Good Afternoon. Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export terminal, wiping out 17% of capacity for up to five years. Brent crude spiked past $116, European gas prices surged 30%, and the White House is now floating the idea of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that's already at sea. Meanwhile, in a parallel universe where things actually work, Micron reported the kind of quarter that makes analysts recalibrate their spreadsheets. Third straight day of red for stocks, but a very different kind of day underneath the surface.

—Rosie, Wyatt, Evan & Conor

🔥 What’s Hot: 🔥

🥶 What’s Not: 🥶

1. Micron Just Printed the Earnings Report of the Year and It's Not Even Close

The News: Micron Technology reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $23.86 billion — crushing the $19.97 billion FactSet estimate by nearly $4 billion. That's up 196% year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS hit $12.20, gross margins reached 74.9%, and the company generated $6.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron set "new records across revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow." Q3 guidance: $33.5 billion in revenue (another record) at roughly 81% gross margins.

Why It Matters: This isn't just a beat — it's a reclassification event. Micron was a cyclical commodity chipmaker a year ago; now it's an AI infrastructure monopoly printing money at the rate of $14 billion per quarter. For investors, the Q3 revenue guide of $33.5 billion (a 40% sequential jump) tells you AI memory demand isn't plateauing — it's accelerating. The 30% dividend hike is the cherry on top.

What to Watch: How MU stock reacts in Thursday's session. Expectations were already sky-high at a $500 billion market cap. The Q3 guidance should keep the bull case alive, but any hiccup on supply constraints (Micron noted it "can supply only a fraction of what its key customers need") could create volatility.

Source: GlobeNewsWire

2. Brent Crude Blows Past $116 as the Energy War Enters a New Phase

The News: Brent crude surged past $116 per barrel on Thursday — briefly touching $119 intraday — after Iran retaliated against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE for Israel's strike on the South Pars gas field. WTI hovered near $97. European natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF benchmark spiked over 30%, and LNG prices jumped 25%. An Iranian drone also struck a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea coast.

Why It Matters: We've moved from "Strait of Hormuz risk" to "the entire Gulf energy corridor is under attack." Brent has gone from $70 before the war to $116 in three weeks — a 66% surge that is now feeding directly into consumer prices, corporate margins, and central bank calculus. For investors, the old playbook of "buy energy, sell everything else" is working, but the magnitude of this move is starting to threaten broader economic stability.

What to Watch: Whether Brent holds above $110 into the weekend. If it does, expect gasoline to push well past $4 nationally and for the inflation narrative to completely overwhelm any remaining rate-cut hopes.

Source: CNBC

3. The White House Floats Lifting Sanctions on Iranian Oil Already at Sea

The News: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that the U.S. is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that is already in transit on tankers, in an effort to boost global supply and ease soaring energy prices. The move would effectively release stranded Iranian crude onto the market without requiring any new production — a creative workaround that acknowledges the awkwardness of bombing a country while also needing its oil.

Why It Matters: This is a tacit admission that the energy price spike from the Iran war is becoming politically untenable. For consumers, releasing sanctioned oil would add modest supply — but the signal matters more than the barrels. It tells the market that Washington is willing to improvise to keep prices from spiraling further. For traders, it introduces a new variable into the already-chaotic oil calculus.

What to Watch: How much oil is actually sitting in stranded tankers (estimates vary from 50 to 90 million barrels), and whether this becomes a formal policy or remains trial-balloon territory.

Source: Barron's

4. Darden Restaurants Raises Guidance Again — Olive Garden Is Eating Well

The News: Darden Restaurants, parent of Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Ruth's Chris, reported Q3 earnings roughly in line with estimates — $2.95 EPS on $3.35 billion in revenue, up 5.9% year-over-year. The real story: Darden raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 9.5% (from 8.5%–9.3%) and bumped comparable sales guidance to 4.5% (from 3.5%–4.3%). LongHorn led the pack with +7.2% comps. DRI shares rose over 1.5%.

Why It Matters: When Olive Garden raises guidance in an economy worried about recession, it tells you the American consumer hasn't stopped dining out — at least not at the mid-market. This is the second consecutive quarter of upward revisions from Darden. For investors, the contrast with yesterday's General Mills miss is telling: consumers may be trading down at the grocery store but still treating themselves at restaurants.

What to Watch: Whether rising diesel and food input costs start squeezing Darden's margins in Q4. The company navigated this quarter well, but $5 diesel and 2.4% food PPI make the next three months a tougher test.

