Good Afternoon. Today's jobs report hit Wall Street like a cold shower. Instead of the modest +50,000 gain economists expected, nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 — the kind of miss that makes traders recalibrate everything in real time. Add in $85 oil, rising unemployment, and a VIX that just jumped 12%, and Friday's news feels like a semester-end exam nobody studied for.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. The Jobs Report’s Big Miss

The News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, wildly missing the consensus estimate of a 50,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. Health care shed 28,000 jobs amid ongoing strike activity, while the federal government cut another 10,000 positions as DOGE-driven restructuring continues. December's already-weak number was revised down an additional 65,000.

Why It Matters: This is the kind of number that rewrites the macro narrative overnight. For investors, the sudden weakness tilts the Fed's calculus sharply toward rate cuts — but if $85 oil keeps pushing inflation higher, the central bank is trapped between a weakening labor market and sticky prices. For consumers, rising unemployment is a lagging indicator — the pain in hiring freezes and reduced hours is already being felt.

What to Watch: Fed commentary in the coming days will be critical. If multiple FOMC members signal urgency, expect bond yields to drop further and rate-sensitive stocks (homebuilders, REITs) to rally. Next Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading will show whether this is filtering into household confidence.

Source: bls.gov

2. Oil Stays Above $85 as Hormuz Crisis Enters Second Week

The News: WTI crude held above $85 a barrel on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for a seventh consecutive day. President Trump told reporters that a ground invasion of Iran would be "a waste of time right now" and that Iran has "lost everything." Behind the scenes, the administration is weighing a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release while the Treasury actively trades oil futures to manage volatility. Russia received new waivers to ship oil to India through alternative routes.

Why It Matters: For investors, $85 oil is the threshold where energy stocks celebrate and everything else starts to sweat. Airlines, trucking, and consumer discretionary names all feel the squeeze when crude stays elevated. For the broader economy, persistent high oil prices act like a stealth tax — and combined with today's jobs data, they paint a picture that starts to rhyme uncomfortably with the S-word (stagflation).

What to Watch: Any signal of the Strait being “reopened” can send oil down $5 in hours. Conversely, watch for signs of SPR drawdown announcements, which would signal the White House views current prices as politically untenable.

Source: Reuters

3. Costco Proves It's Still the King of "Just One More Rotisserie Chicken"

The News: Costco reported fiscal Q2 earnings that beat on both lines — EPS of $4.58 topped the $4.54 estimate, and revenue came in at $69.6 billion versus $69.3 billion expected. Same-store sales grew 6.7%, driven by strong traffic and the retailer's ability to keep prices lower than competitors amid persistent inflation.

Why It Matters: In an economy where consumers are increasingly stressed, Costco's model — bulk value, loyalty-driven membership, and those $1.50 hot dogs — keeps working. For investors, this is a defensive growth name in a market that desperately wants safety. The 6.7% comp is especially impressive given the macro backdrop and suggests the trade-down effect continues to benefit warehouse clubs.

What to Watch: Keep an eye on Costco's membership renewal rates and international expansion commentary. If the consumer weakens further (today's jobs data suggests it might), Costco could actually see traffic accelerate as shoppers seek value.

Source: CNBC

4. Marvell's AI Chip Revenue Goes Vertical

The News: Marvell Technology posted record quarterly revenue of $2.219 billion, up 22% year over year, beating the $2.21 billion consensus. EPS of $0.80 edged past the $0.79 estimate. AI-driven revenue surged as the company's custom silicon and data center interconnect business accelerated. Management guided Q1 revenue to $2.4 billion, above expectations.

Why It Matters: Marvell is the "picks and shovels" play for custom AI chips — it designs the silicon that cloud hyperscalers like Amazon and Google use to train and run their own models. For investors who've been asking whether AI infrastructure spending is real or just hype, a 22% revenue jump and a raised guide answers the question. This is the kind of beat that quietly rebuilds confidence in the AI trade after recent wobbles.

What to Watch: Follow-through from other semi names next week. If the AI spending cycle is broadening beyond Nvidia to custom silicon players like Marvell, it signals durability in the capital expenditure boom rather than a single-vendor concentration risk.

