress route” matters because it lowers the odds of a sudden cliff-edge change in bank profitability.

What to Watch: Whether any bill actually gets traction on Capitol Hill and what the compromise looks like (targeted relief cards, “no-frills” products, or a narrower cap). Also watch Capital One and other card-heavy lenders as earnings hit: guidance on net interest margins and credit performance will show how much of this is headline risk versus real business risk.
Source: cnbc.com

5. “No Buy January” Hits Peak Search Interest as Credit Cards Hit $1.23T

The News: Google searches for “No Buy January” have hit a five-year high as Gen Z and millennials push a social-media budgeting challenge to cut discretionary spending, according to the Wall Street Journal. The trend is landing in ugly math: U.S. credit card balances reached $1.23 trillion in Q3 2025, per the New York Fed, and Bankrate found 61% of Americans with card debt have carried it for at least a year (up from 53% in late 2024). Intuit’s latest survey adds the mood music: 53% say financial stress increased over the past year, and 61% call money their top life stressor.

Why It Matters: This is affordability culture becoming a coping mechanism. When groceries, rent, and interest rates don’t leave much room, “No Buy January” is basically a DIY rate cut, one canceled cart at a time. For consumers, it’s a useful reset (especially if the “savings” go to pay off high-APR debt), but it also signals a squeeze: people aren’t “budgeting for fun,” they’re budgeting because the minimum payment has started to feel like a subscription you can’t cancel.

What to Watch: Watch whether this becomes a January-only cleanse or a longer “low-buy” shift, Google Trends can spike, but credit card statements are monthly. Also watch delinquency and consumer-spending data through February–March 2026; if balances stay high and more borrowers stay in long-duration debt, you’ll see more retailers leaning into value, BNPL, and aggressive discounts.
Source: wsj.com

1. Nordic Pension Funds Trim Treasuries

The News: Sweden’s Alecta, one of Europe’s biggest pension funds, has sold most of its U.S. Treasury holdings over the last year, about 70–80 billion Swedish crowns ($7.7B–$8.8B) out of roughly 100 billion crowns, citing higher risk and unpredictability in U.S. politics, according to Dagens Industri and confirmed in comments reported by Reuters on Jan. 21, 2026. The move follows Denmark’s AkademikerPension saying it will sell its entire ~$100M Treasury position by the end of January 2026, a decision it linked to concerns about long-run U.S. government finances. The backdrop includes fresh Europe-U.S. tension tied to Greenland and tariff threats earlier this week (now reportedly paused after a NATO “framework” discussion in Davos).

Why It Matters: If global buyers demand a bit more yield to hold U.S. debt, borrowing costs can creep up. For markets, the bigger signal is confidence optics: when conservative institutions like pension funds start talking about “unpredictability,” it can feed the broader “diversify away from U.S. assets” narrative, especially after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. to Aa1 from Aaa last May, citing deficits and rising interest costs. And yes, it’s a little surreal that the world’s “risk-free” asset is now being discussed due to its riskiness.

What to Watch: Watch whether this is an isolated Nordic reshuffle or part of a broader trend among large foreign holders. Also watch the politics-to-pricing pipeline: even with Trump putting the Greenland-linked tariffs “on ice,” the episode reminded investors how quickly trade headlines can hit rates and risk sentiment. If the next surprise is fiscal, not geopolitical, bond investors won’t wait for a press conference to react.
Source: reuters.com

2. Poland Goes Bigger on Gold

The News: Poland’s central bank said it plans to raise its gold reserves to 700 tonnes from about 550 tonnes, a jump that would put it among the world’s top 10 official gold holders. The move lands as central-bank buying remains structurally strong: the World Gold Council reported official-sector purchases hit a record 1,136 tonnes in 2022, and buying has stayed above 1,000 tonnes in 2024 as well. The backdrop is a ripping bullion news, spot gold pushed above $4,800/oz on Jan. 21, 2026, extending its record run amid geopolitical tension and tariff headlines.

Why It Matters: For consumers, soaring gold is usually a neon sign that big institutions are paying for insurance, which often shows up elsewhere as tighter financial conditions and a stronger bid for “safe” assets. For investors, Poland’s plan is another reminder that central banks aren’t trading gold like a meme stock, they’re treating it like a long-duration hedge against currency, sanctions, and “oops, that escalated” moments. And when official buyers keep showing up, it can put a floor under prices that makes inflation hedging feel less theoretical. Basically: gold is acting like the world’s stress ball, and central banks are squeezing it hard.

What to Watch: Watch the pace and reporting of official purchases in 2026, especially from emerging-market central banks, because sustained buying is what turns “spike” into “trend line.” If gold keeps flirting with $5,000, expect more central bankers to suddenly discover they “always liked diversification.”
Source: notesfrompoland.com

3. Tariffs Didn’t Kill the Trade Deficit, They Moved It

The News: New trade data show the U.S. import gap has shifted toward Vietnam and Taiwan even as tariffs squeezed China’s direct exports. Reuters has reported Vietnam’s goods surplus with the U.S. climbed to $144.2 billion from January–October 2025, despite 20% U.S. tariffs imposed in August 2025. Separately, Taiwan’s export machine has been fueled by AI chip demand: Reuters reported Taiwan’s 2025 export orders hit a record $743.73 billion (+26% YoY).

Why It Matters: This is the part where tariffs behave less like a wall and more like a detour sign: if Americans still want the stuff, supply chains route around the toll booths and prices can stay stubborn because someone still pays the toll somewhere. For businesses, “deficit shifting” means procurement keeps getting more complex (and compliance-heavy) as regulators look harder at transshipment and rules-of-origin. For markets, it’s a reminder that tariffs can change who gets paid without instantly changing what gets bought. Think of it like squeezing a balloon: the air doesn’t vanish, it just pops out somewhere else, usually with more paperwork.

What to Watch: Whether the U.S. tightens the next screw on Vietnam. Reuters reported the Trump administration is already signaling greater focus on the Vietnam trade gap as it swaps in a new ambassador and highlights surplus math. Also watch the legal backdrop: the Supreme Court is weighing the legality of key tariff authorities used in the last wave—any ruling could reshuffle the entire tariff playbook and the “detour routes” companies have built.
Source: aljazeera.com

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