Good Afternoon. While you are debating whether candy corn counts as a vegetable, Wall Street quietly hit new highs. Tech stocks are melting up, gold’s above $4,000, and Ford’s supply chain actually caught fire. Credit growth? Ice cold. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

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1. Wall Street Rises as Fed Minutes Show Split on Jobs vs. Inflation

The News: U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday as tech and chipmakers powered the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to near-record highs. With the government shutdown stalling economic data, traders parsed Fed meeting minutes showing a divided committee, some officials warning of rising labor risks, others still worried about inflation. Markets now see a 92.5% chance of a 25-bp rate cut at the Oct. 29 Fed meeting. AMD jumped 10%, extending a 42% weekly rally, while Dell and Freeport-McMoRan gained on upgrades. Gold topped $4,000/oz again as safe-haven demand stayed strong.

Why It Matters: For consumers, a split Fed and likely rate cut later this month mean borrowing costs could start easing—welcome news for mortgage and credit card holders—but not enough to jolt housing demand just yet. For investors, the message is muddled: tech’s AI-fueled rally is masking weakness elsewhere as policymakers juggle jobs and inflation with limited data. The longer Washington stays shut, the less the Fed can see before it steers. What to watch: October’s Fed meeting and early Q3 earnings for signs the AI boom can offset a softening economy. When chips lead and the Fed’s guessing, you’re trading on faith, not fundamentals.
Source: reuters.com

2. Ford Faces F-150 Supply Crunch After Aluminum Plant Fire

The News: A fire at Novelis’s Oswego, N.Y. plant—which supplies roughly 40% of U.S. auto-grade aluminum sheet—has halted production until Q1 fiscal 2026, threatening output of Ford’s top-selling F-150 pickup and other major models. Novelis said it’s rerouting production through its global network but warned disruptions are likely. Ford, which sells ≈750,000 F-series trucks a year, is working with alternate suppliers to cushion the hit. Analysts say Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai could also face minor supply pressure. Ford shares fell 1.9% Tuesday as investors weighed potential production slowdowns and cost impacts.

Why It Matters: For consumers, any extended aluminum shortage could squeeze truck inventories and lift prices on both new and used F-150s heading into winter, especially as dealers already face thin supply from the UAW strike ripple effects. For investors, Ford’s cost base just got heavier: sourcing replacement metal at premium prices could dent margins on its most profitable line. If shortages linger, EV production may also take a backseat as automakers prioritize high-margin models. What to watch: repair progress at Oswego and Ford’s production guidance when Q3 results land. When America’s best-selling truck hits a bad patch of road, the whole assembly line economy feels the pothole.
Source: foxbusiness.com

3. AI Bubble Talk Grows as OpenAI’s Chip Deals Inflate Valuations

The News: OpenAI’s multibillion-dollar partnership with AMD, announced Monday, sent the chipmaker’s stock soaring as reports surfaced that OpenAI could take a 10% stake tied to 6 gigawatts of AI computing power. The move follows a $100 billion Nvidia deal two weeks earlier, where Nvidia both funded OpenAI and sold it chips, effectively paying itself. Analysts now warn these “circular” arrangements could be inflating valuations across the AI supply chain. Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon said a correction could hit within 12–24 months, while Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett called the setup “late-inning bad actor behavior.” Combined, OpenAI’s partnerships now top $1 trillion in commitments.

Why It Matters: An AI slowdown could spill into everything from pricier cloud subscriptions to delayed hardware upgrades, as tech giants chase capacity over profitability. For investors, circular financing—where the same dollars ping-pong between partners—risks creating a feedback loop of inflated valuations and overbuilt infrastructure, echoing the dot-com and 2008 bubbles. If capex now equals 1.1% of U.S. GDP growth, the stakes aren’t just corporate, they’re macro. What to watch: Fed commentary on AI-driven investment spending and any early signs of cooling in chip orders. When everyone in the room is buying each other’s stock, it stops looking like innovation and starts looking like musical chairs with GPUs.
Source: aol.com

4. Consumer Credit Growth Collapses 98% as Borrowers Pull Back

The News: U.S. consumer credit growth nearly flatlined in August, rising just $363 million versus expectations of $13.5 billion, a 98% plunge from July’s $18.05 billion gain, according to new Federal Reserve data. Revolving credit—mainly credit cards—fell 5.5%, its third decline this year, marking the sharpest consumer pullback in six months. Economists blame higher borrowing costs, sticky 2.9% inflation, and falling consumer confidence (94.2, a five-month low). Credit delinquencies have jumped across income brackets, with even high earners seeing a 20% rise in late payments. Student loan delinquencies hit 10%, a record high.