Source: MarketWatch

5. Gap Says Tariffs Will Cost It 200 Basis Points of Margin

The News: Gap Inc. reported Q4 earnings per share of $0.45, meeting Wall Street expectations, with comparable sales up 3% across its portfolio of brands including Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta. But the headline was the forward guidance: management warned that new tariffs would shave roughly 200 basis points off operating margin in the coming fiscal year, even after accounting for pricing adjustments and supply chain diversification.

Why It Matters: Gap is a canary in the coal mine for retail's tariff problem. Unlike luxury brands that can pass costs to wealthy buyers without blinking, Gap's consumer base is price-sensitive — especially Old Navy shoppers. Two hundred basis points of margin compression is real money, and if Gap is seeing it, so is every mid-market retailer with Asian supply chains. For consumers, expect sticker shock on basics by summer.

What to Watch: Watch how other retailers (Nike, Target, Lululemon) frame tariff impact in their upcoming calls. If the 200bps number becomes the baseline expectation, the retail sector's earnings estimates will need a meaningful reset.

Source: WSJ

1. Trump Says Iran "Lost Everything" — Signals No Ground Invasion

The News: President Trump explicitly ruled out a near-term ground invasion of Iran, telling reporters that it would be "a waste of time" and that Tehran has "lost everything" after a week of sustained U.S.-led pressure. The comments came as U.S. naval forces continued escort operations near the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic back-channels reportedly intensified.

Why It Matters: Markets have been pricing in escalation risk all week, so a signal that the conflict stays at the economic and naval level — rather than boots on the ground — is modestly positive for risk assets. For investors, this is the difference between $85 oil and $120 oil. The language also suggests the administration believes its current approach is working, which means sanctions and the Hormuz standoff could persist longer than expected.

What to Watch: Iran's response will set the next chapter. If Tehran offers any diplomatic off-ramp, oil could drop sharply. If it doubles down, expect the SPR debate to intensify.

Source: Reuters

2. Russia Gets Waivers to Ship Oil to India Around Hormuz

The News: The U.S. Treasury quietly granted waivers allowing Russian oil shipments to India through alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The move is designed to prevent a complete supply shock in the world's third-largest oil importer while maintaining pressure on Iran. India has been one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude since the 2022 sanctions regime.

Why It Matters: This is geopolitical chess at its finest. The U.S. is trying to choke Iran's oil revenue while ensuring that global supply doesn't crater badly enough to send crude to $100+. For investors, it signals that the administration is actively managing the oil market's ceiling, not just the conflict. For energy traders, it means the supply picture is more nuanced than the "Hormuz is shut" headline suggests.

What to Watch: India's purchasing patterns will be a key leading indicator. If Indian refiners start ramping Russian crude imports, it provides a pressure valve that could keep global benchmarks from spiking further.

Source: Bloomberg

3. Treasury Steps Into the Oil Futures Pit — Yes, Really

The News: In an unusual move, the U.S. Treasury has been actively trading oil futures contracts to help manage price volatility during the Hormuz crisis. The intervention, confirmed by multiple sources, is aimed at preventing speculative spikes that could destabilize global markets. It's one of the most direct market interventions by Treasury in the energy space since the 1990s Gulf War.

Why It Matters: When the government starts trading futures, it tells you two things: prices are high enough to be politically dangerous, and the administration doesn't trust the market to self-correct. For investors, it introduces a new variable — government price management — that makes trading crude even trickier. For the economy, it's a sign that $85+ oil is viewed as a serious threat to the recovery.

What to Watch: Look for Congressional pushback. Treasury trading in commodity markets is legally murky territory, and if the details leak more fully, expect hearings. Also watch WTI's $80 and $90 levels as the battleground for bulls vs. government intervention.

Source: Financial Times

Q: Why did the economist bring a rake to the jobs report?

A: Because he heard the numbers were going to fall.

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A brief, temporary recovery in the price of a declining asset, often mistaken for a reversal but typically followed by a continuation of the downtrend.

"Traders who bought the early-morning dip were caught in a classic dead cat bounce — the S&P rallied 0.3% at the open before rolling over to finish down more than 1%."

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