Good Afternoon. If you were hoping for a nice “tariffs are over” moment, you picked the wrong Friday. The Court said no, Trump said 10%, and businesses said “cool, now give us refunds.” Meanwhile, supply chains keep rerouting anyway: in December, the U.S. imported more from Taiwan than China for the first time.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Trump Responds With a New 10% Global Tariff

The News: Hours after the Supreme Court nuked most of Trump’s “emergency” tariff regime (IEEPA) in a 6–3 ruling, Trump said he’ll replace it with a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Section 122 lets a president impose a temporary across-the-board surcharge for up to 150 days (and up to 15%)—and Trump says this new 10% will sit on top of existing tariffs. He also said the administration will launch fresh Section 301 investigations to tee up longer-lasting tariffs after the 150-day window.

Why It Matters: This is Washington’s new pattern: lose a legal lane, jump into another lane before markets can digest the first headline. For businesses, it means the “tariff uncertainty tax” stays alive—pricing, sourcing, and inventory decisions still get made under shifting rules. For consumers, a broad 10% surcharge is the kind of policy that quietly shows up everywhere (from electronics to basics), even if some companies try to delay pass-through. And for investors, the rally in trade-sensitive stocks tells you the market was braced for something like this—certainty, even bad certainty, can trade better than limbo.

What to Watch: Watch implementation timing—the Section 122 tariff is reportedly slated to start within three days, which means the pricing clock starts basically now. Watch how the administration frames the legal justification (Section 122 is tied to balance-of-payments language), because that’s where the next court fight could form.
Source: wsj.com

2. Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs

The News: The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) doesn’t let the president impose tariffs, striking down the bulk of Trump’s sweeping “emergency” tariff regime. But a huge chunk of the real-world bill stays because tariffs under Section 232 (national security) are untouched—including 25% tariffs on imported vehicles/parts and 50% steel/aluminum tariffs that were raised last year. Automakers say they’re still eating billions: GM projected $3B–$4B of tariff costs for 2026, and Ford’s tariff bill was effectively doubled to about $2B in 2025, with a similar hit expected in 2026. Homebuilders estimate tariff-related material increases add about $10,900 to the cost of a typical new home.

Why It Matters: The headline sounds like “tariffs are dead,” but the consumer impact is more “tariffs got re-labeled.” The Court just took away the broadest, fastest tool (IEEPA), yet the stickiest, sector-specific tariffs remain—and those are the ones that show up in car prices, appliances, furniture, and construction costs. Meanwhile, the ruling sets up a messy sequel: refunds on invalid IEEPA tariffs could be large (and slow), and the administration can still try new tariff routes under other laws—just with more procedural constraints.

What to Watch: Watch what the administration replaces the struck-down tariffs with—Section 122/301/232 options exist, but they’re slower, narrower, and easier to challenge.
Source: cnbc.com

3. Business Groups Want Tariff Refunds Fast.

The News: After the Supreme Court’s 6–3 ruling that Trump’s IEEPA “emergency” tariffs were unlawful, major trade groups immediately started pushing for refunds—fast. The National Retail Federation, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, footwear and apparel groups, and a coalition of 800+ small businesses all urged a streamlined process to return the billions already collected, framing refunds as an “economic boost” that could be reinvested in jobs, inventory, and prices. The problem: the Court didn’t spell out a refund roadmap, and the likely next stop is the U.S. Court of International Trade, where the logistics could drag.

Why It Matters: Refunds sound like a free stimulus, but they’re also a potential paperwork apocalypse. If importers don’t get automatic reimbursement, smaller companies could end up stuck in a claims queue—cash they already paid, tied up for months (or longer). For consumers, the pass-through is murky: some businesses will use refunds to cut prices, others will rebuild margins that tariffs already chewed up. Either way, this is the real-world test of tariff policy: it’s easy to collect money at the border; it’s much harder to unwind it after the fact.

What to Watch: Watch for guidance from Customs/CIT on whether refunds are automatic or require individual filings, because that determines who gets paid first. Watch timelines—Bloomberg-style estimates put the refund pool in the $170B+ neighborhood, which is big enough to create real winners/losers based on process alone.
Source: cbsnews.com

4. Apple + SpaceX Inch Toward “Satellite 5G” on the iPhone

The News: Apple is reportedly in renewed talks with SpaceX to bring Starlink direct-to-cell connectivity to future iPhones, with reporting pointing to the iPhone 18 Pro and a possible September 2026 launch window if the hardware is ready. A key enabling piece is Apple’s rumored in-house C2 modem, which leakers and Apple-watchers say may support NR-NTN (5G “non-terrestrial networks”), letting a regular phone talk to satellites without a special antenna. This would be a step up from Apple’s current Emergency SOS via satellite (Globalstar-based), potentially expanding from emergency messaging toward broader messaging and, longer-term, voice/data.

Why It Matters: If Apple pulls this off, “coverage” stops being a carrier-only story. Satellite 5G would be a real unlock for rural users, travel, disasters, and anyone who’s ever watched their signal die the moment they needed directions. For Apple, it’s also leverage: a credible satellite path gives Cupertino negotiating power with carriers and a bigger Services moat (maps, messaging, APIs). The messy part is politics and partnerships—Apple has already committed major money to Globalstar, and SpaceX has its own ambitions and spectrum moves that change the chessboard.

