Good Afternoon. If yesterday was "ceasefire, probably," today is "deal, probably." An Axios report Wednesday morning that the White House believes it is "nearing a consensus with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding" sent oil into freefall, equities to new record highs, and the dollar lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new closing records as semiconductors led — AMD posted a blowout Q1 and a $11.2 billion Q2 revenue guide, sending shares up 15-19%. Disney beat under new CEO Josh Damaro, Uber gained 9% on a strong gross-bookings outlook, and Novo Nordisk raised its full-year guide on a record Wegovy pill launch. ADP showed 109,000 private jobs added in April. A risk-on Wednesday across asset classes.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Stocks Reach New Records on U.S.-Iran "Peace Memo" Report

The News: Axios reported Wednesday that the White House believes it is "nearing a consensus with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict and establishing a foundation for more comprehensive nuclear discussions." Iran's foreign ministry confirmed to CNBC it was "assessing" the U.S. proposal. President Trump halted Project Freedom, the U.S. naval escort operation through the Strait of Hormuz, citing "significant progress" in talks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new intraday and closing records, gold rose 3.4% to $4,720 an ounce, and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.7% to 97.72.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the cleanest version of the "peace dividend" trade markets have run in decades — equities, gold and Treasuries all higher together as the Hormuz risk premium unwinds out of every asset class at once. The fact that gold is rallying alongside stocks is the tell; that combination usually requires a falling real yield, which is what a successful diplomatic resolution would deliver. For consumers, the practical signal is the gas pump — a sustained move under $95 WTI returns Memorial Day prices to a sub-$3.50 average.

What to Watch: Whether Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi names a venue for Round 2 of nuclear talks, and whether the IRGC publicly endorses the MOU. A breakdown in the next 48 hours would reverse most of today's move.

Source: Investopedia

2. AMD Blows Out Q1 and Guides Q2 Revenue to $11.2 Billion

The News: AMD reported Q1 2026 revenue of $10.25 billion, up 38% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin of 55%, non-GAAP operating income of $2.54 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.37 — well above the consensus of about $1.30 on $9.84 billion in revenue. Data center segment revenue grew 57% to $5.8 billion on EPYC and Instinct GPU strength. Client and gaming revenue climbed 23% to $3.6 billion. AMD guided Q2 to roughly $11.2 billion in revenue (plus or minus $300 million), implying 46% year-over-year growth, and 56% non-GAAP gross margin. Shares advanced 15% in after-hours trading and added another 19% intraday Wednesday to roughly $360 — a fresh record high.

Why It Matters: For investors, this is the cleanest cross-check on the Palantir AI commercial signal — the $5.8 billion data center number with a 57% growth rate proves AI inferencing demand is showing up in real shipments, not just bookings. Lisa Su's commentary that MI450 customer forecasts are "exceeding our initial expectations" is the line that re-rated the stock today. For consumers, the Ryzen X3D cycle is what is driving 26% growth in client revenue, which keeps a lid on premium gaming-laptop and desktop pricing into back-to-school.

What to Watch: The MI355X and MI450 ramp commentary on the call, whether the Helios rack-scale AI roadmap pulls in any new sovereign-AI customers, and the next round of Samsung HBM4 supply guarantees.

Source: AMD IR and CNBC

3. Disney Beats and Eyes Double-Digit FY27 Earnings Growth

The News: Walt Disney reported fiscal Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.57 on revenue of $25.2 billion, topping consensus of $1.50 and $24.85 billion. Streaming subscribers and operating profit advanced, the experiences segment held up internationally, and U.S. parks attendance dipped modestly in the quarter. New CEO Josh D'Amaro, in his first earnings call since taking over from Bob Iger in March, laid out a vision targeting double-digit earnings growth in fiscal 2027 with continued ESPN streaming momentum, an Apple TV+ content tie-up under review, and an explicit statement that the company is not currently planning to spin off ESPN or ABC. Shares advanced about 4% — the best single-session gain in a year.

Why It Matters: For investors, the FY27 double-digit EPS framing is the medium-term story bulls have been waiting for since the strikes. The "we are not breaking up" language is a hold for sum-of-the-parts buyers, but the cash-flow framing under D'Amaro tilts the bull thesis back toward parks plus streaming margin expansion. For consumers, the U.S. parks attendance dip is the practical read — Disney is leaning on international growth and per-capita ticket pricing rather than U.S. footfalls.

What to Watch: The streaming bundling architecture with Apple TV+, ESPN flagship subscriber pacing, and any commentary on the parks consumer in the back half.

Source: WSJ and Yahoo Finance

4. Uber Q1 Revenue Light, But Strong Q2 Bookings Guide Drives Shares Up 9%

The News: Uber reported Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.72, a penny ahead of the $0.71 consensus, on revenue of $13.2 billion that fell about $76 million short of Wall Street's $13.28 billion estimate. Gross bookings advanced 21% year over year to $53.7 billion, mobility revenue grew 5% to $6.8 billion, and the delivery segment grew 14% to roughly $5 billion. The company recorded a $1.5 billion non-cash equity revaluation hit, taking GAAP net income down to $263 million. Uber announced a record $3 billion share repurchase this quarter, and management guided Q2 gross bookings to $56.25–$57.75 billion, above the $56.17 billion consensus. Shares advanced about 9% intraday.

