Good Afternoon. A WSJ report that OpenAI is missing internal user and revenue targets lit a fire under the "AI-adjacent" trade — Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia, AMD — while SoftBank had its worst session in six months overnight in Tokyo. Meanwhile the UAE told OPEC it's leaving, Brent rose above $110, and the Fed kicks off a two-day meeting with bad headlines and rising yields. Record highs yesterday, reality check today.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. The OpenAI Complex Cracks — Oracle -7%, SoftBank Worst Day in Six Months

The News: A Wall Street Journal report out overnight said OpenAI has recently fallen short of internal targets for new users and revenue as rivals narrow the gap. Oracle opened down about 7.7% to $159.80, CoreWeave slumped, and Nvidia and AMD each fell roughly 3% pre-market before paring. In Tokyo, OpenAI-backer SoftBank shed 9.9% — its worst single-day percentage loss in six months.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the first real data-point behind a thesis the bears have been whispering for months: that the AI capex cycle is front-loaded against demand that may not show up on schedule. Oracle, in particular, signed one of the largest AI cloud deals in history with OpenAI — if the customer misses, the provider's revenue forecasts are suddenly air. The selloff didn't stay in one ticker; it hit every "OpenAI-adjacent" name, which is exactly how AI bubbles historically unwind.

What to Watch: Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all report tomorrow night — their AI capex commentary is now the single most-read line item on Wall Street. If any one of them hedges on 2027 spend, the rotation out of AI-adjacents accelerates.

Source: MarketWatch

2. Spotify Beats on EPS, Misses on Revenue — Subscriber Guide Comes in Light

The News: Spotify posted Q1 EPS of $3.45 versus the $2.94 consensus, but revenue of €4.53 billion missed the €4.62 billion estimate. Monthly active users crossed 761 million — a new high — and premium subs inched up to 293 million. Q2 MAU guidance landed below the Street, sending shares down pre-market despite a record €715M operating income.

Why It Matters: For investors, Spotify is the canary for the "pricing-power vs. sub-growth" tradeoff that has held the whole streaming sector together. U.S. price hikes are still dropping straight to margin, but the guide tells you top-of-funnel growth is cooling just as the content costs reset. For consumers, it means the price of your Premium plan is going up again before the free tier gets a useful upgrade.

What to Watch: The 6.94% implied move in options markets suggests the Street isn't done repricing. Watch whether Q2 MAU guidance triggers a wave of downgrades on the ad-supported side of the house.

Source: Variety

3. Consumer Confidence Hits a 2026 High — Right as the Fed Sits Down

The News: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.6 points to 92.8 in April from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March — the highest reading of 2026. Job-market perceptions and wage expectations both improved. Separately, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller's 20-city composite rose 0.9% year-over-year in February, decelerating from January's 1.19%.

Why It Matters: For the Fed, which begins its two-day meeting today, this is an awkward data point. The consumer is hanging tougher than the "Hormuz-plus-tariff" narrative would suggest, and housing is still appreciating (barely). That makes it harder for Powell to signal the cut the market has started quietly pricing in for the back half of 2026. For investors, yield curves are steepening for a reason.

What to Watch: The FOMC statement drops tomorrow afternoon. The tell won't be the hold — it'll be the dot plot and any language about the "tariff-oil premium" feeding through to services inflation.

Source: PR Newswire (Conference Board)

4. Visa Reports After the Bell — The Health-Check on the Consumer

The News: Visa releases fiscal Q2 results at 4 p.m. ET with a 5 p.m. ET call. Consensus is looking for mid-single-digit payments-volume growth and a re-acceleration in cross-border spend as summer travel bookings pick up. The print lands into a tape where the Consumer Confidence print just hit a 2026 high — so the bar is higher than a week ago.

Why It Matters: For investors, Visa is the cleanest proxy for global spending velocity — it picks up tariffs, travel, and services inflation in one number. For consumers, a strong cross-border number means the "revenge travel" trade still has legs; a miss would be the first crack in the spending-is-fine consensus. Mastercard reports Thursday, so this sets the table.

