Good Afternoon. Tariffs cooled, stocks rallied, retail investors hit “buy,” and SpaceX called in the bankers. Let’s get into it.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Tariff U-Turn Lifts Stocks, Gold Hits a New High

The News: Global markets rallied after President Trump backed off tariff threats tied to Greenland, extending a relief move that began Wednesday. Gold pushed to a fresh record above $4,900/oz, while oil slid about 2%. Data helped the mood: Q3 GDP was revised up to 4.4% annualized (from 4.3%), and initial jobless claims came in at 200,000, below expectations. Earnings were mixed as Procter & Gamble shares rose despite a trimmed outlook.

Why It Matters: Easing tariff fears reduce the risk of near-term price spikes on imported goods, even as gold’s surge signals persistent demand for inflation and uncertainty hedges. The rally shows how quickly risk can reprice when policy threats retreat but the jump in gold alongside higher stocks hints at hedging, not all-clear. Corporate results reinforce the split economy: staples can rally on resilience even while cutting guidance, while tech earnings (starting with Intel) will test whether growth expectations still justify premium valuations after the whiplash.

What to Watch: Watch Europe’s response,EU leaders are meeting in Brussels as Denmark reiterates sovereignty is non-negotiable and whether tariff language stays cooled. If it heats up again, expect more bumps in the road.
Source: wsj.com

2. Main Street Bought the Dip

The News: Retail investors poured $12.9B into U.S. equities this week, according to JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain, even as tariff-driven volatility from the Greenland dispute rattled markets; Jain said Jan. 20, 2026 was the third-largest single-day retail buying burst in the past year. The buying spree came as stocks slid hard on trade-threat headlines before rebounding a day later when Trump walked back the tariff threat and markets rallied. Meanwhile, retail favorites stayed retail-favorite: Nvidia pulled ~$706M of net retail inflows over the past five days, per Vanda Research data cited by Yahoo Finance.

Why It Matters: For everyday investors, this is the “dip-buying muscle memory” trade that 2025 rewarded buying pullbacks, and a lot of portfolios are now conditioned to treat scary headlines like clearance stickers. The bigger signal is positioning: if institutions keep de-risking during policy-driven swings while retail keeps catching falling knives, price action can get choppy fast especially in the same mega-cap names everyone already owns.

What to Watch: Watch whether retail inflows persist if volatility lasts longer than a news cycle—particularly around any renewed tariff deadlines or follow-through from Europe, which would test the “buy first, ask questions later” reflex. Also watch the rate backdrop: if bond yields keep rising during equity drawdowns, dips stop feeling like bargains and start feeling like higher monthly payments. One way or another, the market is always voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.
Source: cnbc.com

3. Netflix Wants to Be Your New Doomscroll

The News: Netflix said it’s expanding into video podcasts and will roll out a redesigned mobile app later in 2026—both aimed at grabbing more daily “open-the-app” time from YouTube and short-form social video. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos framed video podcasts as a “modern talk show” ecosystem with “hundreds” of shows (not one marquee franchise), while Co-CEO Greg Peters said the app overhaul will more deeply integrate vertical video feeds Netflix has been testing since May 2025. The podcast rollout includes licensed hits and originals: The Wrap reported 34 licensed and original podcasts are slated for January, with Netflix targeting 50–75 original podcast series by the end of 2026.

Why It Matters: This is Netflix trying to become a larger daily habit, not just a “Friday night decision.” Which could mean more snackable content, more time-in-app, and (eventually) more ads in more places. For investors, it’s a clear monetization play: Netflix said 2025 revenue was $45.2B (+16% YoY) and it ended Q4 with 325M paid memberships, while advertising revenue hit about $1.5B in 2025 and is expected to roughly double again to about $3B in 2026. Turning podcasts + vertical clips into a smoother funnel from “scroll” → “play” → “subscribe/upgrade” is how you defend pricing power without needing a new mega-series every week.

What to Watch: Watch Netflix’s 2026 product cadence: the mobile redesign timing (Netflix only said “later in 2026”) and whether vertical feeds expand beyond show/movie promos into podcasts and other formats. On the dollars, the next clean checkpoint is whether ad momentum tracks toward that ~$3B 2026 target and if 2026 revenue lands in the company’s ~$50.7B–$51.7B range. One way or another, Netflix is trying to turn “What should we watch?” into “What’s new right now?”
Source: engadget.com

4. Deep-Sea Mining Gets a Fast Lane

The News: The Metals Company (TMC), a Vancouver-based deep-sea miner, became the first company to seek U.S. approval to mine the international seabed under newly streamlined NOAA rules, resubmitting an application on Jan. 22, 2026 to operate in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone between Hawaii and Mexico. The rule, published Jan. 21, 2026, collapses what was previously a two-step process into a single review so firms can apply for exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits at the same time—potentially shortening the timeline. TMC says it hopes to secure a permit by the end of 2026, and it has a commercial offtake agreement with Glencore to buy the metals it produces.

Why It Matters: This is an attempt to add supply of battery-and-electronics metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese) that ultimately flow into EV prices, power-grid gear, and gadget costs but the “new supply” pitch only matters if it survives environmental and legal headwinds. It’s a high-stakes test of whether the U.S. can create a viable permitting pathway for mining beyond national waters under the Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act, while the International Seabed Authority is still struggling to finalize global rules. If the U.S. route holds, it could reshape the critical-minerals supply chain and ignite years of courtroom drag.

