Good Afternoon. So much for that Wednesday rebound. Oil prices ripped higher again on Day 6 of the Iran conflict, the Dow dropped nearly 800 points, and Treasury yields climbed for a fourth straight session. The only green on the screen? A handful of software stocks staging an AI-anxiety recovery. Buckle up, Friday's jobs report hits before the bell.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

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1. Dow Drops ~800 Points as Oil Erases Wednesday's Gains

The News: U.S. stocks suffered their steepest sell-off of the week on Thursday, with the Dow plunging more than 750 points (-1.61%) and the S&P 500 falling 0.56%. Oil prices surged past $83/barrel on Brent and $79 on WTI as damage to infrastructure and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply fears. The VIX spiked 18% to nearly 25.

Why It Matters: Wednesday's rebound now looks like a dead-cat bounce. For investors, the math is simple: every $10 rise in oil adds roughly 0.3-0.4 percentage points to headline inflation. With the 10-year yield already at 4.15% and the Fed meeting in two weeks, the bar for rate cuts just got higher. For consumers, diesel prices are pinching farmers and truckers, which means grocery bills could follow fuel prices upward.

What to Watch: Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. A strong number could cement the "no cut in March" narrative; a weak one might give the Fed cover to act despite energy inflation.

Source: Yahoo Finance

2. Nvidia Pulls the Plug on China's H200 Chips, Goes All-In on Vera Rubin

The News: Nvidia has stopped production of its H200 AI chips destined for China, redirecting manufacturing capacity at TSMC to its next-generation Vera Rubin platform, the Financial Times reported Thursday. Approximately 250,000 H200 units have already been produced but none generated revenue last quarter. Despite receiving U.S. government licenses for limited shipments, Beijing never approved imports.

Why It Matters: This is Nvidia formally walking away from the Chinese AI chip market -- at least for now. With $78 billion in Q1 revenue guidance that assumes zero China data center revenue, the move makes strategic sense: why tie up cutting-edge TSMC capacity for a product stuck in regulatory limbo when Vera Rubin customers (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft) are lining up? For investors, the China risk premium that hung over NVDA shares is effectively being removed by Nvidia itself.

What to Watch: The upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where chip export restrictions will be on the agenda. If restrictions ease, Nvidia would need 3 months to restart H200 production.

Source: Financial Times via Yahoo Finance

3. Greg Abel Puts His Paycheck Where His Mouth Is -- Berkshire Resumes Buybacks

The News: New Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel bought $15 million in Berkshire stock on Wednesday -- his entire after-tax annual salary -- and pledged to do the same every year he leads the company. Separately, Berkshire resumed share repurchases for the first time since Q2 2024, ending a six-quarter drought. Abel said he consulted Warren Buffett, who is still in the office five days a week, before both moves.

Why It Matters: It is a modest dollar amount relative to Berkshire's $373 billion cash pile, but the symbolism matters enormously during a leadership transition. Abel is signaling that he believes Berkshire trades below intrinsic value and that the Buffett playbook -- patience, discipline, opportunistic capital deployment -- remains intact. For long-term shareholders, the fact that Buffett endorsed the moves from his chairman's seat adds a layer of continuity.

What to Watch: Whether the buyback pace accelerates in coming quarters. At the current clip, it would barely dent that $373 billion mountain. Investors want to see acquisitions, not just symbolic purchases.

Source: Reuters

4. Judge Orders $175 Billion in Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling

The News: A federal judge at the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that "all importers of record" are entitled to refunds of tariffs collected under Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which the Supreme Court struck down on February 20. The government collected over $130 billion in tariff revenue, but total refunds could reach $175 billion according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. U.S. Customs and Border Protection must now figure out how to process mass refunds -- a system it was never designed to handle.

Why It Matters: For businesses, this is welcome clarity but a logistical nightmare. The refund pipeline could take months or years to process. For the Treasury, finding $175 billion to refund while the administration simultaneously proposes a new 15% global tariff creates a fiscal balancing act. For investors, companies like Costco (which sued for refunds) and major importers could see meaningful one-time earnings boosts when the money eventually flows back.

What to Watch: Whether the Trump administration appeals or tries to stall. Also watch for the proposed 15% tariff -- Bessent said this week it could start as soon as this week.