Source: GuruFocus

5. Jobless Claims Drop to 205,000

The News: Initial jobless claims fell to 205,000 in the week ending March 14, down from 213,000 the prior week and below the 215,000 consensus estimate. The reading continues a multi-week trend of claims hovering near historically low levels, suggesting that despite geopolitical turmoil and energy price shocks, employers aren't cutting staff in meaningful numbers.

Why It Matters: This is the puzzle the Fed can't solve: inflation is running hot (PPI at 3.4% yesterday), but the labor market is solid enough to prevent rate cuts. For the "soft landing" crowd, 205K claims is a data point that says the economy is bending but not breaking. For the "stagflation" crowd, it means the Fed stays trapped — unable to cut rates to stimulate growth because employment hasn't weakened enough to justify it.

What to Watch: Whether energy-sensitive sectors (trucking, logistics, manufacturing) start showing up in claims data in the coming weeks. The $5 diesel and $116 Brent are still relatively fresh shocks — the layoff effects typically lag by 4-6 weeks.

Source: Trading Economics

1. Iran Strikes Qatar's Ras Laffan — 17% of the World's LNG Gone for Up to Five Years

The News: Iranian missile strikes hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City overnight — the world's largest liquefied natural gas export terminal. Qatar called the damage "extensive," and Reuters reported that QatarEnergy's CEO confirmed the attacks wiped out roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter after the U.S., had already paused production at the site earlier this month after an initial drone attack.

Why It Matters: This changes the global energy map. Qatar supplies nearly 20% of the world's LNG, and the damage to Ras Laffan means Europe and Asia will be scrambling for alternative supply for years, not months. European natural gas prices surged 30% on Thursday. For investors in LNG exporters, U.S. gas producers, and shipping companies, this is a structural tailwind. For consumers in Europe and Asia, winter heating bills just got a lot more expensive — permanently.

What to Watch: Qatar's diplomatic response. If Doha breaks with the U.S. coalition over this, it would be the most consequential political fallout of the war so far. Also watch U.S. LNG stocks — they're the obvious beneficiary of any Qatari supply gap.

Source: Reuters

2. Trump Says Israel Struck South Pars Out of "Anger" — Promises It Won't Happen Again

The News: President Trump publicly distanced the U.S. from Israel's Wednesday strike on Iran's South Pars gas field, saying Israel acted out of "anger" following the killing of its citizens in the Ramat Gan missile attack. Trump told reporters there would not be another strike on South Pars and characterized the attack as an Israeli decision, not an American one — despite earlier reports that the strike was carried out with U.S. approval.

Why It Matters: This is remarkable diplomatic distancing in the middle of an active coalition war. For markets, it introduces uncertainty about the U.S.-Israel alignment on energy targets — which has been the primary driver of oil prices. If Israel feels emboldened to act unilaterally on energy infrastructure, the escalation ladder gets harder to control. If the U.S. is genuinely pulling back from energy strikes, it could eventually cap the upside on crude.

What to Watch: Whether Iran reads Trump's comments as genuine or performative. If Tehran interprets it as a green light to keep retaliating on Gulf infrastructure, the energy escalation cycle continues.

Source: Al Jazeera

3. European Gas Prices Surge 30%

The News: European natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF benchmark surged over 30% on Thursday, the sharpest single-day jump since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. natural gas rose 3.8%. LNG spot prices spiked 25%. The moves were triggered by the Ras Laffan attack and the realization that Qatari LNG disruptions — already significant — are now multi-year structural problems, not temporary glitches.

Why It Matters: Europe barely survived the Russia gas decoupling by pivoting to Qatari and U.S. LNG. Now one of those pillars is cracking. For European consumers, this means another winter of high energy bills. For European industry, it means factory competitiveness against the U.S. and Asia takes yet another hit. For U.S. LNG exporters like Cheniere and Tellurian, it's a windfall — but the human cost in energy-importing nations is severe.

What to Watch: Whether the EU announces emergency gas storage measures or new import deals with the U.S. The 2022 playbook is about to get dusted off — but this time, the options are fewer.

Source: New York Times

Q: Why was the calendar so popular?

A: Because it had a lot of dates.

The strategic process of dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories — such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash — based on an investor's goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

"With oil at $116 and bonds selling off alongside stocks, my financial planner said it was time to revisit my asset allocation — turns out 'hope' isn't an asset class."

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