Good Afternoon. If it feels like your finances are being priced off three inputs, housing, chips, and government policy, you’re not imagining it. Intel’s comeback is reviving the manufacturing narrative, while new ideas in housing and defense spending could ripple into borrowing costs, jobs, and budgets. The only thing not in a comeback mood: anyone trying to hire electricians. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Intel Hit a New High as “18A” Becomes a Real Product

The News: Intel shares hit a new 52-week high on Jan. 16, 2026, touching above $49 as investors extended a CES-driven rally around its Panther Lake / Core Ultra Series 3 launch. Intel is now up 120% over the last year. Momentum also got a boost from a Jan. 13 KeyBanc upgrade to Overweight with a $60 price target, citing checks that Intel’s 2026 server CPU capacity is largely sold out and that the company could raise prices 10%–15% in a tight supply-demand setup.

Why It Matters: This move is less about a single processor launch and more about Intel’s re-rating over the past year signaling investors are finally paying for “manufacturing turnaround” instead of discounting it as a promise. That matters beyond Intel holders. A healthier Intel can reshape pricing and supply in PCs and servers, push rivals to compete harder on performance-per-watt, and if 18A ramps cleanly add another credible source of leading-edge capacity outside Taiwan. In other words: a comeback story can turn into real leverage in the semiconductor supply chain.

What to Watch: The market has already handed Intel the “proof it” valuation, now it needs “prove it” numbers. The next catalyst is Intel’s Q4 2025 earnings on Jan. 22, 2026, where investors will look for hard evidence that the last 12 months of stock gains are matched by execution: 18A ramp/yields, margins, server availability, and firm foundry traction (not just chatter). If guidance confirms demand strength and a smoother manufacturing curve, the rally can extend; if not, this kind of comeback trade tends to give back fast. Turning around a chip giant is a marathon, Wall Street still prefers 40-yard dashes.
Source: barrons.com

2. Tesla Opens First Lithium Refinery in North America

The News: Tesla said its lithium refinery near Corpus Christi, Texas is now operational, a $1+ billion project on a 1,200+ acre site designed to turn spodumene ore into battery-grade lithium hydroxide, a key EV and energy-storage input. Tesla has said the facility targets output equivalent to about 50 GWh of battery-grade lithium per year, enough for roughly 1 million EVs depending on pack size. The timing is notable: lithium prices have been rising again since mid-2025 lows, with Reuters reporting China lithium prices up 167% from the prior low and spiking 9% on Jan. 12, 2026.

Why It Matters: “More domestic refining” is shorthand for fewer battery supply-chain choke points, helpful for EV pricing and for the grid batteries utilities are buying to keep power more reliable. For Tesla, refining in-house is a hedge against lithium price whiplash and a way to de-risk a battery input that can swing project economics fast. It also supports Tesla’s rapidly growing Energy business: the company deployed a record 14.2 GWh of energy storage in Q4 2025, where input costs and availability matter as much as vehicle margins.

What to Watch: Watch for evidence the refinery is producing at meaningful scale, output volumes and qualification timelines. Also keep an eye on lithium pricing into mid-2026: if the market tightens, this looks prescient; if oversupply returns, the payoff shifts from cost savings to supply security.
Source: electrek.co

3. White House Floats 401(k) Down-Payment Plan

The News: The Trump administration plans to unveil a proposal next week that would let Americans use 401(k) retirement savings for home down payments, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Jan. 16, 2026. Hassett said President Trump will present details at the World Economic Forum in Davos and that the White House is still working through mechanics meant to avoid damaging long-term retirement security. Under current rules, most 401(k) withdrawals before age 59½ trigger ordinary income taxes plus a 10% early-withdrawal penalty unless an exception applies; the IRS does allow certain exceptions, but there’s no broad, standard “first-time home purchase” carve-out for 401(k)s.

