In partnership with
Good Afternoon. On October 14, 1947, Chuck Yeager became the first pilot to exceed the speed of sound in level flight. The Bell X-1’s instruments helped turn a remarkable flight into a measurable achievement. Today’s economic milestones need a careful look at the instruments, too.
Inflation’s headline is rising, but gasoline explains much of the move. Bank earnings and Singapore’s growth report also look different once you separate the parts. We’ve got the numbers that show where the momentum comes from.
—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor
💰 Markets
S&P 500 | |
Dow Jones | |
NASDAQ 100 | |
iShares 7–10 Year Treasury | |
Bitcoin | |
Volatility Index |
🔍 Today’s Vibe
🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥
Assets and equipment: BlackRock brings in another $205 billion of net inflows, while ASML says planned supply won’t fully meet customers’ demand in 2027 and 2028. Financial assets and the machines behind AI investment are attracting different kinds of commitments.
🥶 What’s Not: 🥶
The household budget: U.S. gasoline prices jump in September, and mortgage applications fall again as borrowing costs remain elevated. Everyday transportation and the decision to buy a home both face a higher cost hurdle.
🔢 Big number: 9.1% — September’s monthly increase in gasoline prices. The category accounted for more than half of the overall consumer-price increase, giving a small part of the shopping basket a large role in today’s inflation report.
Cities Are Running Out of Salt Before Winter Even Starts
Road salt is one of those things nobody thinks about until plow trucks come back empty, and this year that's happening before the first snowfall. Some cities haven't gotten a single bid for winter supply, while others are paying nearly double last year's price.
North America doesn't mine enough of its own, which is why it ships in 8 to 10 million tonnes from places like Egypt and Chile, two weeks away by boat.
Atlas Salt (TSXV: SALT | OTCQX: SALQF) is building a mine in Newfoundland near a deepwater port where ships can reach Boston in three days. With salt, the real cost is in shipping, and CEO Nolan Peterson says the difference is so big that overseas producers could give their salt away and still come out more expensive than Atlas. The project is shovel-ready and projected to generate roughly C$188 million a year in free cash flow.
🇺🇸 Stateside
Fuel stop in Pennsylvania Photo credit
Gasoline gives inflation another push
The gas pump did much of the lifting in September’s inflation report. Consumer prices rose 0.6% from August, bringing the annual increase to 3.7%. Gasoline alone rose 9.1% during the month and accounted for more than half of the increase in the overall index.
The news: Energy prices rose 5.2%, while shelter increased 0.4%. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for the month. Those measures answer different questions: the headline captures the basket households actually pay for, while the measure excluding food and energy helps distinguish the broader trend from categories that can change sharply. A smaller increase outside energy doesn’t undo the extra dollars needed to fill a tank.
What’s next: Watch whether the next reports show fuel pressure spreading into other prices or easing at the source. September’s result tells us how the basket changed, not that every item became 3.7% more expensive. Transportation needs, housing costs and spending choices make the experience different from one household to another. That’s why the components matter alongside the national average.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bank of America absorbs a settlement charge
Bank of America’s customer businesses grew, but a regulatory settlement reduced the earnings shareholders received. Third-quarter net income was $6.9 billion, compared with $8.3 billion a year earlier. The quarter included a $1.2 billion charge tied to regulatory orders concerning compliance programs.
The news: Revenue rose 3% to $30 billion, with net interest income increasing 8% to $16.4 billion. The bank cited higher loan and deposit balances and the repricing of fixed-rate assets among the drivers. Excluding the settlement charge, adjusted net income was $8.1 billion and adjusted earnings were $1.08 a share, versus reported earnings of $0.91. Even the adjusted profit remained below the previous year’s reported result.
Big picture: The reconciliation separates a regulatory cost from the income earned by the banking business. Both belong in the assessment: the charge is a real cost, and the underlying revenue trend helps explain customer activity. Provisions for credit losses were roughly unchanged from a year earlier. Follow that credit measure alongside lending growth to see whether additional interest income continues to come with manageable losses.
Source: Bank of America
BlackRock gathers another wave of investor assets
BlackRock ended the quarter managing $15.5 trillion, after attracting $205 billion in net inflows during the period. Money came into several parts of its business, including exchange-traded funds, private markets, systematic active equities and cash products. The result gives a broader picture than one popular fund or investment theme.
The news: Revenue increased 19% from a year earlier. BlackRock attributed the gain to market performance, organic growth in base fees, higher performance fees and technology services. Technology services and subscription revenue grew 14%. Reported diluted earnings per share increased 25%, while adjusted earnings grew 38%; the adjusted result excludes a noncash change in acquisition-related contingent consideration. Those are distinct earnings measures, rather than interchangeable descriptions of growth.
Bottom line: Assets under management can rise because markets appreciate or because clients add money. Net inflows help isolate the second source, while fee growth shows how the asset base translates into revenue. Technology subscriptions add a separate income stream. A larger total asset balance is useful context, but the mix of inflows, markets and fees explains more about what could sustain the business.
Source: BlackRock
Morgan Stanley’s wealth business adds new assets
Morgan Stanley reported third-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion, up from $18.2 billion a year earlier. Net income reached $4.9 billion, compared with $4.6 billion, and diluted earnings rose to $3.03 a share. Revenue and profit both improved, though they didn’t increase at the same pace.
