Good Afternoon. After last week's six-in-a-row weekly winning streak, today opened on a different note. President Trump rejected Iran's response to the U.S. peace proposal Sunday night, calling it "totally unacceptable." Equities took it in stride at the open. Chips kept rolling, Tesla gained ~4%, and Moderna surged 8.5% on a early stage hantavirus vaccine announcement. The bigger story sits Thursday-Friday in Beijing, where the first Trump-Xi summit since 2017 will define the next phase of the U.S.-China relationship.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Trump Calls Iran Response "Totally Unacceptable" -- Oil Climbs 3%

The News: President Trump rejected Iran's response to the U.S. peace proposal in a Truth Social post Sunday night, calling it "totally unacceptable." West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 3.1% to $98.35 per barrel and Brent advanced 3% to $104.30. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.40% from below 4.36% at Friday's close, and the dollar index gained 0.1% to 98.02. Stocks opened lower but the S&P 500 trimmed losses through the morning.

Why It Matters: For investors, the "peace trade" that drove the May rally has hit its first real test. The 11-session crude rally from $86 to $98.35 has reintroduced an inflation tail to the next two CPI reports. For consumers, every $1 sustained move in WTI translates to roughly 2.5 cents at the U.S. pump within three weeks -- a hard ceiling on Memorial Day driving relief if the peace talks stay stuck.

What to Watch: Iranian state media response by midweek and any Strait of Hormuz tanker incidents. A coordinated Saudi-UAE production add at June's OPEC+ meeting is the cleanest way to cap crude near $95.

Source: Investopedia

2. Moderna Soars 8.5% on Hantavirus Vaccine Research

The News: Moderna (MRNA) gained 8.5% in early Monday trading after the company announced it is advancing research into a hantavirus vaccine, extending Friday's 12% advance. The two-day move puts Moderna roughly 21% higher, the biggest two-session surge since the 2024 RSV approval cycle.

Why It Matters: For investors, Moderna has spent two years searching for a non-COVID growth lever, and a hantavirus program addresses a real public-health gap with no licensed vaccine in the U.S. market today. The CDC has tracked rising rodent-borne case counts across the Mountain West, and the addressable market -- though small -- carries higher pricing power than commodity flu programs. For consumers, the mRNA platform's expansion into rare zoonotic targets validates the post-COVID pivot the company has been promising since 2023.

What to Watch: Moderna's Q1 earnings on May 15 and any commentary on pipeline cadence, late-stage flu/RSV combo data, and 2026 revenue guidance.

Source: Investopedia

3. Chip Rally Extends -- Micron +6%, AMD and Marvell Hold Friday Records

The News: Micron Technology (MU) climbed 6% in premarket trading, extending Friday's 14% surge to a fresh all-time high. AMD and Marvell -- which jumped 14% and 16% respectively on Friday -- held those record levels into Monday's session. Tesla gained 4% in early trading, and the broader semiconductor sector continued to outperform.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the chip cycle's third major leg in twelve months -- HBM memory pricing for AI accelerators is the new oil, and Micron's exposure to Nvidia's Blackwell supply chain is doing the heavy lifting on its multiple. JPMorgan's trading desk now expects mega-cap chips to keep advancing into Nvidia's May 20 earnings. For consumers, expect another round of consumer-electronics price stickiness through the back-to-school cycle as memory contract prices tick higher.

What to Watch: Nvidia's May 20 earnings (consensus revenue near $46 billion) and any commentary on H200/Blackwell allocations to Asian sovereigns. AMAT and Cisco earnings later this week will color the capex narrative.

Source: CNBC

4. Constellation Energy and Circle Internet Group Both Gain 5% on Earnings

The News: Constellation Energy (CEG) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) each gained roughly 5% Monday morning in the aftermath of earnings reports. Fox Corp (FOX) added 2.5%. The reports kept the post-jobs earnings season momentum intact, with positive reactions running roughly 60-40 over negative reactions over the last two weeks.

Why It Matters: For investors, Constellation Energy is the cleanest U.S. proxy for AI-driven nuclear power demand -- its data-center power purchase agreements with hyperscalers have rerated the stock by 65% over twelve months. Circle, the USDC stablecoin issuer, is increasingly viewed as the regulated-crypto play following the GENIUS Act passage. For consumers, the power-AI link is a slow-burn inflation factor -- residential rates in PJM and ERCOT could climb 8-12% by 2028 to fund data-center expansion.

What to Watch: Constellation's commentary on additional hyperscaler contracts and Circle's USDC market-cap trajectory through summer.

