Good Afternoon. Everyone wants the weekend. Stocks are clawing back most of yesterday's hangover — the S&P 500 is up ~0.75% and the Nasdaq is up ~1.5% — after Intel exploded ~20% on a blowout Q1 that finally puts numbers behind the foundry turnaround thesis. Oil is still sticky above $95, Brent is hanging on at $105, and the eurozone just released its first contractionary PMI since late 2024 as the Iran war chews into service-sector demand.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Intel Soars on a Blowout Q1 — Revenue $13.58B vs. $12.42B and a Q2 Guide That Crushes the Consensus

The News: Intel reported Q1 2026 revenue of $13.58 billion versus the $12.42 billion consensus, with adjusted EPS of $0.29 shredding the $0.01 Wall Street was penciling in. Data Center and AI revenue came in at $5.1 billion (vs. $4.41B expected), Client Computing hit $7.7 billion (vs. $7.1B), and management guided Q2 revenue to $13.8-$14.8 billion — well above the $13.03 billion analysts were modeling — with adjusted EPS at $0.20 vs. the $0.07 estimate. Shares are up 16% Friday, extending the YTD rally to 77%.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the single most important semi print of the cycle so far because it's the first real data point that Lip-Bu Tan's foundry-and-AI restructuring is starting to produce numbers, not just narrative. A $5.1B data center revenue line means the AI capex boom has officially broadened beyond Nvidia — and when AI spending broadens, the whole complex rerates. For consumers, this matters because it signals that the U.S. chip sovereignty push is finally economically viable, which has national-security and jobs implications that run well beyond the stock price.

What to Watch: Intel's 18A foundry customer pipeline. Tan has hinted at three marquee wins by year-end. If even one of them is a top-tier hyperscaler, Intel adds another 15-20% from here and the U.S. foundry thesis graduates to consensus. (CNBC)

2. Consumer Sentiment Collapses to Record Low 52.2 With Inflation Expectations Spiking to 4.4%

The News: The University of Michigan's final April consumer sentiment reading fell to 52.2 (down from 55.8 in March and 9% below year-ago levels), with current economic conditions at 59.8 (down 5.9% m/m) and the expectations subindex at 47.3. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.4% from 3.9%, and the five-year gauge climbed to 3.6%. The print is among the weakest readings in the 80-year history of the survey.

Why It Matters: For investors, a sentiment collapse of this magnitude historically leads to a consumer-spending slowdown with a 60-90 day lag — meaning Q2 retail, discretionary, and restaurant earnings will start disappointing in July. For the Fed, this is a dangerous combination: a consumer that feels terrible but also expects much higher inflation puts Powell in a vice between cutting to support growth and holding to anchor expectations. For consumers, the data confirms what anyone filling up their tank already knew — real-world inflation is back, and the ceasefire hasn't helped yet.

What to Watch: Next Friday's April jobs report. If nonfarm payrolls come in under 100K with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%, the Fed's July cut odds move from 55% to near 80% overnight. (Trading Economics)

3. Colgate Misses on Revenue as Latin America Volumes Slip

The News: Colgate-Palmolive reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.85 (in line) but revenue of $4.78 billion missed the $4.82 billion estimate, with organic sales up just 1.5% (below the 2.3% expected). Latin America volumes declined 2.1% as pricing moves hit consumer demand in Mexico and Brazil, and management trimmed full-year organic sales guidance to "2-4%" from "3-5%." The stock is down roughly 3% midday, pulling Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark along for the ride.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the first real crack in the consumer staples "safe haven" trade that has been bid up aggressively this quarter as a ballast against Iran-war volatility. Staples are now trading at 24x forward — their highest premium to the market in two decades — and any hint of volume weakness punches a very big hole in that multiple. For consumers, Colgate's management commentary that "price elasticity has finally broken" in Latin America is the kind of signal that shows up in Walmart's P&L 1-2 quarters later.

What to Watch: P&G earnings next Wednesday. If organic sales come in at the low end of guidance and pricing shows any sign of having peaked, the staples derate accelerates and the "crowded safe haven" trade starts looking like 1999's defensive trap. (CNBC Live)

4. Oil Holds Above $95 as Brent Settles at $105

The News: Brent crude closed Thursday at $105.07 a barrel and WTI settled at $95.85, with both benchmarks holding most of the week's gains into Friday trade. Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to step up mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to destroy "any Iranian small boats in the way," even as the Hormuz blockade enters its third week. Brent is up $14.69 for the week — roughly 16% — and traders are pricing a structural risk premium of $12-15 per barrel for as long as the blockade holds.

Why It Matters: For investors, oil at $95-$105 for an extended period is a meaningful drag on S&P 500 margins — consensus earnings models are built on $75-85 oil, and every week above $100 is roughly 50 basis points off full-year S&P 500 earnings growth. For consumers, AAA is now showing the national average gas price back above $3.95 a gallon, up 32 cents in three weeks. Airlines, chemicals, and delivery companies are the ones getting squeezed first. For energy producers, this is a gift — Exxon, Chevron, and Occidental are all up 4-6% on the week.