Why It Matters: For would-be buyers, the pitch is simple: down payments are the biggest speed bump, and tapping retirement cash could get more people into homes sooner. The risk is also simple: pulling money out early can shrink retirement balances because you lose years of compounding and it can create a “now you own a house, but you’re poorer at 65” tradeoff. For the housing market, this is demand stimulus in a supply-constrained world; if more buyers show up without more homes, prices can rise, which doesn’t exactly solve affordability.

What to Watch: Watch for the fine print in Davos: will this be a penalty waiver, a loan-like mechanism, or something more exotic like Hassett’s “home equity back into the 401(k)” concept and does it require Congress to change tax law. Also watch the market reaction in housing and mortgage names: if traders read this as “more buyers, same supply,” the affordability optics could collide with price reality. Every housing fix eventually meets the inventory problem.
Source: reuters.com

4. Pentagon Widens “Golden Dome” Vendor Pool

The News: The Missile Defense Agency added 340 more companies on to its Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) contract vehicle, a 10-year IDIQ framework with a ceiling of $151 billion tied to the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile-defense push. The contract doesn’t obligate money at award, funding comes later via competed task orders, covering areas like AI/ML for threat detection, digital engineering, and open-architecture integration.

Why It Matters: For consumers, this is less “sci-fi dome” and more federal spending reality: if Golden Dome ramps, it can mean more defense outlays, more high-skilled contracting jobs, and more demand for components that overlap with commercial tech (sensors, satellites, networking, compute). The crowded vendor list also hints at how the Pentagon wants to buy: faster competitions across many specialty suppliers instead of one monolithic prime doing everything.

What to Watch: Watch for the first meaningful task orders and who wins them, those awards will show which technologies the Pentagon is prioritizing (space-based sensors, command-and-control integration, directed energy, interceptors) and how quickly dollars move from “ceiling” to “obligated.”
Source: defenseone.com

5. BlackRock Warns Labor Shortage May Derail $85T Infrastructure Boom

The News: BlackRock warned in a report that a shortage of skilled trade workers could bottleneck what it frames as an $85 trillion global infrastructure investment wave over the next 15 years, driven by AI data centers, grid upgrades, and broader modernization. The report highlights an aging pipeline, about 70% of electrical supervisors are baby boomers, with nearly one-fifth of construction workers 55+ and a median worker age of 42. In parallel, Associated Builders and Contractors estimates the U.S. construction industry must add 349,000 net new workers in 2026, rising to 456,000 in 2027, to meet demand.

Why It Matters: Labor scarcity in the trades often shows up as higher quotes and longer wait times for homebuilding, renovations, HVAC repairs, and electrical work, pushing housing and maintenance costs up even when materials prices cool. Fewer electricians and technicians can delay data centers and grid interconnections, raising project costs and potentially slowing capacity additions that keep power reliable (and bills from spiking). For investors, this is an inflation-meets-capex story: wages in skilled trades can climb faster than the overall labor market, reshaping margins for builders, utilities, and hyperscalers funding the buildout.

What to Watch: Watch whether workforce programs scale fast enough to matter. Microsoft announced a new partnership with North America’s Building Trades Unions to strengthen apprenticeships where data centers are being built, and Google has backed an effort to train 100,000 electrical workers and 30,000 apprentices. Construction doesn’t run on press releases; it runs on people who can do the work.
Source: axios.com

1. EU Doubles Down on Google Ad Tech Case

The News: The European Commission published a 363-page provisional version of its Google ad tech decision, reiterating that Alphabet’s vertically integrated stack created conflicts of interest that may require structural remedies, potentially forcing Google to sell parts of its ad tech business. The publication reinforces the Commission’s €2.95 billion ($3.4 billion) fine announced in September 2025 and lays out dominance findings including ~91% share in publisher ad servers (via DoubleClick for Publishers) and ~60–70% in ad exchanges (via AdX). Google has pushed for behavioral changes instead of divestitures and has appealed the decision.