Source: Investopedia

5. White House Invites Musk, Cook to Join Trump on Beijing Trip

The News: The White House is inviting Tesla's Elon Musk and Apple's Tim Cook to accompany President Trump on his trip to Beijing this week, according to Bloomberg reporting Monday citing a White House official. The summit with Xi Jinping is scheduled for Thursday and Friday, and will be the first U.S. presidential state visit to China since 2017.

Why It Matters: For investors, the Musk/Cook attendance signals the administration wants visible American CEO deliverables -- Tesla's Shanghai operations and Apple's iPhone supply chain are the two biggest U.S. corporate footprints in China. Expect headline-grabbing purchase commitments and possibly a tariff-suspension extension framework. For consumers, anything that defuses the November 10 tariff cliff supports goods disinflation into year-end.

What to Watch: The "Board of Trade" announcement framework already sketched out in working-level talks, soybean and Boeing purchase commitments, and any Taiwan-language softening that Wang Yi has been signaling Beijing wants.

Source: Reuters

6. Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing Headlines the Week's Geopolitical Calendar

The News: President Trump arrives in Beijing on Thursday for the first U.S. state visit to China since 2017. The two-day summit will cover Iran and the Hormuz crisis, Taiwan, trade, rare earths, and artificial intelligence. China's leverage has shifted from tariffs to critical minerals and rare-earth magnets that underpin both military and advanced-manufacturing supply chains. CSIS analysts expect a "Board of Trade" framework announcement and Chinese purchase commitments for soybeans and Boeing aircraft.

Why It Matters: For investors, the November 10 tariff suspension expiry needs a multi-year framework to be priced into China-exposed multiples -- Chinese ADRs are 7% behind the S&P 500 year-to-date with the deal as the unlocking catalyst. For consumers, a rare-earths agreement matters more than tariff headlines: 90% of U.S. rare-earth magnet supply still flows through China.

What to Watch: Friday's joint statement, any concrete rare-earth export-license commitments, and Taiwan policy language. A handshake on Hormuz cooperation would also reset the Iran trade.

Source: CSIS

7. Japanese Yen Becomes the Currency Story U.S. Investors Should Be Watching

The News: Morningstar strategists flagged the Japanese yen as the most important currency move for U.S. investors heading into next week, citing the Bank of Japan's evolving policy normalization and the U.S. Treasury yield differential. The yen has weakened roughly 4% against the dollar over the last month as Treasury yields edged higher.

Why It Matters: For investors, a weaker yen supports Japanese exporters -- which is why the Nikkei surged to 62,834 last week -- but a sustained move past 160 yen per dollar would likely prompt BOJ intervention and roil global rates. The yen carry trade unwind in August 2024 was a one-week, 8% S&P drawdown; nobody wants a repeat. For consumers, dollar strength against the yen lowers prices on Japanese imports -- cars, electronics, sake.

What to Watch: BOJ commentary at the late-June meeting and any U.S. Treasury verbal intervention on dollar strength.

Source: Morningstar

8. China Tariff Suspension Clock Now 6 Months From Expiry

The News: With the U.S.-China reciprocal tariff suspension running through November 10, the Trump-Xi Beijing summit becomes the structural negotiation moment. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has signaled to Secretary Rubio that Taiwan is "the biggest risk" in the relationship -- effectively telegraphing that Beijing wants Taiwan-language adjustments in exchange for cooperation on bilateral trade and Iran.

Why It Matters: For investors, the bullish case for Chinese ADRs (KWEB up only 4% YTD versus S&P up 7.6%) is a multi-year framework that removes the recurring tariff cliff. The bearish case is that any Taiwan concession draws bipartisan congressional opposition. For consumers, a deal extends low-cost goods import access; no deal means a tariff snapback before holiday shopping.

What to Watch: Whether the joint statement Friday explicitly extends the tariff suspension past November 10. Anything short of an extension is read as a "summit failure" by Chinese-exposed names.

Source: Council on Foreign Relations

Q: What's the difference between a poorly dressed man on a tricycle and a well-dressed man on a bicycle?

A: Why attire of course.

The discount between a security's intrinsic value and its market price -- the buffer an investor demands to protect against analytical error, unexpected events, and bad luck. Popularized by Benjamin Graham and refined by Warren Buffett, it is the cornerstone of value investing.

Usage: "Buying the consumer staples leader at 14x earnings when peers trade at 22x gave the fund a 35% margin of safety if the multiple compresses."

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