The news: Wealth Management reported record revenue and added $232 billion in net new assets, including $80 billion of fee-based flows. Management also pointed to global strength in Institutional Securities, led by its equities business. The wealth figures measure clients bringing assets into the business; they don’t mean the bank earned $232 billion of revenue. Fee-based flows identify assets that can support ongoing fees, while trading activity contributes through a different channel.
What’s next: Follow whether new client assets become a durable source of wealth-management revenue, alongside the more variable contribution from institutional markets. The businesses have different sensitivities to market conditions and client decisions. Today’s result shows both contributing to a larger revenue base. Future quarters will help reveal whether that growth keeps producing comparable gains in profit after the cost of serving those clients.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Higher borrowing costs restrain mortgage applications
Mortgage application activity fell 2.7% in the week ending October 9, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. Both home-purchase and refinancing applications declined. The weekly measure adds another indication that the cost of financing a home is affecting borrowers’ willingness to act.
The news: Haver’s account of the survey puts the effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 7.75%, up from 7.73% the previous week. An effective rate includes the effect of fees and differs from the contract rate often quoted in headlines. Application activity was 37.2% below its level a year earlier. These figures describe requests for financing, rather than completed transactions or the number of homes sold.
Big picture: A prospective buyer has to cover the monthly payment as well as the purchase price. Existing owners considering a refinance need a new loan to improve enough on their current terms to justify the costs. Higher rates can discourage both groups for different reasons. Watch purchase and refinancing activity separately; a rebound in one doesn’t necessarily mean the other has recovered, or that the broader housing market has turned.
Source: Haver Analytics
Turn your expertise into working software
Describe what you want to build
Get real software, not a prototype
Lovable handles payments, logins, databases
Change any detail yourself, any time
Put it in front of customers this week
Discount of $5 applies to first month of any paid plan. You need to sign up via this webpage in order to claim the discount. The discount applies to new and returning users without an active paid plan. Terms apply.
🌎 Around The World
Container terminal in Singapore Photo credit
Singapore’s growth slows while trade gathers pace
Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% from a year earlier in the third quarter, according to advance estimates released today. That’s slower than the second quarter’s 6.2%, but still an expansion. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, growth eased to 1.1% from 1.5%.
The news: Manufacturing grew 7.5% from a year earlier, down from 12.9% in the previous quarter. Construction accelerated to 8.8%. Wholesale and retail trade together with transportation and storage grew 8%, helped by machinery and equipment trade alongside stronger electronics exports. The combined grouping includes industries moving in different directions: the release says retail trade was the exception to expansion within that group.
Bottom line: This is an early estimate based largely on July and August data, so revisions can change the result. The distinction between slowing overall growth and stronger activity in selected trade industries is useful for a major commercial hub. A softer growth rate doesn’t mean output fell, and stronger trade doesn’t automatically describe domestic retail demand. The next complete estimate will offer a fuller view of those differences.
China’s exports accelerate and widen its surplus
China’s September exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms, according to customs figures released today. Imports also grew rapidly, rising 31%. The difference between the two left the country with a monthly trade surplus of $133.5 billion.
The news: Export growth accelerated from 25% in August and exceeded economists’ expectations for 25.5%. Import growth also beat the forecast. Demand for high-tech goods connected to global AI investment has supported exporters, even as domestic consumption and the property sector remain challenges. The figures show the value of goods crossing borders; they don’t directly measure the number of products shipped or the profit earned by their manufacturers.
What’s next: Watch whether overseas demand continues to support factories as the year ends. A widening surplus can coexist with rising imports when exports grow by enough, so the balance alone isn’t a verdict on import demand. Changes in prices, product mix and exchange rates can also affect values reported in dollars. Those distinctions matter when assessing how much of the trade strength feeds into broader economic growth.
Source: Investing.com
ASML’s customers want more than planned capacity
ASML reported record quarterly sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5 billion. The Dutch chip-equipment supplier also said its currently planned supply for 2027 and 2028 won’t fully meet customers’ expected demand. Strong appetite for machines is now a capacity question as well as a sales opportunity.
The news: Service and upgrade sales reached €3.3 billion, above guidance, as customers sought more productivity from installed equipment. Gross margin was 57.5%. ASML expects full-year sales of €44 billion to €45 billion and is investigating additional capacity beyond the increase it had previously discussed for 2028. Some customers have expressed interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030; that interest is not yet equivalent to completed orders or delivered systems.
Big picture: Chipmakers can add new machines or get more output from the equipment they already own. ASML participates in both routes, which helps explain the contribution from upgrades today. Expanding supply also takes time, while customers’ demand forecasts can change. Follow the progress of capacity plans and the conversion of customer interest into orders, rather than treating a long planning horizon as revenue already secured.
Source: ASML
💰 Money Moves
|
🥸 Dad Joke of the Day
Q: Why did the banana go to the doctor?
A: Because it wasn’t peeling well.
Stop Making Shoppers Spell It Out
“Running shos” shouldn’t return zero results. Neither should “red waterprof trail runners under $150.”
Traditional search needs exact keywords. Gladly understands what shoppers mean, typos and all, and turns dead-end searches into products that fit what they asked for.
📖 Vocab Word of the Day
Price elasticity: An MBA concept measuring how much demand changes when a product’s price changes. Highly elastic demand responds strongly; less elastic demand changes relatively little.
In a sentence: “The retailer studies price elasticity before raising prices, because customers might buy fewer items or switch to another store.”
📚 Build a Better Inbox
📬 Need more smart reads? See newsletters we recommend →
You can choose one, a few, or none. Completely up to you.