Why It Matters: For investors, the Q2 bookings range is the entire story — at the midpoint, Uber is implying mid-teens gross-bookings growth one full year into the cycle, plus accelerating free cash flow and the largest buyback in company history. For consumers, the 21% gross-bookings growth shows ride-hailing demand is durable even as airline travel softens; the delivery side is now the fastest-growing segment.

What to Watch: Mobility take-rate trend, the autonomous Waymo partnership economic split, and any disclosure on Eats restaurant attach rates with new AI ordering tools.

Source: CNBC

5. ADP Shows 109,000 Private Jobs Added in April

The News: Private sector employment increased by 109,000 jobs in April, up from a downwardly revised 62,000 in March, while annual pay grew 4.4% year over year, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning. Goods-producing industries added 22,000 jobs and service-providing industries added 87,000, with leisure/hospitality and education/health leading. Pay gains for job-stayers held at 4.4% and for job-changers at 6.7%, the narrowest spread in 18 months.

Why It Matters: For investors, the ADP number is the warm-up for Friday's BLS nonfarm payrolls report — at 109,000 private adds, the labor market is still expanding but at a pace materially below the 200,000-plus monthly trend Powell flagged at the April FOMC. The narrowing pay spread between job-stayers and job-changers means employers are no longer paying premiums to hire; that disinflation channel is what gives the Fed room to consider cuts later this year. For consumers, the wage-growth deceleration is finally running below shelter and services inflation, which is what keeps real wages from compressing.

What to Watch: Friday's NFP consensus of about 175,000, the unemployment rate (4.2% expected), and average hourly earnings growth.

Source: ADP Media Center

6. Oil Collapses Nearly 9% on Iran Deal Hopes

The News: WTI crude futures fell nearly 9% Wednesday to roughly $93 a barrel and Brent declined 7.7% to about $101, the largest single-session decline for both contracts in more than a year, after the Axios report that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a one-page MOU. WTI is now down roughly 11% on the week, and the curve has unwound nearly all of the Hormuz war premium that built up over the past month. Energy was the worst-performing S&P sector intraday with integrated oils and shale names declining 4-6%.

Why It Matters: For investors, the speed of the unwind is the most important data point — when a war premium of $10-12 a barrel comes out in 36 hours, the implied volatility on the curve resets, which makes selling upside calls in energy attractive into Friday's expiry. For consumers, the 9% drop in WTI is worth roughly 25-30 cents per gallon at the pump within two weeks. That single move is the most consumer-positive headline of the spring.

What to Watch: Wednesday afternoon's EIA inventory report (consensus +1.5 million barrel build), OPEC+ commentary on whether the group accelerates the planned production unwind, and SPR refill activity.

Source: CNBC

7. Korea KOSPI Surges 6.45% to 7,385; Samsung Tops $1 Trillion

The News: South Korea's KOSPI advanced 6.45% Wednesday to close at a record 7,384.56 — its third record close in four sessions — as Samsung Electronics climbed more than 14% to surpass a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time. The benchmark is now up more than 70% year over year. The pan-European Stoxx 600 advanced 2.1% on the same Iran-deal news, with mining and autos up roughly 4.5% and London, Paris and Frankfurt each gaining more than 2%. China's CSI 300 rose 1.4% as it resumed trading after the Labor Day holiday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.6% and the Hang Seng Tech index gained 1.05%.

Why It Matters: For investors, Samsung's $1 trillion mark and the KOSPI's 70% annual gain confirm the AI memory cycle is the cleanest expression of the broader AI capex cycle anywhere in global equities. The Stoxx 600 finally posting a clean gain on a positive geopolitical catalyst — after months of underperforming on tariff fears — suggests European cyclicals have room to run if the Iran path holds. For consumers, $1 trillion Samsung means HBM4 capacity allocation is now a global commodity story, with implications for everything from gaming consoles to smartphones.

What to Watch: Whether the Bank of Korea moves to slow the won's appreciation, the EU Commission's response to Tuesday's auto tariff implementation, and the next round of Samsung-AMD HBM supply commitments.

Source: CNBC

8. Novo Nordisk Raises Full-Year Guide on Wegovy Pill Launch

The News: Novo Nordisk reported Q1 2026 reported sales of DKK 96.8 billion (about $15.2 billion), up 32% at constant exchange rates, with reported operating profit up 65% to DKK 59.6 billion. Adjusted sales declined 4% and adjusted operating profit fell 6% on lower realized U.S. prices. The Wegovy oral pill posted DKK 2.3 billion in Q1 sales with more than 2 million prescriptions since launch and roughly 207,000 weekly scripts at mid-April — the strongest GLP-1 launch in U.S. history. Novo raised full-year 2026 adjusted sales guidance to a range of -4% to -12% (improved from the prior -5% to -13%), citing higher GLP-1 expectations. Shares advanced about 7% intraday.

Why It Matters: For investors, the Wegovy pill ramp is the one bull catalyst the Street had been waiting for to offset U.S. price compression. About 80% of new pill users are GLP-1 naive, which means Novo is expanding the obesity-care addressable market rather than cannibalizing the injectable franchise. For consumers, the $150 million pipeline-fill component means supply scaling is real — the prescription bottleneck that has plagued semaglutide for two years is finally easing.

What to Watch: Whether U.S. PBM coverage parity holds through year-end, and the timing of international rollouts.

Source: CNBC

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A: Tweethearts.

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