Good Afternoon. Over the weekend, a social network where humans can’t post racked up a crowd of humans anyway. Moltbook is equal parts sci-fi demo and security stress test. Meanwhile, Disney’s parks hit $10B+, Saudi opened its stock market wider, Venezuela’s exports jumped, and Florida’s cold snap put orange juice on notice.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dow Rallies, While Oil Sinks

The News: U.S. stocks started February 2026 higher on Feb. 2, 2026, with the Dow up 1.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq up 0.56%, while commodities swung hard. Brent crude fell about 4.4% to ~$66.30/barrel after Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously” negotiating with the U.S., easing supply-fear premiums. Both gold and silver futures ended down about 1.9%, extending the post-rally unwind. Treasury yields ticked up after U.S. factory activity surprised to the upside, with the 10-year at ~4.276%, and markets also digested Trump’s announced trade deal with India.

Why It Matters: The news is sending a simple message: macro headlines are driving prices again. Falling oil can cool inflation expectations (helpful for consumers and rate-sensitive stocks), but the violent metals moves show how fast crowded trades can unwind when the dollar firms and yields rise. Meanwhile, a U.S.–India trade announcement is a reminder that tariffs and supply chains are still live variables for corporate margins especially in manufacturing and tech hardware. When commodities whip around like this, “diversification” starts to mean “seatbelt.”

What to Watch: Watch follow-through in commodities—especially whether silver stabilizes after last week’s nose dive—and whether oil keeps sliding if U.S.–Iran diplomacy holds. Never a dull moment.
Source: wsj.com

2. Moltbook Hits 1.5M AI “Users” Fast

The News: Moltbook, a Reddit-style social site where AI agents post and humans mostly observe, launched on Jan. 28, 2026 and quickly claimed 1.5 million+ registered agents and tens of thousands of posts by Feb. 1, 2026, per reporting from major outlets. The hype intensified on Feb. 2, 2026 after Reuters reported a major security lapse flagged by cybersecurity firm Wiz, which said a breach exposed private messages, more than 6,000 email addresses, and over 1 million credentials before the issue was fixed.

Why It Matters: This is a preview of what happens when “agentic” tools move from demos into public spaces: the risks shift from “wrong answers” to data exposure, impersonation, and malicious prompt injection and the consequences can be real if agents are connected to accounts, wallets, or devices. Moltbook is both a marketing moment and a warning label: there’s clear demand for agent-to-agent interaction, but the security bar is higher than most “move fast” startups are used to. If platforms like this scale, expect a surge in spending on agent monitoring, authentication, and content-safety tooling.

What to Watch: Watch whether Moltbook tightens verification, hardens defenses against agent hijacking, and publishes transparent metrics after the breach report. Also watch whether mainstream AI companies respond with clearer guidance or restrictions on how their models can be deployed as autonomous agents in public networks. Turns out the first viral “agent society” still needed a password reset.
Source: tech.yahoo.com

3. Bitcoin Slips Under ETF “Break-Even”

The News: Bitcoin slid to about $74,600 on Feb. 2, 2026, briefly dipping below $75,000 for the first time since April 2025. That drop pushed BTC under the estimated average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF buyers—about $87,830 per coin, per Galaxy Digital research cited in market reporting—meaning the “average ETF dollar” is now underwater. Flows have turned ugly, too: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $2.8 billion of net outflows over the past two weeks, including a $528.3 million one-day outflow from iShares Bitcoin Trust on Jan. 30, 2026, as macro jitters hit risk assets.

Why It Matters: When ETF buyers are underwater, the market’s “dip buyers” can turn into “get me back to flat” sellers—especially if headlines keep pushing rates higher and liquidity tighter. This mostly shows up as portfolio pain (and less appetite for risk across the board), but crypto drawdowns can also ripple into spending sentiment for the cohort that treats BTC like a high-beta savings account. For investors, this is the key test of the spot ETF story: does institutional money hold through a deep drawdown, or does the ETF wrapper make it easier to hit the eject button when macro winds shift?

What to Watch: Watch whether BTC can reclaim $80,000 and whether ETF flows stabilize this week. If outflows keep compounding while leverage gets flushed, the bottom may be a ways away and perhaps that will lead to a buying opportunity.
Source: barrons.com

4. Disney Beats Expectations, But Wall Street Still Wants the Next CEO Trailer

The News: The Walt Disney Company beat estimates for its fiscal Q1 (ended Dec. 27, 2025), posting $25.98B in revenue vs. $25.74B expected and $1.63 adjusted EPS vs. $1.57 expected, as parks and streaming carried the quarter. The Experiences segment (parks, resorts, cruises) topped $10B in quarterly revenue for the first time, with domestic parks revenue up 7% to $6.91B and international parks up 7% to $1.75B. Streaming also improved: Disney+ and Hulu helped lift streaming revenue 11% to $5.35B. Shares fell about 7% in early trading as investors focused on softer international visitation and the coming CEO handoff.

Why It Matters: This is Disney reminding everyone what actually pays the bills: parks and experiences keep throwing off cash, which supports investment in content, cruises, and the streaming bundle (and helps keep price hikes from being the only lever). The tension is familiar: the growth engines (parks + streaming profitability) look healthier, but the legacy TV business is still shrinking and leadership uncertainty can be louder than a clean beat. If the parks stay resilient while streaming margins expand, the valuation case gets easier; if travel patterns soften and sports costs keep rising, Disney’s “sum of parts” argument has to do more of the lifting.