Why It Matters: It’s a sign wallets are closing fast. Credit cards and student loans are biting harder, and households are shifting from “buy now” to “wait and see.” For investors, the slowdown signals a potential hit to retail sales and GDP growth just as the Fed weighs an October 29 rate cut. If top earners now drive two-thirds of all consumption, any spending pause hits harder. What to watch: upcoming retail sales data and delinquency trends heading into the holidays. When Americans stop swiping, it’s usually not discipline, it’s exhaustion.
Source: federalreserve.gov

5. Solid Power Soars 350% on Solid-State Battery Breakthrough

The News: Shares of Solid Power (SLDP) have skyrocketed 350% year-to-date, hitting a 52-week high of $6.33 on Oct. 7 as investors pile into the solid-state battery developer. The Colorado firm’s stock has surged 130% since July, buoyed by BMW’s successful real-world test of Solid Power’s all-solid-state cells in an i7 prototype, the first fully operational vehicle to run the technology. Backed by Ford, SK On, and the U.S. Department of Energy ($50 M grant), Solid Power beat Q2 revenue estimates by 50% ($7.5 M vs. $5 M expected) and now commands a $1.1 B market cap with $279.8 M in liquidity.

Why It Matters: For consumers, progress in solid-state batteries could mean EVs that charge in minutes, drive farther, and cost less to maintain, closing the convenience gap with gas cars. For investors, Solid Power’s leap cements it as a front-runner in the next battery cycle, though the road from pilot lines to mass production is notoriously capital-intensive. With both automakers and Washington backing the tech, the company’s momentum signals a broader bet on U.S. clean-energy leadership. What to watch: commercial-scale tests in 2026 and any new auto supply agreements. When your battery stock’s up 350%, just hope the chemistry stays more stable than the share price.
Source: investing.com

1. Greece Rejoins the Developed World After a Decade in Recovery

The News: FTSE Russell will reclassify Greece as a developed market effective Sept. 1, 2026, marking its official return 13 years after being downgraded during the debt crisis. The move follows a string of upgrades, S&P restored Greece’s developed-market equity status in July, and Moody’s returned its bonds to investment grade in March. The MSCI Greece Index is up 80% year-to-date, outperforming nearly all global peers. Ten-year Greek bonds now yield 3.35%, lower than Italy (3.49%) and France (3.53%), while public debt has fallen to 145% of GDP, down from 210% in 2010.

Why It Matters: For consumers, Greece’s comeback means a stronger economy, steadier jobs, and renewed investor confidence that could translate to more resilient growth. For investors, the upgrade trims the country’s risk premium and boosts access to foreign capital, even if passive flows may briefly dip (Cowen estimates $112M in net ETF outflows). With fiscal discipline and early IMF repayment, Greece is now one of only six EU nations running a surplus. What to watch: sustained GDP growth and banking reforms ahead of next year’s inclusion. For most of the last decade, Greece was the debt crisis everyone else worried about. Now it’s the recovery story everyone else wants to copy.
Source: marketwatch.com

2. London’s FTSE 100 Hits Record

The News: London’s FTSE 100 closed at a record 9,548.87 (+0.7%) on Oct. 8, powered by banks and miners as gold surged past $4,000/oz for the first time. Financial stocks climbed 1.9%, led by Lloyds (+3.7%) after regulators proposed lighter penalties for motor finance mis-selling. HSBC (+1.5%) gained on an analyst upgrade, and Close Brothers (+5.4%) led lenders. Gold miners Fresnillo (+3%) and Endeavour (+2.7%) jumped with bullion.

Why It Matters: The rally hints at renewed confidence in Britain’s financial sector but also tighter lending conditions ahead as banks regain pricing power. For investors, record gold prices and a resurgent FTSE show capital rotating toward defensive assets—banks for yield, bullion for safety—as global growth and policy risks rise psuing investors towards perceived safer geographies. Real estate remains the weak link, signaling households are still under pressure. What to watch: U.K. inflation and wage data next week, which could test whether the rally holds or cracks. When London’s traders pile into gold and lenders, they’re not betting on growth, they’re bracing for the bill.
Source: globalbankingandfinance.com

3. Shell Nears U.S. Green Light for Venezuelan Gas Exports

The News: Shell is close to securing U.S. approval to export Venezuelan natural gas to Trinidad and Tobago, marking a key shift in sanctions policy. The deal centers on the Dragon gas field, with exports potentially starting by 2026—earlier than expected. The project requires special exemptions from American restrictions on Venezuela’s state-run energy sector and would link Venezuelan gas to Trinidad’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) network. Trinidad, which relies heavily on gas imports for LNG and petrochemical production, has faced chronic supply shortages threatening jobs and output. Washington will retain control through renewable sanction waivers guiding project pace and terms.

Why It Matters: For consumers, increased regional gas supply could modestly ease LNG and fuel prices, particularly along the Gulf Coast, by improving refinery efficiency and stabilizing imports. For investors and energy players, the project underscores a subtle U.S. policy thaw toward Venezuela and a strategic bid to secure Caribbean energy flows without directly lifting sanctions. It’s also a win for Shell, expanding its LNG footprint while strengthening Trinidad’s economic base. What to watch: final U.S. Treasury approval and construction timelines into 2026. When it takes three countries and two waivers to turn on a gas valve, “energy flow” feels more like paperwork than power.
Source: bloomberg.com

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