Good Afternoon. Monday opened with a whiff of dip-buying optimism and then the oil market had other plans. WTI crude blew past $100 a barrel for the first time since the Ukraine invasion in 2022, the Houthis formally entered the Iran war over the weekend, and the Pentagon is still weighing 10,000 more troops for the region. The Dow managed to cling to the flatline, but the S&P and Nasdaq slid further into correction territory and aluminum stocks went vertical after Iran bombed Gulf smelters. It's week six of the war, and the market is still searching for a floor.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Sysco Drops $29 Billion on Restaurant Depot

The News: Sysco announced Monday it will acquire Jetro Restaurant Depot, the nation's largest cash-and-carry food wholesaler, in a $29.1 billion deal. Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, giving them roughly 16% of the combined company. The deal values Jetro at 14.6x operating income and will be funded with $21 billion in new debt.

Why It Matters: This creates a nearly $100 billion revenue foodservice empire. Jetro generated $16 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in EBITDA last year with 166 warehouse stores across 35 states. For investors, Sysco expects mid-to-high single-digit EPS accretion in year one and low-to-mid teens in year two. For the restaurant industry, this puts more buying power under one roof -- which could mean lower food costs for the independent restaurants that depend on Restaurant Depot.

What to Watch: Regulatory scrutiny. Sysco already dominates food distribution; adding Restaurant Depot's 725,000 independent restaurant customers could draw antitrust attention. Sysco is pausing buybacks to prioritize deleveraging -- a tell that the debt load is no joke.

Source: GlobeNewswire

2. WTI Crude Crosses $100 for the First Time Since 2022

The News: U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude surged past $100 a barrel on Monday for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022, settling at $102.88 -- up $3.24 on the day. Brent crude hit $116 intraday before pulling back to $112.78. The catalysts: the Houthis entering the war, a U.S. troop buildup, and reports that Trump is considering a military operation to seize Iranian uranium stockpiles.

Why It Matters: For consumers, $100 WTI translates directly to higher gas prices -- the national average has already jumped about $1 since the war started, and the math only gets worse from here. For the economy, oil above $100 is the kind of persistent supply shock that tips sentiment from "slowdown" to "recession." Treasury Secretary Bessent tried to calm nerves Monday, saying the global oil market is "well supplied," but the price action says otherwise.

What to Watch: The April 6 deadline. Trump has promised to "unleash hell" on Iran's energy sector if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened. If that deadline passes without progress, oil traders are eyeing $120+ WTI as the next stop.

Source: WSJ

3. Alcoa Surges 9% After Iran Strikes Gulf Aluminum Smelters

The News: Alcoa stock jumped over 9% on Monday after Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck facilities belonging to Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Emirates Global Aluminium over the weekend. Alba, which operates the world's largest aluminum smelter, confirmed damage and two employee injuries. Aluminum forward contracts surged 4.8% to $3,342 per metric ton. Century Aluminum rose 10%, and Constellium and Kaiser Aluminum each gained 3-5%.

Why It Matters: The Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum production, and ANZ estimates four to five million metric tons of exports are now at risk. For investors, this is the war premium spreading to a new corner of the commodity complex -- it started with oil, then LNG, then fertilizer, and now metals. For manufacturers who depend on aluminum (cars, cans, construction), costs just went up.

What to Watch: Whether Alba and Emirates Global can restore full production. If damage is severe enough to take capacity offline for months, the aluminum market -- already tight -- could see prices not seen since the post-COVID supply crunch.

Source: Barron's

4. Eli Lilly Bets $2.75 Billion on AI Drug Discovery With Insilico Medicine

The News: Eli Lilly signed a collaboration deal with Hong Kong-listed Insilico Medicine worth up to $2.75 billion to use AI to discover and develop novel therapeutics across multiple disease areas. Insilico will receive $115 million upfront, with the rest in development, regulatory, and commercial milestones plus royalties. Lilly gets an exclusive worldwide license for a portfolio of preclinical oral therapeutics identified by Insilico's Pharma.AI platform.

Why It Matters: This is the largest AI-driven drug discovery deal to date and a massive endorsement of the thesis that AI can meaningfully accelerate the pharma pipeline. For investors, it signals that Big Pharma is willing to write billion-dollar checks for AI capabilities rather than build them in-house. For the broader AI narrative, it's a reminder that the technology's most transformative applications might be in healthcare, not chatbots.

What to Watch: Whether the partnership produces clinical candidates within the accelerated timelines Insilico promises. AI drug discovery has been long on hype and short on FDA approvals -- Lilly's stamp of credibility could change the calculus for the entire sector.