Why It Matters: If auctions are tilted, publishers can earn less per ad impression, which often shows up as more paywalls, more aggressive ads, and higher subscription prices to make up the gap. For advertisers, the risk is higher “take rates” and less transparent auctions, costs that can flow into retail pricing and customer-acquisition budgets. For investors, a forced split of Ad Manager/AdX would be one of Europe’s most consequential tech remedies in years, potentially reshaping how money moves across the open web and pressuring margins in a major Alphabet profit center.

What to Watch: The Commission’s response to Google’s November 13, 2025 compliance proposal, Brussels has warned that as long as the structural conflicts remain, Google’s incentives to self-preference don’t go away. Also watch the parallel U.S. track: after Judge Leonie Brinkema found Google liable in April 2025, remedies are still pending, with the DOJ seeking major changes including divestiture of AdX. The fix may be “sell something,” but the calendar is “litigate everything.”
Source: ppcland.com

2. Ships Head Back to the Red Sea

The News: Major container carriers are starting to route ships back through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, a move that analysts expect to add capacity and pressure freight rates in 2026. Maersk said on Jan. 15, 2026 its MECL service (Middle East/India to the U.S. East Coast) will resume trans-Suez routing this month, with the first westbound voyage set to depart Salalah, Oman, on Jan. 26, a key step after more than two years of diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Reuters noted Maersk shares fell more than 5% on the news, reflecting expectations for lower rates as the shorter route frees up ships.

Why It Matters: For consumers, cheaper ocean freight is one of the few cost lines that can actually flow through to everyday goods, think furniture, apparel, toys, and electronics, because shipping is a real input cost, not a rounding error. For retailers and manufacturers, shorter transit times can mean fewer “just-in-case” inventories and less cash tied up floating on the ocean. For investors, it’s the opposite: the Cape detours effectively absorbed capacity; returning to Suez releases it back into an already oversupplied market, which is why analysts warn rates can fall quickly once enough services switch back. (A reopening is great for commerce, just not always for shipping margins.)

What to Watch: How broadly the return spreads beyond one-off services and how insurers price the risk. On Jan. 16, 2026, Germany’s auto industry group said there are still open questions, including insurance, before fully resuming Suez transits, a reminder that “route reopened” isn’t the same as “route normalized.”
Source: wsj.com

3. China Dials Down Treasuries to 2008 Levels

The News: China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion in November 2025, the lowest level since September 2008, according to U.S. Treasury data. Total foreign holdings, meanwhile, hit a record $9.355 trillion. Japan stayed the top holder at $1.202 trillion, and the U.K. rose to $888.5 billion, while China slipped to third. Reuters noted China’s position is down about 10% since early 2025 and roughly half its ~$1.32 trillion peak in November 2013.

Why It Matters: For U.S. consumers and borrowers, the immediate risk isn’t “China sells, rates spike,” because global demand for Treasuries is still strong, but sustained official selling can matter at the margins if it pushes yields higher over time (mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards tend to follow). The bigger signal is portfolio geopolitics: analysts tie China’s trimming to diversification and concerns around U.S. policy uncertainty, including headlines around pressure on Fed independence. In parallel, China has been adding gold: Reuters reported holdings of 74.15 million troy ounces at end-December 2025, extending a 14-month buying streak.

What to Watch: The next TIC releases for whether China’s selling pace accelerates (it has been a net seller for nine straight months through November, per Barron’s) and whether other buyers keep offsetting it.
Source: reuters.com

Q: How does the ocean say hi?

A: It waves.

✅ Enjoy the Long Weekend: Be sure to celebrate MLK’s legacy and remember to watch his famous I Have a Dream speech.

We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.

Upgrade Your Inbox: Join hundreds of thousands of readers getting smart, no-BS insights from today’s fastest-growing finance, investing, and tech newsletters—all free in one bundle. Grab it here.

Note: Newsletter lineup rotates regularly to highlight what readers love most.

The difference between what was planned and what actually occurred in a project, often measured in terms of cost, time, or scope.

“Schedule variance indicated the project was two weeks behind the planned timeline.”

Love reading Afternoon Finance?
Click here to share with your friends and family. ✈️