What to Watch: Cross-border volumes and any management color on tariff pass-throughs to merchant categories. If the commentary goes defensive, the whole consumer discretionary bucket trades lower on Wednesday's open.

Source: MarketBeat

5. Starbucks Q2 Preview — The Turnaround Gets Its Report Card

The News: Starbucks reports fiscal Q2 after the close today. Consensus is looking for revenue of roughly $9.14 billion (+4% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.43, up from $0.41 a year ago. Options traders are pricing in a ~6.94% move on the print. CEO Brian Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" playbook — simplified menu, faster throughput, barista re-staffing — now needs to show up in U.S. comps.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the quarter where the turnaround narrative either gets a second wind or loses the benefit of the doubt. For consumers, the tell is whether the "coffeehouse" messaging is finally translating to shorter waits and a check-average that isn't climbing faster than your paycheck. Starbucks has been a de-facto barometer for U.S. services inflation all year.

What to Watch: U.S. same-store sales, China trajectory, and any update on the strategic review of international operations. If comps go positive for the first time in a year, the whole restaurant complex re-rates higher.

Source: Yahoo Finance

6. The UAE Quits OPEC — and OPEC+ Loses Its Most Important Swing Producer

The News: The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it is leaving both OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a historic blow to the cartel and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia. The UAE is the third-largest OPEC producer — roughly 3 million barrels per day — and the exit arrives in the middle of the biggest energy shock since the 1970s, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut.

Why It Matters: For investors, OPEC's cohesion was the last structural argument for an oil price ceiling. Without the UAE — which has long pushed for higher quotas — Saudi Arabia is now the cartel in all but name, and the next production meeting becomes a unilateral decision instead of a negotiation. For consumers, this is the kind of rupture that turns a geopolitical oil spike into a structurally higher oil regime.

What to Watch: Whether the UAE announces an immediate production increase (as an independent) and how Saudi Arabia responds. If Riyadh cuts to defend price, expect another leg higher in Brent; if it matches the UAE, we get a 2014-style market-share war on top of the Iran shock.

Source: Reuters

7. Brent Punches Above $110 for a Seventh Straight Day — Hormuz Still Dark

The News: Brent crude advanced for a seventh consecutive session, topping $110 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained near zero throughput and the White House said President Trump would address Iran's reopening proposal "very soon." WTI traded around $96.65 for June delivery, while the July Brent contract sat at $101.95, showing a sharp backwardation.

Why It Matters: For investors, the curve shape is telling you the market doesn't believe the near-term risk fades. Backwardation this steep historically coincides with physical-barrel panics, not speculative froth. For consumers, the gasoline pipeline is running on a 4-6 week lag — the real pump-price hit from this stretch is arriving in May.

What to Watch: Any statement from Trump on the Iran proposal, and U.S. commercial crude inventories tomorrow morning. A bigger-than-expected draw would confirm physical tightness and push Brent toward $115.

Source: NDTV Profit

8. Japan's Nikkei Falls 1.02% — The Peace-Trade Rally Takes Its First Real Hit

The News: The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.02% at 59,917.46 after making a record high above 60,000 on Monday. SoftBank was the single biggest drag, shedding 9.9% after the OpenAI revenue-miss report; the Bank of Japan held rates and Governor Ueda declined to signal a near-term hike, keeping the yen weak.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the first day the "Japan is the new safety trade" narrative got tested. SoftBank is effectively a listed AI ETF — when its biggest bet stumbles, the whole Topix complex goes defensive. The fact that Ueda stayed dovish while the Fed gets hawkish is widening the rate differential again, which keeps the yen carry trade alive even as U.S. tech wobbles.

What to Watch: Whether Tokyo follows through with a second red session tomorrow or snaps back on buy-the-dip flows. A second down day would suggest the global AI repricing is broader than a one-day headline.

Source: Reuters

Q: Why did the music teacher go to jail?

A: Because she stole the show.

A quick mental-math shortcut that estimates how many years it takes an investment to double by dividing 72 by the annual rate of return.

Usage: "At an 8% return, the Rule of 72 says your portfolio doubles in roughly nine years — the kind of compounding that turns a lazy IRA contribution into a retirement."

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