What to Watch: Watch for concrete C2/NR-NTN confirmation in developer betas and regulatory filings—rumors are fun, specs are real. Watch whether Starlink direct-to-cell expands beyond limited carrier trials, because widespread compatibility is the “this is happening” tell.
Source: forbes.com

5. Anthropic Drops “Claude Code Security”

The News: Anthropic launched Claude Code Security, an AI tool that scans codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests patches (limited research preview for Enterprise/Team customers), and cybersecurity stocks sold off on the “AI eats software” narrative. CrowdStrike and Cloudflare fell about 6% intraday at points, with other names (Okta, Zscaler, SailPoint) also sliding and the Global X Cybersecurity ETF dropping several percent.

Why It Matters: Investors are suddenly treating cybersecurity like it’s the next industry to get “unbundled” by general-purpose AI agents—especially in code review, vulnerability discovery, and remediation workflows. But the sector’s counter-argument is reasonable: AI doesn’t replace security, it increases the attack surface and the need for better defenses. Palo Alto’s Nikesh Arora put it bluntly: until models are close to 99.9% accuracy, they’re not a substitute for security products. Also worth noting: Anthropic is moving from “model provider” to “owning workflows” right after announcing a massive $30B Series G at a $380B post-money valuation, so markets are taking every new vertical move seriously.

What to Watch: Watch whether Claude Code Security stays a niche developer add-on or becomes an enterprise standard via integrations and compliance sign-offs—distribution will decide if this is “tool” or an actual “platform.”
Source: investing.com

1. Russia Cashed In Gold at Record Prices

The News: Russia’s central bank sold 300,000 ounces of gold from reserves in January, cutting bullion holdings to 74.5 million ounces—the first physical decline since October—while gold prices were near record highs. Even after the sale, the value of Russia’s gold reserves jumped 23% to a record $402.7 billion, lifted by the price rally.

Why It Matters: This is “war-budget math” with a shiny hedge. As oil and gas revenue pressure mounts, gold becomes one of the few liquid-ish levers Russia can pull without touching Western assets that are frozen under sanctions. It also underscores how gold’s rally has been a financial shock absorber for Moscow: Bloomberg previously calculated Russia’s gold hoard has gained $216 billion+ in value since February 2022—roughly comparable in scale to frozen sovereign assets in Europe.

What to Watch: Watch whether the Bank of Russia keeps doing physical gold sales via its “mirror operations” framework (it previously said domestic-market liquidity has improved enough to increase gold transactions), because sustained drawdowns would signal deeper fiscal stress.
Source: bloomberg.com

2. U.S. Tells the World: “No Thanks” to Global AI Rules

The News: The India AI Impact Summit ended with a very public split: the Trump administration said it “totally” rejects global governance of AI, arguing international frameworks become bureaucratic control. European leaders pushed the opposite direction, framing guardrails as compatible with innovation and investment. Meanwhile, India used the summit to pull in money and momentum—pitching governance frameworks like MANAV and touting a wave of AI investment commitments.

Why It Matters: This is the real AI governance problem in one sentence: the biggest AI builders don’t want a global referee, but everyone else wants rules before the tech gets even more powerful. Without shared standards, companies face a patchwork of laws (EU-style), looser regimes (U.S.-style), and “sovereignty-first” approaches (India-style)—which raises compliance costs and increases the odds of regulatory whiplash. Also: the rhetoric matters because it’s upstream of export controls, chip supply chains, and where frontier models get trained and deployed—aka the stuff that decides who wins the next decade.

What to Watch: Watch whether the summit produces a final declaration with broad signatories—or stalls as countries argue over language and enforcement. And watch the U.S.–India “Pax Silica” track on chips/critical minerals: even if Washington hates global AI governance, it’s still building bilateral tech alliances fast.
Source: straitstimes.com

3. For the First Time, the U.S. Imported More From Taiwan Than China

The News: In December 2025, the U.S. imported $24.7B of goods from Taiwan—a record month—while imports from China fell to $21.1B, the first time Taiwan has overtaken China as a monthly source in the modern U.S.–China trade era. China’s December shipments were down nearly 44% from $37.6B in December 2024, as tariffs push supply chains around and the AI boom pulls in more chips and computing gear.

Why It Matters: This is what “decoupling” actually looks like: not a clean break, more like rerouting. The U.S. is buying fewer finished goods directly from China, but it’s buying more high-end tech inputs from Taiwan and seeing deficits balloon elsewhere (Vietnam, Mexico) as production and assembly move around Asia. And it’s not subtle: 2025’s goods deficit with China fell to about $202B, while the deficit with Taiwan doubled to ~$147B and Vietnam jumped to about $178B. In other words: tariffs changed the map, but U.S. demand (especially for AI infrastructure) is still doing the driving.

What to Watch: Watch whether Taiwan and Vietnam become the next political targets—big, lopsided deficits tend to earn a bullseye once policymakers finish celebrating the China numbers. Watch the brand-new U.S.–Taiwan reciprocal trade agreement and what actually gets implemented: the U.S. tariff rate is set at 15%, and Taiwan committed to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers and boost purchases of U.S. goods through 2029.
Source: bloomberg.com

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A: Look, Ma! No hands!

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