Good Afternoon. May is going out the way it spent most of the month — green. Dell Technologies soared after a stunning earnings beat that included a "tens of billions" AI server backlog. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed at records and are pacing for monthly gains of 5%, 2%, and 8% respectively. Oil is set for its worst month since the 2020 pandemic crash as a US-Iran ceasefire extension sits one Trump signature away. The only sour note: the University of Michigan's final May consumer sentiment came in at its lowest level since June 2022.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Dell Soars

The News: Dell Technologies advanced roughly 30% in trading Friday after reporting fiscal Q1 revenue of $25.5 billion (vs. $24.0B consensus) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.12 (vs. $1.80 expected). The infrastructure solutions group, which houses AI servers, grew 56% year-over-year. CEO Michael Dell told analysts the AI server backlog is "in the tens of billions" and raised the full-year revenue outlook to $112-$115 billion. Dell also raised its share buyback authorization by $10 billion.

Why It Matters: For investors, Dell just validated the entire "AI capex moves down the stack" thesis with one report. The trifecta — revenue beat, raised guidance, expanded buyback — is the rare clean Q1 report in tech this earnings season. HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo all advanced in sympathy.

What to Watch: Dell's June 5 analyst day, where the company is expected to detail its custom-rack business with sovereign AI buyers — a higher-margin segment than commercial hyperscalers.

Source: Yahoo Finance

2. S&P 500 on Pace for Ninth Straight Weekly Gain

The News: The S&P 500 is on track to close higher for the ninth consecutive week, the longest such streak since 2004. The index has gained roughly 5% in May, with the Nasdaq Composite up about 8% and the Dow up about 2%. All three benchmarks closed at fresh records Thursday, marking the second straight session of joint highs and the strongest May performance since 2003.

Why It Matters: For investors, nine consecutive weekly gains is historically associated with momentum continuation, not exhaustion — the prior six instances since 1950 all saw the index higher three months later. For consumers, the wealth effect from a 5% monthly index gain typically adds about $200 billion in consumer spending power to the U.S. economy.

What to Watch: Whether June sees the streak extend through ten weeks — and whether the Russell 2000 finally joins the party. Small caps have lagged the rally meaningfully all month.

Source: Investopedia

3. Consumer Sentiment Dips Below June 2022 Trough

The News: The University of Michigan's final May Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.8, the lowest reading since June 2022. One-year inflation expectations climbed to 7.3% — the highest since 1981 — while five-year expectations advanced to 4.6%. The reading completes a five-month decline that has tracked alongside record equity markets.

Why It Matters: For investors, the divergence between sentiment (collapsing) and reality (record markets, 4.3% unemployment, 1.6% Q1 GDP) is one of the widest on record. Historically, "soft data" eventually converges with "hard data," but which way depends on whether the labor market holds. For consumers, the 7.3% one-year inflation expectation suggests tariff pass-through fears are sticky.

What to Watch: Next week's May payrolls report — if hiring stays above 150,000 with the unemployment rate below 4.5%, the "soft data is wrong" camp wins another round.

Source: TCI Wealth

4. Fed's Bowman Sees "Favorable Technology Shock" Boosting Productivity

The News: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman delivered a speech Friday characterizing the U.S. economy as "benefitting from a favorable technology shock that has boosted productivity and investment demand." She cited AI-related business investment as the primary driver of real GDP growth and acknowledged labor market fragility, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Bowman stopped short of signaling a near-term policy move.

Why It Matters: For investors, a senior Fed official explicitly framing AI as a productivity tailwind is the cleanest signal yet that the FOMC views the capex cycle as deflationary on a multi-year horizon — and therefore not requiring a hawkish response. For consumers, faster productivity growth ultimately means more disposable income, but only if the labor market doesn't soften further first.

What to Watch: Chair Warsh's June 17-18 press conference, where the new chair will be pressed on whether the Fed's neutral rate estimate is rising alongside the productivity narrative.

