Good Afternoon. Oil punched through $100 again, the Dow cratered ~600 points, and Iran's new supreme leader used his very first public statement to promise the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. So much for diplomacy. Meanwhile, private credit is starting to crack -- Morgan Stanley just capped withdrawals on an $8 billion fund -- and Atlassian axed 1,600 jobs to go all-in on AI. It's one of those days where every headline makes you want to check your portfolio... and then immediately close the app.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Oil Blasts Back Above $100 After Trump Says "Finishing the Job" Matters More Than Cheap Gas

The News: Brent crude surged 9.2% to settle at $100.46 per barrel on Thursday -- its largest single-day gain since 2020 -- after President Trump said preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons takes priority over oil price stability. WTI climbed roughly 8.5% to ~$95/barrel. The spike came despite the IEA's record 400-million-barrel reserve release announced just yesterday.

Why It Matters: That reserve release was supposed to be the fire extinguisher. Instead, oil shrugged it off and ran straight back to triple digits. For investors, the message is clear: supply-side interventions can't offset a physical blockade of the world's most critical oil chokepoint. For consumers, $4+ gas is now a matter of when, not if. Evercore ISI estimates that sustained $100 oil erases the benefit of Trump's 2025 tax cuts for 70% of American households.

What to Watch: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. Navy is "not yet prepared" to escort tankers through Hormuz but expects that capability by end of March. That timeline is the market's next major catalyst.

Source: wsj.com

2. Morgan Stanley Caps Withdrawals on Its $8 Billion Private Credit Fund -- and the Dominoes Are Wobbling

The News: Morgan Stanley restricted redemptions on its North Haven Private Income Fund after investors sought to pull almost 11% of outstanding shares, according to an SEC filing. The bank honored only 5% -- roughly $169 million of the total requested -- in line with its fund documents. It's the latest in a string of private credit vehicles gating withdrawals amid rising investor unease.

Why It Matters: Private credit has been Wall Street's golden child for three years -- promising equity-like returns with bond-like stability. That story is cracking. When funds can't meet redemption requests, it's a liquidity problem, and liquidity problems have a nasty habit of metastasizing. Deutsche Bank disclosed $30 billion in private credit exposure on Thursday and promptly dropped 5.6%. For investors, the question isn't whether private credit has losses -- it's whether the exits are wide enough when everyone tries to leave at once.

What to Watch: Whether other major private credit funds follow with redemption caps. Blackstone, Blue Owl, KKR, and Apollo all fell 1-3% on Thursday in sympathy.

Source: reuters.com

3. Atlassian Cuts 1,600 Jobs to Go All-In on AI -- Stock Jumps 4%

The News: Atlassian, the maker of Jira and Confluence, announced it will lay off approximately 10% of its workforce -- about 1,600 employees -- to redirect resources toward artificial intelligence and enterprise sales. CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes called it "self-funding further investment in AI." The company expects $225-$236 million in pre-tax restructuring charges. Shares rose 4% in after-hours trading.

Why It Matters: Atlassian's stock has dropped 84% from its 2021 peak as AI tools like Anthropic's Claude Cowork threaten traditional software collaboration products. The layoffs are an admission that the old business model needs radical surgery. Wall Street rewarded the cuts because investors see restructuring as a path to profitability, not a sign of weakness. For the broader tech sector, it's another data point: AI isn't just creating jobs, it's eliminating them -- even at companies that make productivity software.

What to Watch: Atlassian's next earnings call for details on how AI product revenue (Rovo has 5M+ monthly active users) offsets the workforce reduction.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

4. Bumble Pops 21% on a Surprise Earnings Beat -- Love Finds a Way

The News: Bumble reported Q4 revenue of $224.2 million, beating the $221.7 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA also topping expectations. First-quarter EBITDA guidance came in above analyst forecasts. The stock surged approximately 21% on Thursday -- a rare bright spot in a sea of red -- though shares remain down 43% over the past year.

Why It Matters: Bumble has been a cautionary tale about what happens when a one-trick-pony dating app faces saturated markets and Tinder's dominance. Today's beat suggests management's cost-cutting and product refresh (including AI-powered matching features) might actually be working. For investors, a 21% pop on a stock trading at $2.85 is a reminder that beaten-down names can still deliver sharp bounces -- but one good quarter doesn't fix a 43% annual decline.

What to Watch: Q1 revenue guidance of $209-$213 million is essentially flat. Bumble needs to prove this isn't just a cost-cut sugar high but real user growth.

