Good Afternoon. Fifty-seven years ago today, Neil Armstrong stepped off a ladder onto lunar dust and said the eight words every American kid can still quote.

Fun fact: the famous "giant leap" line? It was scripted weeks earlier by NASA speechwriters, and Armstrong later insisted he actually said "one small step for a man" but the transmission dropped the "a."

Wall Street didn't get a script Monday either. Chip stocks saw a partial rebound, oil briefly surged past $90 on Hormuz drama, and Big Tech loaded up the earnings gauntlet for Wednesday.

One small step for chips, one giant week for Alphabet, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number: $10.04 — Travelers's Q2 core EPS Friday, blowing past the $5.41 consensus by nearly 93%. The stock closed +9.22% at a record and everyone's still talking about it Monday.

After last week's semiconductor bloodbath, the sector managed the smallest possible bounce. The $SMH ETF added 0.58%, $AMD surged 3.07%, $MU rose 2.20%, $INTC picked up 2.95%, and $AVGO added 2.08%. The one that everyone actually cares about? $NVDA barely budged, gaining 0.15% on the day. That's not conviction — that's technical positioning ahead of a giant earnings week.

The news: The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell nearly 10% last week, its worst stretch in over a year, on fears the AI capex party had peaked. Monday's move looks more like a technical exhale than the start of anything real. Bloomberg framed it bluntly — "the chip rout stops" — but stopping the rout and starting a rally are two different things.

What's next: $INTC reports Thursday after the close, with analysts expecting $0.19 EPS on $14.4B in revenue. That number will tell us whether the rebound has legs or whether it's just short-covering.
Source: Yahoo Finance

Wednesday afternoon is going to be a lot. $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, and $TSLA all report the same day, followed by $INTC on Thursday. Positioning ahead of the reports was uneven — $MSFT added 1.84%, $GOOGL rose 1.48%, $META picked up 0.41%, and $TSLA fell 2.78% as traders trimmed risk into the report.

The news: Jim Cramer told viewers investors can own the mega-caps but should "prepare for volatility." That's a nice way of saying nobody knows how AI capex commentary will land after last week's rout. Also loading up Wednesday: IBM, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Comcast. If the mega-caps disappoint, the rest of the market has nowhere to hide.

Bottom line: With four hyperscalers reporting the same afternoon, expect Wednesday's after-hours to feel like a small crash or a small moonshot — nothing in between.
Source: CNBC

The Federal Reserve isn't speaking with one voice, and Monday made that painfully clear. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said businesses are now telling her the central bank needs to act on inflation — a genuine hawkish shift, the first of her tenure. Meanwhile, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Friday evening he's "prepared to be more flexible" if inflation moderates.

The news: CME FedWatch odds show a 14% chance of a July hike and 55% odds of a September hike, per the Detroit News wire. Two officials, two directions, one confused market. Hammack has been one of the FOMC's more balanced voices, so her tilt toward tightening carried real weight with rates traders Monday.

Big picture: When policymakers disagree this loudly this close to a meeting, it typically means the data isn't clean enough to be decisive. That's a dovish signal all by itself.
Source: Detroit News

A California federal court dropped a temporary restraining order Monday on the $110B Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, responding to a challenge from 12 state attorneys general who argued the merger would concentrate too much media power in too few hands. The deal is on ice until the court rules on a preliminary injunction.

The news: This is separate from an earlier consumer-lawsuit challenge that was denied last week. The AG action carries much more legal weight because it's a coordinated state enforcement move.

What's next: Expect Paramount and Warner Bros. lawyers to seek an expedited hearing. If the injunction sticks, the deal could slip into 2027 — an eternity in streaming years.
Source: CNBC

Even with one megadeal frozen, the corporate development desks are working overtime. Brookfield and CPP Investments announced a $5.2B all-cash acquisition of LXP Industrial, a warehouse-focused REIT. Koch-owned Molex agreed to purchase a $6.29B data-center business from a still-unnamed seller. And Tempus AI is scooping up Personalis for $1.5B in a precision-oncology bet.

The news: Three deals worth over $13B combined in a single Monday, all in different sectors — warehouse real estate, semiconductor infrastructure, and healthcare data.

Bottom line: When rates are stuck and organic growth gets harder, strategics buy. When strategics buy, private-equity dry powder chases the leftovers. This cycle isn't slowing down — if anything, the antitrust noise around Paramount and Warner will push future deals toward friendlier structures like Molex's carve-out and Brookfield's REIT roll-up.
Source: WSJ

Iran halted all maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, per CGTN. Only 21 tankers made the transit Friday — that number's almost certainly lower today. Brent crude briefly climbed above $90 for the first time since early June before settling near $88.31. $USO added 1.87% while $XOM and $CVX rose 0.92% and 1.20% respectively. Then late in the session, Iran's state news agency signaled openness to mediator proposals for talks with the US.

The news: The ninth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, two more American soldiers killed in Jordan on Friday, Houthi expansion into the Red Sea, and now a diplomatic opening — all in 72 hours.

Big picture: Roughly 20% of global oil transits Hormuz. Every day it stays effectively closed, energy inflation risk compounds. The Iranian talk hint is why $VIX actually fell 1.66% — markets are pricing optionality, not certainty.
Source: Reuters

The People's Bank of China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 14th consecutive month — the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the 5-year at 3.5%. It also raised the cross-border financing macro-prudential parameter from 1.25 to 1.5, a technical move that makes it easier for Chinese firms to borrow abroad. That's a targeted way to support the yuan without cutting rates.

The news: Q2 GDP came in at 4.3%, softer than most forecasts. The 10-year Chinese government bond yield rose to 1.74% after the decision as traders unwound bets on more easing.

What's next: The late-July Politburo meeting is when Beijing typically signals second-half priorities. Watch for language about consumption support and property stabilization.
Source: Trading Economics

Japanese equity markets were closed Monday for Marine Day, but the currency didn't get a holiday. The yen slipped again toward four-decade lows against the dollar, with intervention fears rising by the hour. The Nikkei 225 last traded Friday at 64,141, down 4.03% on the session and now more than 11% below its June 25 record close — officially in correction territory.

The news: A weak yen plus oil above $90 is the worst possible combo for Japan, which imports nearly all its energy. Every dollar of Brent above $85 widens the trade deficit meaningfully.

Bottom line: Tokyo reopens Tuesday and traders will have to catch up on all of Friday's global rout, Monday's partial rebound, and the Iran headlines simultaneously. Expect fireworks at the open. Nikkei futures traded higher overnight, hinting at a bounce, but a stronger yen or another Hormuz headline could flip the setup fast.
Source: Reuters

Q: Why did the Oreo go to the dentist?

A: Because it lost its filling.

The tendency for people to feel the pain of a loss roughly twice as intensely as the pleasure of an equivalent gain.

The ratio matters: losing $100 hurts about as much as gaining $200 feels good. It's the foundation of Kahneman and Tversky's Nobel-winning prospect theory work, and it explains a lot of what happened Monday.

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