Source: NBC News

5. OpenAI Taps The Trade Desk to Sell Ads on ChatGPT -- Stock Soars 21%

The News: OpenAI has held early discussions with ad-tech firm The Trade Desk about helping sell advertisements on ChatGPT, The Information reported Wednesday. The talks signal that OpenAI, which recently began showing ads on free and lower-tier ChatGPT plans, wants to lean on an established ad platform to scale its nascent advertising business before building in-house tech. Trade Desk shares surged 21% on Thursday.

Why It Matters: This is the clearest sign yet that the AI industry's business model is shifting from pure subscription revenue toward advertising -- following the playbook that Google, Meta, and others perfected over the past two decades. For Trade Desk investors, a ChatGPT partnership would be transformative: access to one of the most-used AI platforms globally. For the broader ad-tech space, it raises questions about whether AI chatbots become the next major advertising channel.

What to Watch: Whether Google and Meta respond with their own AI-native ad formats. And whether paying ChatGPT subscribers push back on ads creeping into the experience.

Source: Seeking Alpha

1. China Sets Lowest GDP Growth Target Since 1991

The News: At the annual National People's Congress on Thursday, China set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5% to 5% -- the most conservative goal in over three decades. Premier Li Qiang acknowledged "deep-seated structural issues" and a "dramatically changing international landscape." Beijing held its budget deficit target at 4% of GDP and allocated 250 billion yuan for consumer trade-in subsidies, down from 300 billion yuan last year.

Why It Matters: This is Beijing essentially admitting that the old growth model -- property, infrastructure, exports -- is broken. For global investors, a slower China means less commodity demand (bad for miners), more deflationary pressure on manufactured goods (mixed for importers), and a greater focus on domestic tech innovation. For the Trump administration, it complicates trade negotiations ahead of the upcoming Xi-Trump summit: China has less to lose from tariff escalation when it is already targeting slower growth.

What to Watch: The Five-Year Plan details expected later this week, particularly around tech self-sufficiency, AI investment, and any signals about stimulus spending.

Source: CNBC

2. Oil Jumps 3% as Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut and Iraq Output Crumbles

The News: Brent crude rose to $83.07/barrel (+2.8%) on Thursday as the Iran conflict entered its sixth day with no sign of de-escalation. Iraq -- OPEC's second-largest producer -- has cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day due to a lack of storage and export routes. Qatar declared force majeure on gas exports, warning it may take a month to resume normal production. J.P. Morgan estimates 329 oil tankers are stranded in the Gulf.

Why It Matters: The "this will blow over quickly" trade is losing conviction. For energy markets, a month-long disruption to Qatar's LNG alone would send European natural gas prices significantly higher. For consumers globally, the pass-through to gasoline, diesel, and eventually food prices is already underway. For the Fed and ECB, this is the worst possible timing -- energy-driven inflation hitting just as both central banks were considering rate cuts.

What to Watch: Whether Trump's offer of naval escorts and insurance for tankers actually convinces shipping companies to resume Strait crossings. So far, insurers are not playing ball.

Source: Reuters

3. Robinhood Launches $695 Platinum Card, Takes on Amex and Chase

The News: Robinhood unveiled its Platinum credit card on Wednesday with a $695 annual fee, targeting wealthy customers with 10% cash back on hotels, 5% on flights and dining, and over $3,000 in annual perks including Priority Pass lounge access, DoorDash credits, and health memberships. The card, plated in real platinum, launches on an invitation-only basis. It undercuts the Amex Platinum ($895) and Chase Sapphire Reserve ($795).

Why It Matters: Robinhood is no longer just a meme-stock trading app. This is a full-court press to become a comprehensive financial platform, and the premium credit card space is one of the most profitable -- and competitive -- corners of consumer finance. For Amex and Chase, a lower-priced competitor with aggressive rewards going after the same affluent demographic is a credible threat. For Robinhood investors, the card could accelerate the company's transition from volatile trading revenue to stickier, recurring financial services income.

What to Watch: Whether demand exceeds supply at launch. Robinhood already has 600,000+ cardholders from its Gold Card waitlist -- if Platinum demand is similar, it would validate the premium strategy.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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