Good Afternoon. On this day in 1995, Microsoft put Windows 95 on store shelves and made the Start button a global habit.

Thirty-one years later, Wall Street’s doing the opposite: it’s hovering over pause before Nvidia reports Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday.

Oil and bond yields eased, but the market hasn’t settled the two questions underneath the week—whether AI spending is still paying off and whether inflation will force rates higher.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

🔢 Big number:

Wall Street’s starting a catalyst-heavy week with more patience than conviction. The S&P 500 was down close to 0.3%, the Dow was up close to 0.3%, and the technology-heavy market was down close to 1.0% as lower oil and Treasury yields couldn’t fully offset caution around AI spending.

The news: Nvidia reports Wednesday, and investors aren’t just looking for another large revenue number—they’re looking for proof that customers can turn expensive chips into durable profits. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at Jackson Hole, where he’ll face pressure to explain whether inflation and high long-term borrowing costs require another rate increase. The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.70% from 4.74% Friday, while Brent crude fell roughly 2.3% to about $90.55.

Big picture: A lower yield can help valuations, but it can’t erase the week’s event risk. If Nvidia’s outlook or Warsh’s message disappoints, today’s pause doesn’t leave much room between expensive expectations and a sharper repricing.

Source: Associated Press

UPS is putting more than $2 billion into international, healthcare, and supply-chain operations from 2024 through 2028. The plan isn’t simply about moving more boxes; it’s about giving customers more control when trade rules, routes, and delivery requirements keep changing.

The news: Projects include a Clark Airport hub in the Philippines expected in late 2026, a Canadian facility planned for 2027, and a Hong Kong air hub scheduled for 2028. UPS has also added 27 temperature-controlled freight cross-docks and expanded high-frequency routes connecting Europe, Asia, and Australia. It’s combining air, ground, customs brokerage, distribution, and tracking so customers aren’t stitching together as many handoffs themselves.

What’s next: The spending won’t pay off just because the buildings open on time; it’ll need to win higher-value shipments in healthcare, technology, automotive, and industrial manufacturing. If trade friction stays elevated, a network that reduces delays and paperwork doesn’t look like excess capacity—it looks like insurance customers may pay to use.

Source: UPS

USA Rare Earth has completed $1.55 billion of funding for a special-purpose vehicle that would purchase all of Serra Verde’s Phase 1 rare-earth output. The structure isn’t a routine corporate financing because the U.S. government is anchoring both the funding and the demand.

The news: The package includes a $750 million government commitment, a pledge to buy at least $300 million of products over five years, and a bank credit facility of as much as $500 million. That capital supports USA Rare Earth’s planned purchase of Serra Verde, whose Pela Ema mine in Brazil would extend the company’s supply footprint beyond the U.S. Shareholders are scheduled to vote on the transaction on August 28, so the funding milestone isn’t the final closing condition.

Bottom line: Western governments don’t want critical-mineral security to depend on a single geography, and this deal shows they’re willing to finance inventory as well as mines. The policy support lowers one risk, but it’s still up to the operator to turn guaranteed funding and demand into reliable production.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Tesla has stopped selling its premium solar-roof tiles nearly a decade after introducing them as a sleeker alternative to traditional panels. The product’s website now redirects shoppers to conventional solar panels, so this isn’t merely a marketing refresh.

The news: Elon Musk introduced the roof in 2016, and Tesla later targeted 1,000 installations per week, but industry estimates said adoption never approached that pace. The company hasn’t abandoned solar: it’s delivering conventional panels made in Buffalo and has filed plans for a $10.1 billion solar-cell factory outside Houston that could create 9,712 jobs. The shift separates a product that struggled to scale from a manufacturing ambition that remains very large.

Big picture: A technically impressive product won’t become a good business if installation costs, contractor capacity, and customer demand don’t line up. Tesla’s redirect is a useful reminder that ending an experiment can free capital and attention for a simpler product with a clearer route to volume.

Source: Reuters

Altria’s Philip Morris USA has entered a contract-manufacturing arrangement with non-U.S. affiliates of Philip Morris International. The former corporate relatives aren’t recombining, and the agreement won’t materially change either company’s 2026 results.

The news: Altria says the arrangement should improve the efficiency of its traditional tobacco-product operations and support its 2028 goals. Each company will retain its own distribution, commercialization, and regulatory responsibilities, so they’ll share selected manufacturing capacity without sharing the market-facing business. That boundary matters because operational cooperation doesn’t remove the regulatory and demand risks each side carries.

What’s next: The arrangement isn’t a near-term earnings catalyst, but it can show whether old rivals can use existing factories more efficiently as cigarette volumes decline. If the savings don’t emerge, the deal’s strategic language won’t compensate for underused capacity.

Source: Altria

Shein has launched a Hong Kong offering that could raise as much as HK$13.9 billion, or roughly $1.8 billion, at a valuation near $27 billion. That’s a major reset from its $98.2 billion private-market peak in 2022, and the discount is telling a fuller story than the cash raise.

The news: The fast-fashion retailer plans to issue 280 million new shares, and it’s reserving 10% for Hong Kong buyers while placing 90% internationally. Revenue growth slowed to 1.1% in the first quarter, when Shein posted a $99 million net loss, and the removal of low-value import-tax exemptions in the U.S. and Europe has weakened part of its low-cost model. Allotment results are expected August 31, with trading scheduled to begin September 1.

Bottom line: Public markets don’t have to honor a private valuation when growth and trade rules have changed. Shein can still raise useful capital, but it’ll enter the market with less room to miss on margins, compliance, or demand.

Source: Caixin Global

PDD Holdings grew second-quarter revenue 8% to RMB112.4 billion, or about $16.6 billion, while operating profit rose 8% to RMB27.8 billion. Net income still fell 12%, which shows the platform’s growth hasn’t translated evenly through the income statement.

The news: Transaction-services revenue increased 13%, but total operating expenses also climbed 13% to RMB36.6 billion as sales and marketing costs rose. Management says it’s prioritizing merchant support, consumer trust, and compliance while global trade rules evolve. PDD can afford the investment—cash, equivalents, and short-term investments reached RMB456.4 billion—but that cushion doesn’t make every program productive.

Big picture: E-commerce platforms can’t treat trust and merchant health as side projects when regulators and shoppers are watching both. PDD’s next test isn’t whether it can spend more; it’s whether those investments preserve growth without allowing profit to keep moving the other way.

Source: PDD Holdings

Six European Union countries want finance ministers to discuss an EU-wide tax on oil-company windfall profits in September. The proposal isn’t law, but it’s a clear warning that political risk rises when energy producers’ earnings and households’ bills move in opposite directions.

The news: Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and Austria want the topic on the September 18–19 meeting agenda. Their letter says oil has climbed roughly 25% since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, while European diesel has risen more than 70% and gasoline around 20%. The ministers also want foreign profits considered and an investigation into refinery margins completed quickly, so the debate won’t stop at domestic crude production.

What’s next: Agreement across 27 member states won’t come easily, especially when countries have different energy mixes and tax systems. Oil companies should still prepare for a broader definition of taxable crisis profits, while industrial users can’t assume political relief will arrive before high fuel costs reach contracts and consumer prices.

Source: Reuters

Q: Why’d the delivery route bring a pencil?

A: It wanted to draw a better line.

A strategy that lines up expected portfolio income and maturities with planned expenses, so it’s less likely you’ll need to sell at a bad time.

In a sentence: With rates and AI stocks awaiting major catalysts, cash flow matching can keep a near-term bill from depending on what markets do this week.

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