What to Watch: The next catalyst is succession: Disney’s board is meeting this week and could vote on a successor to Bob Iger, with Josh D'Amaro and Dana Walden viewed as leading contenders (per CNBC’s reporting). The quarter beat; the market’s waiting for the cast list.
Source: cnbc.com

5. Florida’s Freeze Hits Oranges and Electricity at the Same Time

The News: A rare Arctic blast pushed Florida temperatures below the 28°F citrus-damage threshold over Feb. 1–2, 2026, with Jacksonville hitting 22°F and Orlando 24°F on Feb. 1 (both daily records), as freeze warnings covered the state. Meteorologist Jim Roemer said the cold caused “significant damage” to remaining oranges still being picked in central Florida after key areas stayed below 28°F for hours. The cold also strained power supply: Duke Energy asked Florida customers to cut usage during morning peak demand on Feb. 2 to help protect the grid.

Why It Matters: This is the kind of weather shock that can show up at the grocery store. Florida’s citrus industry entered the 2025–26 season already expecting about 12 million boxes—the smallest orange crop in nearly a century—so additional freeze damage can tighten supply further and raise the odds of higher prices for juice and fresh fruit. On the power side, unusually high winter heating demand in a warm-weather state is a stress test: if utilities have to lean on conservation requests more often, it’s a reminder that extreme-weather planning isn’t just a summer-hurricane problem anymore.

What to Watch: Watch for a USDA disaster declaration request from Florida agriculture officials and any updated crop-loss estimates once groves are assessed over the next couple of weeks (freeze damage can reveal itself slowly). Florida growers can handle heat; just not the ice.
Source: news.bloomberglaw.com

1. Artemis II Gets Real: Moon Crew Readies

The News: NASA is in final prep for Artemis II, the first crewed lunar mission since 1972, after rolling the Space Launch System rocket to Pad 39B at Kennedy Space Center and running through the last major test steps ahead of launch. NASA says the first potential launch opportunity is no earlier than Feb. 8, 2026, after cold-weather delays pushed the wet dress rehearsal (full fueling test) to Feb. 2 and wiped out earlier launch dates. The four-person crew—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—is slated for a 10-day flyby that swings around the Moon’s far side about 5,000 miles above the surface and reaches roughly 250,000 miles from Earth.

Why It Matters: This is a high-stakes systems test for deep-space travel—life support, navigation, comms, and reentry—before NASA bets bigger on a lunar landing. For regular humans (and taxpayers), Artemis II is the “prove it works with people onboard” mission that determines whether the 2028 lunar-return target stays plausible or slips again. It’s also a reality check on the space supply chain: government-led programs drive multi-year demand for aerospace manufacturing and ground ops, but one technical snag can reshuffle timelines, budgets, and who gets paid when.

What to Watch: The next catalyst is the wet dress rehearsal outcome and NASA’s go/no-go for an actual launch date, since NASA has said it won’t set the date until the rehearsal data is reviewed and watch the launch on NASA’s YouTube channel.
Source: nasa.com

2. Venezuela’s Oil Flows Bounce Back

The News: Venezuela exported about 800,000 bpd in January 2026, up from roughly 498,000 bpd in December, after the United States moved to supervise the country’s oil sales following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. The U.S. was the biggest destination at about 284,000 bpd, and Chevron more than doubled shipments to roughly 220,000 bpd from about 99,000 bpd.

Why It Matters: More Venezuelan barrels into the Atlantic Basin can matter at the margin—especially for refineries that like heavy, sour crude (think U.S. Gulf Coast). For consumers, this is not “gas gets cheap overnight,” but extra supply can help reduce price spikes if inventories are tight or disruptions hit elsewhere. For investors, the signal is bigger than the barrels: the U.S. just tied oil flows to geopolitics and sanctions structure, creating a new set of winners (licensed traders/refiners) and risks (policy reversals, legal disputes, counter-sanctions). The market will treat Venezuela less like a normal producer and more like a policy-driven supply valve.

What to Watch: Watch how fast inventories clear and whether exports keep rising into March 2026, when Chevron is expected to lift shipments again as stockpiles are drawn down. In oil, “permitted” is usually followed by “for now.”
Source: reuters.com

3. Saudi Arabia Opens Stock Market to All Foreign Investors

The News: Saudi Arabia’s market regulator, the Capital Market Authority, said rule changes announced Jan. 6, 2026 took effect Feb. 1, 2026, letting all categories of foreign investors buy Saudi-listed shares directly—scrapping the Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) gatekeeping framework that’s been in place since 2015 and ending the prior swap-based access workaround. Ownership limits still apply: non-resident foreigners generally can’t own 10%+ of a listed company, and total foreign ownership is capped at 49% (with separate treatment for “strategic” investors). By Q3 2025, international investors already held more than SAR 590 billion (about $157 billion) in Saudi equities, per the CMA.

Why It Matters: This is a big “make it easier to buy us” move—especially for global funds and smaller investors who didn’t want to navigate QFI paperwork or synthetic exposure. For everyday investors, broader access can mean better liquidity and tighter spreads over time, and it supports the Kingdom’s push to be treated like a core emerging-market allocation rather than a special case. For companies and the market itself, more potential foreign participation can lower the cost of capital—though the 10%/49% caps mean this is an opening, not a free-for-all.

What to Watch: Watch whether foreign inflows show up in size in H2 2026 (often the realistic timeline for mandate changes). Also watch the market handles volatility around geopolitics and oil: the market opened wider on Feb. 1, 2026, and still finished down 1.9% that day amid broader risk jitters. Markets can be open and still be moody.
Source: zawya.com

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