Source: Federal Reserve

5. Trump to Decide Iran Ceasefire by Saturday — Vance Says "Very Close"

The News: Vice President JD Vance told CBS News on Friday that a US-Iran ceasefire extension is "very close" and President Trump is expected to make a decision by Saturday. The proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding would extend the current truce, lift restrictions on Iranian oil sales in exchange for unimpeded Strait of Hormuz transit, and launch new talks on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. The White House also announced fresh oil sanctions on Iran overnight — a move analysts read as leverage.

Why It Matters: For investors, Trump's signature would lock in the oil collapse. Without it, Brent could re-test $100 in a single session. For consumers, the U.S. average retail gas price has already fallen 14 cents in the past two weeks; a signed deal could deliver another 30-50 cents by Independence Day.

What to Watch: Trump's Truth Social feed Saturday morning and any Israeli reaction — Prime Minister Netanyahu has signaled he opposes any deal that does not eliminate Iran's enrichment program.

Source: CBS News

6. Kospi Smashes 8,476 — Samsung HBM Goes Worldwide

The News: South Korea's Kospi index advanced 3.04% Friday to a record close of 8,476.15 after Samsung Electronics announced it had begun shipping its latest high-bandwidth memory chips to customers worldwide. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.53% to 66,329.5 while the Topix reached an all-time high of 3,957.17. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.62%. The Kospi has now advanced roughly 105% year-to-date — the best-performing major index globally.

Why It Matters: For investors, Samsung joining SK Hynix in volume HBM production resolves a key supply-chain bottleneck for Nvidia, AMD, and the hyperscalers. It also confirms Korea as the global memory monopoly — even as Micron tries to close the gap. For US investors, the iShares Korea ETF (EWY) is up roughly 75% year-to-date and trades at a steep discount to the underlying index gain.

What to Watch: Whether Samsung's HB4 14-stack memory secures Nvidia qualification by the Q3 deadline — that's the next catalyst for both names.

Source: CNBC

7. Oil Heads for Worst Month in Five Years

The News: Brent crude fell below $92 per barrel Friday and West Texas Intermediate dropped below $88, with both contracts on pace for monthly declines of roughly 18% — the steepest one-month drops since the 2020 pandemic shock. The slide reflects US-Iran ceasefire optimism, the OPEC+ June 1 meeting's expected production decision, and unexpectedly weak Chinese refinery utilization.

Why It Matters: For investors, the energy sector has lagged the S&P 500 by 12 percentage points in May — the widest single-month underperformance gap since 2015. Beneficiaries: airlines (DAL, UAL), refiners with light-product spread exposure, and consumer discretionary names with elevated gas-price sensitivity. For consumers, the monthly oil decline is worth roughly 35 cents per gallon at the pump within four weeks.

What to Watch: OPEC+'s Sunday meeting outcome and any reaction from Saudi Arabia, which has signaled it is comfortable with current prices — implying voluntary cuts could be extended through Q3.

Source: Yahoo Finance

8. SpaceX Cuts Tender Valuation to $400B from $450B

The News: SpaceX lowered the price of its current employee tender offer, valuing the company at roughly $400 billion versus the $450 billion target circulated earlier in May, according to multiple reports Friday. The trim comes amid a Blue Origin lunar-lander failure earlier this week and broader caution from secondary-market buyers about late-stage private valuations. Despite the markdown, SpaceX would remain the most valuable private company in the world.

Why It Matters: For investors, the markdown is the first negative datapoint in two years for the "space economy" narrative. It also reverberates through Cathie Wood's ARKX and the Procure Space ETF (UFO), both of which carry meaningful Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile exposure as proxies. For consumers, Starlink monthly pricing is unaffected — but the slip suggests the IPO timeline is being pushed out.

What to Watch: Whether SpaceX accelerates its Starship cadence in Q3 — historically, Musk uses operational milestones to defend valuation in tender rounds.

Source: The Pulse

Q: What's the best thing about Switzerland?

A: I don't know, but the flag is a big plus.

Joseph Schumpeter's term for the way capitalist economies progress — by destroying old industries and business models to make room for new, more productive ones. The horse-buggy gives way to the car; the typewriter to the PC; the seat-license to the AI agent.

Usage: "Salesforce's flat reaction to a record quarter is creative destruction in real time — investors are pricing in AI agents replacing the seat licenses that built the company."

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