Source: Reuters

5. Goldman Sachs Says Hedge Funds Are Capitulating on Stocks

The News: Goldman Sachs traders flagged Monday that hedge fund selling has hit its fastest pace since April 2025, with funds cutting global equity holdings for the sixth consecutive week. Short sales are accelerating, systematic investors are dumping positions, and only 20% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average -- a level that historically signals oversold conditions.

Why It Matters: Here's the contrarian case: when professional money managers are this bearish, the setup for a snapback rally improves dramatically. If any positive headline emerges from the Iran talks -- a real ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, an oil price collapse -- the short covering could be violent. The Fear & Greed Index is flashing a rare "10" (extreme fear). For long-term investors, Goldman's note is a reminder that the best buying opportunities often feel terrible.

What to Watch: This week's economic data. JOLTS and consumer confidence land Tuesday, ADP and ISM manufacturing on Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and the March jobs report drops Friday (though markets are closed for Good Friday). Weak numbers could push the "growth scare" trade further -- but strong ones could spark the bounce.

Source: Bloomberg

1. Yemen's Houthis Enter the Iran War

The News: Yemen's Houthi movement formally entered the Iran war over the weekend, firing barrages of ballistic missiles and drones at southern Israel in two separate attacks within 24 hours on Saturday. The Israeli Defense Forces said the attacks were intercepted, but the Houthis vowed to continue strikes in support of "resistance fronts" in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. It's the first time the Houthis have attacked Israel since the Iran war began on February 28.

Why It Matters: This transforms a two-front war (U.S./Israel vs. Iran) into something much messier. The Houthis control key terrain near the Bab el-Mandeb strait -- another global shipping chokepoint -- and their involvement threatens to stretch U.S. and Israeli military resources thinner. For markets, it's another reason oil prices aren't coming down anytime soon. Secretary of State Rubio said Friday that U.S. operations would be "weeks, not months," but the Houthi entry makes that timeline harder to believe.

What to Watch: Whether the Houthis escalate to targeting shipping in the Red Sea again, which would compound the Hormuz disruption. A two-strait blockade scenario would be an energy market nightmare that nobody is pricing in.

Source: Time

2. Bessent Says the U.S. Will "Retake" the Strait of Hormuz

The News: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the U.S. will "retake control" of the Strait of Hormuz, whether through American escorts or a multinational coalition. Speaking on Fox News, Bessent insisted the global oil market is "well supplied" and pointed to increased vessel traffic through the strait as a positive sign. He also noted that the administration's Hormuz shipping insurance program will launch soon.

Why It Matters: "Retake" is a loaded word. It implies the U.S. views Iran's effective blockade as a temporary condition, not a negotiating chip. For oil markets, Bessent's comments offer a long-term bullish case for prices eventually normalizing -- but the key word is "eventually." In the short term, Brent is still above $112, insurance premiums for Gulf shipping remain astronomical, and Iran is still turning away Chinese container ships. For investors, the gap between Bessent's optimism and the price action tells the whole story.

What to Watch: The shipping insurance program. If the U.S.-backed program actually launches and brings down transit costs, it could be the first concrete step toward Hormuz normalization. Until then, it's just talk.

Source: Reuters

3. Pakistan Hosts Emergency Diplomacy Summit

The News: Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt convened in Islamabad on Monday for an emergency diplomatic session aimed at finding a path to end the Iran war. Pakistan, which has emerged as the primary mediator between Washington and Tehran, also announced that Iran has agreed to allow Pakistani-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz -- a small but tangible gesture. The summit comes as U.S. and Iranian officials reportedly engage in indirect negotiations for the first time since the conflict began.

Why It Matters: This is the most serious diplomatic effort yet. The presence of Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers signals that regional heavyweights are actively trying to prevent the conflict from spiraling further -- particularly after the Houthi entry and the aluminum smelter strikes expanded the war's footprint. For markets, any credible framework for talks could trigger the massive relief rally Goldman's traders are positioning for. For the Middle East, the stakes are existential: the Iranian Health Ministry says 1,937 people have been killed since the war began, including 230 children.

What to Watch: Whether the Islamabad summit produces a joint statement or framework that both Washington and Tehran can accept as a starting point. The April 6 energy-strike deadline is ticking, and this may be the last diplomatic window before escalation.

Source: Al Jazeera

Q: Why did the point guard go to jail?

A: He stole the ball.

A corporate strategy in which a company expands its operations into different stages of the same production process -- such as a manufacturer acquiring its supplier or its distributor -- to gain more control over costs, quality, and supply chain reliability.

"Sysco's $29 billion acquisition of Restaurant Depot is a textbook example of vertical integration -- the distributor is now buying the warehouse where independent restaurants shop."

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