What to Watch: NOAA will hold public hearings on TMC’s application on Jan. 27–28, 2026, a key early signal for how contentious (and litigable) this permitting pipeline will be. Also watch whether the permit timeline actually compresses in practice and whether regulators demand tighter environmental baselines before any commercial recovery. Unlike tech, the deep ocean does not do “move fast and break things.”
Source: reuters.com

5. SpaceX Lines Up Wall Street for a Moonshot IPO

The News: SpaceX has selected Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to lead a potential IPO targeted for July 2026, according to the Financial Times. The deal could raise more than $25B and value the company at over $1 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever if completed. Founded by Elon Musk, SpaceX was last valued around $800B in a recent secondary sale. The move marks a sharp turn for Musk, who previously said SpaceX would stay private until Mars missions were routine.

Why It Matters: This isn’t just about rockets—it’s about who pays for the next wave of infrastructure behind AI, satellite internet, and global connectivity. SpaceX is reportedly chasing tens of billions of dollars to build orbital, solar-powered AI data centers, a concept Musk sees as strategically critical as energy and land constraints hit Earth-based compute. A SpaceX IPO would reshape tech benchmarks overnight, potentially rivaling mega-caps like Tesla in scale while offering rare exposure to Starlink’s fast-growing subscriber base (now 8M+ users) and defense-linked launch revenue. It’s also a capital move in the AI arms race.

What to Watch: Watch for formal filings and whether SpaceX confirms the IPO window ahead of summer plus clarity on how much of the valuation rests on Starlink versus unproven orbital AI infrastructure. Also watch peers: OpenAI and Anthropic are both circling 2026 listings, setting up a high-stakes race for public-market attention. When bankers show up this early, they’re usually not window-shopping.
Source: financialpost.com

1. The Dollar Hits 50.5%

The News: The U.S. dollar accounted for 50.5% of global payments processed via SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) in December 2025, up from 46.8% in November and the highest share since SWIFT revised its methodology in 2023, per Bloomberg. The euro held about 22%, with the pound, Canadian dollar, yen, and yuan trailing. The dollar has averaged roughly 48% of SWIFT traffic over the past 18 months, making December’s jump notable even as markets digest tariff threats and “sell America” trades.

Why It Matters: A dominant dollar keeps cross-border pricing, contracts, and borrowing costs anchored to U.S. financial plumbing. Thereby reducing friction in trade and travel payments. The data undercuts years of de-dollarization rhetoric: global commerce still prefers the dollar’s liquidity and legal infrastructure. That said, warnings are getting louder. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff cautioned that eroding trust can push money into real assets, while MIT’s Kristin Forbes flagged a growing gap between demand for dollars and demand for U.S. Treasuries which have seen a recent sell-off.

What to Watch: Whether emerging-market payment rails gain traction without denting dollar usage. BRICS nations are exploring CBDC links, with India proposing interoperability ahead of its 2026 BRICS summit, even as officials insist it’s not de-dollarization.
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

2. Greenland Brinkmanship, Trade Deal Unfrozen

The News: The European Parliament is moving back toward a ratification vote on the EU–U.S. trade deal after President Donald Trump dropped his tariff threat against eight European countries, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said in Brussels on Jan. 22, 2026. Trump had announced on Jan. 17, 2026 a 10% tariff starting Feb. 1, 2026 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the U.K., with a planned step-up to 25% by June 1, 2026, tying the pressure campaign to demands around Greenland. On Jan. 21, 2026, Trump said the tariffs were off after a Davos meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte produced a “framework of a future deal” on Greenland/Arctic security-though details remain thin.

Why It Matters: The immediate win is boring-but-valuable: fewer sudden tariff shocks that can filter into prices for imported goods and disrupt supply chains (especially when deadlines are measured in weeks, not quarters). It’s a reminder that transatlantic trade is now trading like a headline-driven asset—policy risk can reprice expectations faster than fundamentals. The deal itself also matters on margins: Reuters previously reported a 15% tariff structure in the broader U.S.–EU “truce” framework, which is meaningfully lower than the kind of across-the-board tariffs markets fear most, even if it still reshapes who eats the cost.

What to Watch: Watch the European Parliament’s next procedural steps, Reuters noted the trade committee had been scheduled to vote its position Jan. 26–27, 2026, and EU lawmakers are still debating guardrails (including a potential sunset clause and safeguards against import surges). Also watch whether any written Greenland/Arctic framework emerges, because “framework” is not the same thing as enforceable. Diplomatic clarity is a tradable commodity now.
Source: bloomberg.com

3. Venezuelan Oil Is Back

The News: Venezuelan crude is flowing to Europe and the U.S. for the first time since 2019, after trading houses Trafigura and Vitol executed initial cargoes under a 50-million-barrel supply deal between Washington and Caracas, Reuters reported. Trafigura sold its first shipment to Repsol for February delivery to Spain, while Vitol shipped to Italy’s Saras and to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners Valero Energy and Phillips 66. U.S. cargoes cleared at $8.50–$9.50 per barrel below Brent, after traders bought the crude at roughly $15 below Brent, highlighting how sanctions-era risk still prices in.

Why It Matters: For consumers, incremental supply helps at the margin, especially for U.S. refiners built to run Venezuela’s heavy crude, though the steep discounts show this isn’t a flood that crushes pump prices. For markets, it’s a geopolitical reset with winners and losers: U.S. and European refiners regain access to a tailored feedstock, while China, which took about 642,000 bpd from Venezuela in 2025 (≈75% of exports), risks losing discounted barrels. Venezuela, meanwhile, gets cash flow.

What to Watch: Watch volumes and licenses. About 7.8M barrels have shipped so far, and ~12M barrels moved in under three weeks—only ¼ of the contracted total. Also watch whether Washington broadens authorizations (and Chevron expands exports).
Source: energynow.com

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