Source: investing.com

5. Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.11% as the War Premium Hits Housing

The News: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.11% this week, up from 6.00% last week, according to Freddie Mac's Thursday survey. The increase was driven by rising Treasury yields tied to oil-fueled inflation fears and a lackluster bond auction. Despite the uptick, existing-home sales managed a 1.7% increase in February, and purchase applications also ticked up this week.

Why It Matters: Here's the irony: rates are still down more than half a percentage point from this time last year, and buyers are cautiously returning to the market during spring season. But if oil stays at $100 and the Fed shelves rate cuts, 6.11% could be the floor, not the ceiling. For homebuyers, the math is getting harder -- higher rates on top of prices that haven't come down. For the housing market, the spring thaw might get a cold shower.

What to Watch: Tomorrow's PCE inflation data. If it runs hot, expect mortgage rates to push toward 6.25% next week.

Source: foxbusiness.com

1. Iran's New Supreme Leader Delivers First Statement: "The Strait Will Remain Closed"

The News: Iran's state media broadcast on Thursday the first public statement attributed to new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei -- the son of Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the war's opening day. The statement vowed to continue leveraging Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz and pledged ongoing attacks on targets in Gulf Arab nations. Seven ships have been attacked in the strait over the past 24 hours.

Why It Matters: This is the statement the oil market feared most. A new leader consolidating power by being more hawkish than his predecessor is Geopolitics 101 -- and it slams the door on any near-term diplomatic resolution. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil. As long as Khamenei the younger treats it as a bargaining chip, oil has a floor north of $90. For investors, energy Secretary Wright's admission that Navy escorts won't be ready until end of March means at least two more weeks of maximum uncertainty.

What to Watch: Whether the U.S. or allies attempt to force the strait open militarily, or if backchannel negotiations emerge. The new supreme leader's posture will define the next phase of this conflict.

Source: cbsnews.com

2. Iraq Suspends Oil Terminal Operations After Two Tankers Attacked

The News: Two oil tankers -- the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and Malta-flagged Zefyros -- were attacked in Iraqi waters on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO suspended all oil terminal activity in response. Separately, Oman temporarily evacuated a key export hub, and Iran launched strikes on targets in Dubai and Kuwait, widening the conflict beyond the strait itself.

Why It Matters: This is an escalation beyond Hormuz. Iraq isn't Iran -- it's a U.S. ally and OPEC's second-largest producer. Shutting down Iraqi oil terminals removes roughly 3.5 million barrels/day from the market on top of the Hormuz disruption. For investors, the war is now threatening oil infrastructure across the entire Gulf, not just one chokepoint. The IEA's reserves can't plug a gap this wide for long.

What to Watch: Whether Iraq's terminals reopen quickly or if this becomes a sustained disruption. Any further attacks on Saudi, UAE, or Kuwaiti export infrastructure could push Brent well beyond $110.

Source: bloomberg.com

3. India's Sensex Crashes 829 Points as the Oil Shock Hammers Asia's Biggest Energy Importer

The News: India's benchmark Sensex index tumbled 829 points (0.7%) on Thursday as surging crude oil prices pummeled Asia's third-largest economy. The Indian rupee also fell. Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, with Coal India surging 5.4% and NTPC gaining 3%. Auto stocks were crushed -- Mahindra & Mahindra dropped 3.7%, and Maruti Suzuki fell 2.8%. Renewable energy stocks bucked the trend, rallying up to 14%.

Why It Matters: India imports over 85% of its crude oil, making it one of the most exposed major economies to a sustained price shock. Every $10/barrel increase in oil adds roughly 0.4% to India's fiscal deficit and feeds directly into consumer inflation. The rotation into renewables and energy producers -- and out of everything else -- mirrors what's happening in U.S. markets. For global investors, India was supposed to be the growth story of 2026. At $100 oil, that narrative needs serious revision.

What to Watch: The Reserve Bank of India's next policy meeting and whether they're forced to pause rate cuts -- or even hike -- to defend the rupee and fight imported inflation.

Source: moneycontrol.com

Q: How does a scientist freshen her breath?

A: With experi-mints.

The spread of financial distress from one institution, market, or economy to others, often through interconnected exposures, investor panic, or loss of confidence -- like dominoes falling across the system.

"When Morgan Stanley capped withdrawals on its private credit fund, analysts warned of potential contagion spreading to other alternative investment vehicles."

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