What to Watch: The OPEC+ meeting on May 5. If Saudi Arabia formally raises its production ceiling by 500K b/d to offset the Iran outages, Brent falls $8 overnight. If OPEC+ stays pat, $110 Brent by Memorial Day is the base case. (Kore Energy)

5. Phillips 66 Beats on Refining Margins

The News: Phillips 66 reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.83 (well above the $2.05 consensus) as refining margins expanded sharply on the back of higher crack spreads and tightening global gasoline inventories. Refining segment adjusted pre-tax income was $1.35 billion (vs. $420 million expected), with crude utilization at 98% and clean product yield of 87%. The company increased its quarterly dividend by 4% to $1.25 per share. Shares are up 5% Friday, leading a rally in Valero (+4%) and Marathon Petroleum (+3%).

Why It Matters: For investors, refiners are the textbook "second-order beneficiary" of the Iran war — they make money on the spread between oil they buy and products they sell, and that spread is widest when crude is high but gasoline demand is holding. This print confirms the thesis is working at the P&L level, not just the futures curve. For consumers, strong refiner earnings are a flashing warning sign that pump prices have more room to rise before they stabilize — refiners usually pass through costs with a 2-4 week lag. For the energy complex, this cements the divergence between the commodity producers and the midstream/downstream players.

What to Watch: Phillips 66's Q2 outlook commentary on the 8am ET call. If they guide crack spreads to widen further into the summer driving season, the refining trade has another 10-15% in it. If they warn about demand destruction above $4.00 gasoline, the group tops out here. (Phillips 66 IR)

6. Eurozone Private Sector Falls Into Contraction for First Time in 16 Months as Iran War Bites

The News: The flash Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 48.6 in April from 50.7 in March — the first contraction in 16 months and a 17-month low. The Services PMI crashed to 47.4 (a 62-month low) while Manufacturing PMI ticked up to a 47-month high of 52.2, creating the sharpest divergence between sectors since the pandemic. Germany posted its first activity decline in 11 months. Input costs and output prices both accelerated sharply, with the Services Prices Charged index hitting a 9-month high.

Why It Matters: For investors, the eurozone is now officially in stagflation — contracting activity with rising prices — which is the worst combination for ECB policy, European bank P&L, and any consumer discretionary that depends on confident spending. For the ECB, this puts the June meeting firmly in play for a 25-basis-point cut, but with prices accelerating, they risk pouring gasoline on the inflation side. For U.S. multinationals, Europe is ~25% of foreign S&P revenues, and a euro-area recession drags directly through into Q2 and Q3 earnings.

What to Watch: The ECB's June 5 meeting and Lagarde's press conference. If she signals a July cut while inflation is still above target, the euro falls 2-3% in a week, making U.S. dollar earnings for European exposures even harder. (S&P Global Flash PMI)

7. Trump Extends Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire by Three Weeks

The News: President Trump announced Thursday night that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire — which was set to expire Monday — by an additional three weeks. The decision came after a White House meeting with senior Israeli and Lebanese officials, and Trump framed it as a precondition for restarting Iran negotiations. The extension pushes the Hezbollah-Israel standoff out to mid-May, reducing the risk of a second-front escalation while the U.S.-Iran blockade negotiation continues.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the kind of "remove a tail risk" event that typically adds 20-40 bps to risk assets over a week — and the VIX under 18 today reflects that. For oil, it's meaningful because a Hezbollah-Israel flare-up is the single most likely catalyst for a Hormuz shooting incident, and locking that down reduces the left-tail scenario. For geopolitics, Trump is clearly trying to consolidate the regional cease-fires before forcing Iran to the table on his terms.

What to Watch: Whether Hezbollah publicly endorses the extension. The Lebanese government agreed, but Hezbollah has historically operated with significant autonomy. If they push back in the next 72 hours, the extension is cosmetic rather than real. (CNBC)

8. Oil Tanker Seizures Resume Near Hormuz as Iran Retaliates Against U.S. Navy Boarding Action

The News: The U.S. Navy boarded an oil tanker carrying Iranian fuel overnight, and Iran's IRGC responded by seizing two additional commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area. Tanker-tracker Kpler shows transit volumes still running about 60% of pre-crisis levels, but war-risk insurance premiums have jumped another 20% to roughly $4 million per voyage. Iran's parliament speaker said Tehran will not re-enter negotiations until the U.S. lifts the naval blockade of Iranian ports, deepening the standoff.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the exact opposite of the progress narrative — Iran is matching every U.S. naval move with its own interdiction, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that keeps oil prices structurally elevated. For global LNG flows (Qatar, UAE), every day the Hormuz uncertainty persists is another day of spot premiums and deferred long-term contracts. For the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track, the blockade has clearly become the single issue blocking progress — and Trump has shown zero willingness to lift it.

What to Watch: Whether the U.S. Navy carries out its threatened "shoot-and-destroy" mandate against Iranian small boats. One live-fire incident in the strait sends Brent to $115 and the VIX to 25 in the span of a single session. (CNBC / Bloomberg Middle East)

Q: What do you call a group of cows playing instruments?

A: A moo-sical band.

The maximum annual percentage that a retiree can withdraw from their portfolio in the first year of retirement — typically around 4% in traditional planning — without running out of money over a 30-year horizon, adjusted each subsequent year for inflation.

Usage: "After a week like this one — stocks grinding back to records but oil sticking at $105 and consumer sentiment at a record low — the classic 4% safe withdrawal rate starts looking less like a rule and more like a rough suggestion."

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